Last Week: 6-10
Overall: 11-21
Well I'm bad. The turning point that I've called before the season though is after week 3. That's when you usually find out what teams true identities really are, what coaches bring to the table, and the spreads aren't as ridiculous. The worst part of all of this is I'm missing on the spreads by a point or on unlucky plays consistently. Baltimore and Cleveland, I just missed, the Pats and Dolphins they couldn't complete the comeback and I missed by half a point, Carolina scored 17 points on San Fran in the last 4 minutes, and Denver got the sack/fumble to complete the spread. My luck has to turn soon... hopefully...
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (EVEN) -> Houston Texans
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -3) -> Denver Broncos
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -1.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills (ARI -4) -> Arizona Cardinals
Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars (BAL -1) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -9.5) -> Miami Dolphins
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (NYG -4.5) -> New York Giants
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (GB -7.5) -> Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -7) -> Minnesota Vikings
San Fransisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -9.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -5.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles (PIT -3.5) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -3) -> Kansas City Chiefs
San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -3) -> Indianapolis Colts
Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys (DAL -7) -> Dallas Cowboys
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (NO -3) -> New Orleans Saints
A couple notes...
- If Belichick wins with Brissett, I promise you for the rest of the season I will not bet against him. The spread could be Pats -10000 and I'm going Pats. Houston is a really, really talented team, and I think they should win this short week game against a rookie QB. I'm sure Belichick will set Brissett up nicely with a lot of short, high percentile throws, but the Texans are too good to beat that way.
- I'm a glutton for punishment, I'm going Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and Oakland after last week. I think all three of these teams are talented, they just need to get back on track and I think they all have good match-ups. It will come down to QB play, and all three young quarterbacks could torch their opposing defenses, or at least not throw their respective games away.
- I can't see Seattle, Carolina, and Green Bay putting up enough points to beat their spreads, but I think all three teams should win.
- Lock of the Week: Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills. The Bills fired their offensive coordinator, yet their defense has been awful. Hmmm. I will take Arizona all day long. Their defense should beat up on the Bills offense, and Carson Palmer should have absolutely no problem moving the chains and putting up points. It would take a tragic Palmer performance to make this game even close.
- Upset of the Week: Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans. Tennessee came up with a big win last week against Detroit (although the Ebron push off call was a shitty call), but Oakland has way, way more talent. Their offense is moving the ball well, and I actually think their defense should bounce back in a sense this week. If the Titans had a better coach, I think they could be legitimately good. Yet here we are, with Mularky running a trash offense for Mariota. Play up to Mariota's strengths, run short crossers, roll him out, and get Derrick Henry the damn ball.
- Washington intrigues me this week. This is 100% a make or break week for Washington, and I truly believe if they lose in week 3, their season is over. The main reason I'm not going with them this week is Kirk. He has been so, so bad these first two weeks, I can't see how they win if he performs like he has been.
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