Thursday 29 October 2015

NFL Predictions: Week 8

So close... I was so close to an 11-3 week, come on Atlanta and Arizona, cover the spread! Oh well. I'm coming off of a good week, and hopefully I can keep that up in week 8.
Last Week: 9-5
Overall: 54-48-3

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (NE -8) -> New England Patriots
Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs (London) (KC -5) -> Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (CHI -1) -> Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -7) -> Atlanta Falcons
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints (NO -3) -> New Orleans Saints
San Fransisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams (STL -8) -> St. Louis Rams
Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns (ARI -4.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -1) -> Cincinnati Bengals
San Diego Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -3) -> San Diego Chargers
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (HOU -4) -> Tennessee Titans
New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders (NYJ -2.5) -> New York Jets
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (SEA -6) -> Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos (GB -3) -> Green Bay Packers
Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -7) -> Indianapolis Colts

A couple notes...
- Very interesting Thursday Night Football game. Miami has been playing with a sense of urgency that we didn't see under Joe Philbin, and they have a lot of momentum on their side. They've been playing good defense, and have a new found running game too. Historically, defense and running the football have been keys to winning on short weeks, but they run into New England at home as well as Bill Belichick who doesn't take too kindly to rookie coaches. He's on an 11-0 streak against rookie coaches and I think that will be extended this week.
- I don't know how Chicago is favoured, but okay, I'll take that all day long.
- Cincinnati and Pittsburgh is another terrific game. Big Ben is coming back, but the Bengals have been on fire. It should be a close one but I think Cincinnati picks up the win in a shootout.
- My vote for game of the week will go to the Packers and Broncos. Both coming off of bye weeks, the Packers offense got healthier and both are undefeated. I do think that Green Bay will win, but not because of Rodgers this week. Green Bay's defense has been quietly incredible this year, and Manning is hurting. All Rodgers has to do is limit the mistakes against the best defense in the league this year, and Green Bay should be 7-0 after this week.
- I'm also taking Detroit after the change in offensive coordinator. Surprise me Detroit, surprise me.
- The Jets vs. the Raiders should be a great game too. A very talented young offense in Oakland, and an extremely talented young defense in New York. It's a good week for football folks.
- Lock of the Week: Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears. This is a tough one, as Adrian Peterson is banged up, but Chicago is just not as talented as Minnesota. Mike Zimmer will bring the heat against Jay Cutler, and Minnesota should capitalize, especially if Peterson plays well.
- Upset of the Week: Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans. Houston is bad. They are just flat out bad. Both of these teams are bad, but Houston shouldn't have a 4 point advantage, so I'm going with Tennessee who kept it close with Atlanta last week.
- Apparently I'm just a masochist when it comes to the Colts. I won't give up on Luck. I actually still think the Panthers are going to win this game, but it will be close. Cam Newton has been terrific, but there offense isn't built to put up points against teams like the Pats offense is. Luck hasn't been good this year, but he is still a very talented quarterback and at some point it should turn around. The deciding factor for this game will be the Colts O-line against the Panthers D-line. I don't expect the Colts O-line to win that matchup, but if they can be solid for some of the game, the Colts have a chance.

Thursday 22 October 2015

NFL Predictions: Week 7

Interesting week last week. Just in general a great week of football, and I picked a great upset for Seattle and Carolina but I am absolutely shocked at the outcome of Arizona and Pittsburgh. Shocked. Martavis Bryant is a game changer.
Last Week: 7-6-1
Overall: 45-43-3

Seattle Seahawks @ San Fransisco 49ers (SEA -6.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars (BUF -4) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland Browns @ St. Louis Rams (STL -6) -> St. Louis Rams
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (PIT -2.5) -> Kansas City Chiefs
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -4) -> Miami Dolphins
New York Jets @ New England Patriots (NE -9) -> New York Jets
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (MIN -2.5) -> Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans (ATL -4.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins (WAS -3.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -4.5) -> Indianapolis Colts
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers (SD -4) -> San Diego Chargers
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (NYG -3.5) -> New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panther (CAR -3) -> Carolina Panthers
Baltimore Ravens @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -9) -> Arizona Cardinals

