Thursday 24 December 2015

NFL Predictions: Week 16

Last Week: 7-8-1
Overall: 105-112-7

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (OAK -5.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -3) ->  Washington Redskins
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -5.5) -> Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -3) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (CAR -7) -> Carolina Panthers
Dallas Cowboys @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -6) -> Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints (NO -3.5) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
San Fransisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions (DET -9.5) -> Detroit Lions
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -11) -> Kansas City Chiefs
Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -2.5) -> Indianapolis Colts
New England Patriots @ New York Jets (NE -3) -> New England Patriots
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -4.5) -> Houston Texans
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -4.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -13.5) -> St. Louis Rams
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (PIT -10) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos (DEN -3.5) -> Denver Broncos

A couple notes...
- Charles Woodson's last game in Oakland. He is the GOAT of defensive backs. That's my take, feel free to disagree, but he is a surefire Hall-of-Famer and a legend.
- The Washington Redskins will probably be your 2015 NFC East champs. That's weird. I don't know if I like that... But they have been the best team in the Tony Romo-less division, and deserve it more than the Eagles, Giants and 'Boys.
- Why do I keep picking Jacksonville? I love their offense and the spreads are usually pretty enticing. Oh well, two weeks left in the regular season and I am definitely going down with this ship. Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson, I'll take that all day especially if he's lined up against Brandon Browner at all. Also Brees may be out so that makes it even better.
- The Colts without Luck against the Dolphins. This has all the makings of a really ugly game. Ugh, I'll take the Colts I guess. With that being said I want no part of this game for betting purposes.
- Packers @ Cardinals, oh hell yeah! As a football fan I love it. This should be a terrific game. Every logical part of my mind says go Cardinals, but at the same time, it seems like a game where Aaron Rodgers will remind all of us why he is the best player in the world, and that nothing can stop him, not even mediocre (at best) weapons and going up against a great defense. Still picking the Cardinals, but I'm not that confident.
- Another great game between the Bengals and Broncos, but this one is less about two great QB's facing off against one another. This is about two deep rosters, and two great defenses. Nevertheless a terrific game ahead, and I'll take the team with the slightly better QB and more opportunistic defense.
- Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens. Pittsburgh just torched the Broncos defense, so I'm pretty sure they will find a way to score a few points against the injury riddled Ravens defense. Big Ben + Antonio Brown = Touchdowns. Simple math.
- Upset of the Week: St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks. The Rams probably won't win this game. But 13.5 points is a big spread, and Jeff Fisher coached teams weirdly play better against good teams. They have faired well against Seattle in recent years, and the Seahawks demolition on offense will start to die down sooner or later. on top of that, the Rams offense consists of Gurley, Gurley and more Gurley, which could keep Seattle's offense off the field and keep the score relatively close.

Saturday 19 December 2015

NFL Predictions: Week 15

Last week: 7-9
Overall: 98-104-6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ St. Louis Rams (STL -2.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys (NYJ -3) -> New York Jets
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -5.5) -> Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX -3) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -1) -> Houston Texans
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens (KC -7.5) -> Kansas City Chiefs
Buffalo Bills @ Washington Redskins (BUF -1) -> Buffalo Bills
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots (NE -14) -> New England Patriots
Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles (ARI -3.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (CAR -5) -> Carolina Panthers
Cleveland Browns @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -14.5) -> Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay Packers @ Oakland Raiders (GB -3) -> Oakland Raiders
Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers (SD -1.5) -> Miami Dolphins
Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -6.5) -> Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Fransisco 49ers (CIN -4.5) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints (NO -3.5) -> New Orleans Saints

A couple notes...
- Definitely an entertaining Thursday night game, but the St. Louis still doesn't have a QB. I'm going to have a hard time picking them to win especially when they go up against a team with a good young quarterback like Jameis Winston.
- I thought Tennessee would keep it close with the Jets last week. I was very, very wrong. And frankly, without Romo, Dallas isn't that much better off then the Titans. I'll take the Jets.
- What is going on Falcons? I'm sure they're asking themselves those same questions. Matt Ryan hasn't been good all season, even when they were winning, but now they are just spiralling. I like the Jags. I probably take them way too much, but they're a fun team, and I genuinely like their offense. Putting up 50 in one of Bortles weaker games can also help with my view on them too.
- The Patriots and Seattle both have brutal lines, but I still have no confidence in either the Titans or Browns to keep it at all close. Part of me wants the Browns to beat Seattle because the narrative with Manziel would be hilarious after that, but let's be realistic, these are two blowouts waiting to happen.
- Two amazing games this week; Green Bay @ Oakland, and Denver @ Pittsburgh. I think Oakland will take a close shootout of a game, and I think Denver will keep it close with Pittsburgh but end up losing. I can't wait to see the Steelers offense going up against the Broncos defense. That is just elite football right there.
- Another great game is Arizona @ Philadelphia. Are the Eagles a great team right now? No, but they're playing with a sense of urgency that was missing earlier this season. Arizona also looked more vulnerable then they have most of the year against Minnesota last Thursday night. Arizona will still give Bradford a tough time, which is why I'm taking the Cardinals.
- Lock of the Week: Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants. OBJ will be Norman's toughest test of the year, but apart from that battle, Carolina lines up terrifically with the rest of a mediocre Giants roster. The Panthers offense will be way to much for a lacklustre Giants defense to handle, and the Panthers will be one step closer to an undefeated season. The only thing that worries me is that they are the Giants and they know a thing or two about breaking up undefeated seasons.
- Upset of the Week: Green Bay Packers @ Oakland Raiders. Do I think Green Bay's season is looking up? Yeah. Was it right to give Mike McCarthy play-calling duties back? Definitely. Should they be considered a real Super Bowl contender? They're getting there. With all this being said, Oakland is a very talented team. Their offense is a huge threat to any team, and while I think this should be a really high scoring affair, and a very close game, Oakland playing at home tilts it a little in their favor for me.