A couple notes...
- I'm predicting a lot of upsets against the spread this week. I'm going with my gut and I think there will actually be a lot of close games this week.
- I don't think Seattle will lose to San Fransisco, but I think they will win by less than a touchdown.
- Jacksonville is going to keep it close with Tyrod Taylor out, and they even have a shot at winning if Bortles is on his game.
- The Rams are going to have a huge week behind a monster game from Todd Gurley. Coming off of a bye week, the Rams should be in a good position to hold off the Cleveland Browns shockingly solid passing attack and come away with a big win.
- Both the Pats and Panthers should come out with wins this week, although I think the Jets and Pats game will be really close.
- Lock of the Week: Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans. The Falcons are coming off of a loss so I think they should have a fire lit under them against a struggling Titans squad.
- Upset of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs. KC has been really struggling, and many are calling for a switch at QB, but I just can't see them losing to a Steelers squad led by Landry Jones.

Thursday 15 October 2015

NFL Predictions: Week 6

That was a pretty crazy week. I got a lot of the teams right, most of them actually, but I missed some of the spreads by as close as 1.5 points. I still leave week 5 with a record above .500, and some momentum having not had a negative week since week 2.
Last Week: 7-6-1
Overall: 38-37-2

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (ATL -3.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns (Den -4) -> Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills (CIN -3.5) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -4) -> Minnesota Vikings
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC -1) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (DET -3) -> Detroit Lions
Washington Redskins @ New York Jets (NYJ -6) -> New York Jets
Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (ARI -3.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -2.5) -> Miami Dolphins
Carolina Panthers@ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -7) -> Carolina Panthers
San Diego Chargers @ Green Bay Packer (GB -10.5) -> Green Bay Packers
Baltimore Ravens @ San Fransisco 49ers (BAL -2.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers
New England Patriots @ Indianpolis Colts (NE -10) -> New England Patriots
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -4) -> Philadelphia Eagles

A couple notes....
- Am I crazy to think Seattle has just kind of lost it? They're still a good team, but they don't have that same X-factor or whatever it was that they had the last couple years. They never would have lost a seventeen point lead in the 4th quarter last year or two years ago. I think this game will be close, but I actually think Carolina has a good shot to beat Seattle at home.
- Lock of the Week: Denver @ Cleveland. This one just seems to be served on a silver platter. I get it, Josh McCown is coming off of a great week, but there is a difference between the injury plagued Ravens defense, and this Broncos defense. They are decimating way better quarterbacks than Josh McCown, and this game will only be close if the Broncos offense can't put points on the board.  Even still, only 4 points? I'll take it.
- Upset of the Week: Carolina @ Seattle is clearly the upset of the week, but because I already went over that, I'll talk about Miami @ Tennessee. The Dolphins have a new coach, and a new philosophy: Get Tough. They ran the Oklahoma drill in their first practice, and even though I doubt they are going to be able to turn the season around, the Titans are a beatable team even for the struggling Miami Dolphins. Off a bye week, I'm expecting to see some sort of life out of these Miami Dolphins.
- One more thing, why is Arizona and Pittsburgh so close? Are people really expecting Big Ben to play? Even if he does, have people been watching the 2015 Arizona Cardinals? This is a team that is running shop through everybody they face (barring the St. Louis Rams for some strange reason). This is another lock of the week, as it just seems like free money.

Thursday 8 October 2015

NFL Predictions: Week 5

Back to .500! After the hole I dug myself in the first week, I'm back with a vengeance and on a bit of a streak. Two solid upset picks against the points with Minnesota keeping it close against Denver and Detroit keeping it very close against Seattle. Hopefully I can keep it up this week.
Last Week: 8-6-1
Total Record: 31-31-1

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (HOU -4.5) -> Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -3) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans (BUF -2.5) -> Buffalo Bills
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -6.5) -> Baltimore Ravens
Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -7.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -9.5) -> Chicago Bears
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -4.5) -> Philadelphia Eagles
St. Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers (GB -9) -> Green bay Packers
Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -3) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions (ARI -2.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys (NE -9) -> New England Patriots
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (DEN -5) -> Denver Broncos
San Fransisco 49ers @ New York Giants (NYG -7) -> San Fransisco 49ers
Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Diego Chargers (SD -3) -> San Diego Chargers

A couple notes...
- Luck isn't playing tonight, makes the Houston game easier, but the Texans have been dreadful on offense this year. Tough one either way.
- Lock of the Week: Give me the Cincinnati Bengals. I have been so unimpressed with the Seahawks at the start of this season, and it took me awhile but I am firmly on this Bengals bandwagon. Cincinnati is a great team, and their strengths can take advantage of Seattle's weaknesses. They're a much better team then the Detroit Lions and they should handily win against a Seattle team that has struggled to achieve any success on offense this year. Honorable mention: Denver against Oakland.
- Upset of the Week: Jacksonville Jaguars. Once again I'm picking the Jaguars in an upset, and hopefully I can be right for the second time too. Tampa Bay is a young team, and Jameis will make his fair share of mistakes, so Jacksonville just needs to capitalize on that. Blake Bortles has been much better this season, and their team as a whole is playing more sound football. Should be a competitive game between two young teams but I think Jacksonville is just better.
- There are a lot of lopsided games this week, as the Packers, Patriots, Denver, Atlanta and Baltimore should all win handily.
- New Orleans @ Philadelphia should be a terrific game. I clearly am a glutton for punishment when it comes to the Eagles, but I still think they are a good team. Bradford played arguably his best game of the year last week, and it should be very competitive against Drew Brees (if he's healthy) and the Saints.

Thursday 1 October 2015

NFL Predictions: Week 4

Coming off of a terrific week last week, we finally have some momentum with us. We're already almost back to .500, and hopefully this week can push us ahead.
Last week: 12-4
Total Record: 23-25

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (BAL -3) -> Baltimore Ravens
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (in London) (NYJ -1.5) -> New York Jets
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -9) -> Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -6.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (CAR -3) -> Carolina Panthers
New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -5.5) -> Buffalo Bills
Oakland Raiders @ Chicago Bears (OAK -3) -> Oakland Raiders
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (PHI -3) -> Philadelphia Eagles
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -4) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns @ San Diego Chargers (SD -7.5) -> San Diego Chargers
Green Bay Packers @ San Fransisco 49ers (GB -8.5) -> Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos (DEN -6.5) -> Minnesota Vikings
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -7) -> Arizona Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints (NO -4) -> New Orleans Saints
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -10) -> Detroit Lions

A couple notes...
- It's sad that I'm taking the favourite in every game except for Minnesota vs. Denver and Seattle vs. Detroit, but I just can't see any other big possible upsets this week. One more game to keep an eye on is Houston and Atlanta. I wouldn't be surprised if the Texans pull out a victory even on the road.
- Baltimore. Baltimore. Baltimore. The Ravens on Thursday are going to be playing with a sense of urgency, they have to. They're going to have a hard enough time making the playoffs after an 0-3 start, but it's virtually impossible in their division to make it after an 0-4 start. Expect them to show up ready to play Thursday.
- Cleveland vs. San Diego, I want nothing to do with this line. I think San Diego is going to win, but by over a touchdown? I don't feel confident at all in that bet.
- Upset of the Week: Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos. Yes I think that Denver's undefeated streak is going to come to an end, at home, to Mike Zimmer's tough ass defense. He has that D playing hard right now, and Adrian Peterson finally looks like he's back. The wildcard is Teddy Bridgewater. This Denver D is scary good right now, like best in the league good, and Minnesota is going to need Teddy Bridgewater to be smart even with a ground and pound offense led by All Day.
- Lock of the Week: St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals. Arizona is playing like they want to destroy every team in their path, and St. Louis is looking like it will be another casualty this week. The Rams aren't bad, but Arizona at home is just too much, and they will suffocate Nick Foles with Tyrann Mathieu and their D playing the way they are playing.