Thursday 10 December 2015

NFL Predictions: Week 14

Damn... A few bad weeks have caught up to me, and I'm below .500 once again. Nothing comes easy in football, and apparently that holds true with predicting football too. Close predictions with the Giants and Miami would have left me .500 if I won them both, but that's how it goes. Hopefully I'm in for a better week. On the bright side though, holy hell what an amazing finish on Thursday Night Football last week!
Last Week: 6-10
Overall: 91-95-6

Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -10) -> Arizona Cardinals
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -2.5) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles (BUF -1) -> Buffalo Bills
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -8.5) -> Carolina Panthers
San Fransisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns (CLE -1.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers
Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears (CHI -3.5) -> Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions @ St. Louis Rams (DET -2.5) -> Detroit Lions
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -10) -> Kansas City Chiefs
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -4) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX -1) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets (NYJ -7) -> Tennessee Titans
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans (NE -3.5) -> New England Patriots
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (DEN -7.5) -> Denver Broncos
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (GB -7) -> Green Bay Packers
Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens (SEA -10) -> Seattle Seahawks
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins (NYG -1) -> New York Giants

A couple notes...
- Unless the spread is absolutely insane, I'm going with the Panthers the rest of the season. I think this team has a great shot at 16-0, and frankly I want to see it happen. Facing New Orleans on the road should be there toughest game for the rest of the season (I know, crazy soft schedule to end a year), and facing Atlanta 2 times, along with Tampa Bay and the Giants once is a winnable schedule for the best team in football now. Give me the Panthers.
- Lock of the Week: Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers. This is a really boring pick, but Carolina is a great football team and Atlanta right now is not a good football team. No need to complicate things, this is the state of these two teams.
- Upset of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals. I took a flyer on the Colts against the Steelers as they were playing really well going into last week. Then the Steelers decimated them in all facets of the game. Give me the Steelers as the underdogs as I don't think anybody can stop their offense right now. Big Ben is so hot right now... (queue Will Ferrell Zoolander meme)
- Speaking of that Pittsburgh/Indianapolis game last week, give me the Jags. As long as Luck is out, this is a flawed team. Sure they'll have their fair share of decent performances, but the inconsistency is to much for me to bet on them upsetting a very good Jags offense right now (their defense is another story).
- Non-picks related, the Bills/Eagles game is going to have huge implications on the playoff picture in the NFL. Should be a must watch this week, even if both teams have been very inconsistent this year.
- I finally got a Green Bay pick right, but I probably shouldn't have. That was an insane win, and looking at the big picture, it wasn't a great team performance considering how they started. Nevertheless, they should still be able to handily beat a Dallas team without Romo at home; I don't care that Dallas just beat Washington either.
- There's a reason I'm always so tentative choosing Washington to win and it's because they are so damn inconsistent. Any given week they can beat a good team or lose to a bad team, it's basically a coin flip.
- This Thursday night is a game between two good teams, but Minnesota is really hurting. Missing the best player on all three levels of their defense will cripple their ability to stop Arizona's potent offense. I do wish the spread was a little lower, but either way I'm taking Arizona.

Thursday 3 December 2015

NFL Predictions: Week 13

Back to .500. Started off the week well, and then missed on both 4 pm games, the Sunday Night Football game, and Monday night too. Football is a cruel, cruel mistress and I love it.
Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 85-85-6

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (GB -3) -> Green Bay Packers
San Fransisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears (CHI -7) -> Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (CIN -9.5) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -2.5) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -3) -> Houston Texans
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -4) -> Miami Dolphins
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (CAR -7) -> Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (Even) -> Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (ARI -6) -> Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -1.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
New York Jets @ New York Giants (NYJ -2) -> New York Giants
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (DEN -4) -> Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (KC -3) -> Kansas City Chiefs
Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots (NE -9.5) -> New England Patriots
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -7) -> Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (WAS -4.5) -> Washington Redskins

A couple notes...
- Why does Green Bay do this to me every single week... I have absolutely no confidence that they will win this Thursday, but I don't have any confidence that Detroit will either. The Packers have been "in" every game this year, except for the Broncos, until the last minute, and the loss against the Lions at home was a botched kick, the loss to the Bears was an absolute brutal game for their wide receivers, and Carolina was actually almost a pretty impressive comeback for that GB offense. I don't think they are as bad offensively as they have been so far this year, and as long as they have Aaron Rodgers then I will keep betting for them.
- Da Bears are lacking talent, but damn are they a well coached team. John Fox should be up for coach of the year because of how well he is getting his guys to play. I'll take the Bears at home against the 49ers even if the spread is a touchdown.
- Houston and Kansas City are two teams trending up, and I'm probably taking both of these teams until they lose.
- Lock of the Week: Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints. Are the Panthers going 16-0 this year? Probably not, but they will be 12-0 after this week. Cam is going to torch a weak Saints defense, and Carolina's D will pounce on a saints offense that has struggled in the past couple weeks.
- Upset of the Week: Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers. The Colts are playing inspired under Hasselback, and Roethlisberger may not even play. Even if he does end up playing, this isn't a walk in the park for the Steelers as the Colts have won 3 straight games against pretty solid teams.
- Seattle vs. Minnesota should be a great game. Normally I'll take the home team in a toss up, but Seattle, and more importantly Russell Wilson, has been playing really well lately, so give me the Seahawks.
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