Thursday 20 October 2016

NFL Predictions 2016: Week 7

Last Week: 7-6-2
Overall: 40-50-2

Two pushes is kinda crazy from last week. Football is staying weird though. The Packers are seemingly broken, Seattle had there magic working for them once again, although I stand by it, I think the Falcons are for real (offense anyways). On top of that Cincinnati is sucking, the Jets are done, Carolina seems done too, Dallas is going to have a QB controversy soon (and not a bad one either), Arizona might be back, and Buffalo might be the scariest team in the NFL not named the Patriots right now. What. The. Hell.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (GB -7.5) -> Green Bay Packers
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams (London) (NYG -3) -> New York Giants
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles (MIN -2.5) -> Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -6.5) -> New Orleans Saints
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions (DET -1.5) -> Washington Redskins
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -10) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (BUF -3) -> Buffalo Bills
Oakland Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX -1) -> Oakland Raiders
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -2.5) -> Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets (NYJ -1) -> Baltimore Ravens
San Diego Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -6.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Fransisco 49ers (TB -2) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers (NE -7) -> New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -2) -> Arizona Cardinals
Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos (DEN -7.5) -> Denver Broncos

A couple notes...
- Lock of the Week: I want to start off with this because there are a couple games that I would consider locks this week. I expect New England and Denver to both not only cover, but blow the other teams out of the water. On paper they both seem like very, very easy multi-score wins for these respective teams. New England's one is easy, Pittsburgh is missing Big Ben, and Landry Freaking Jones is their starter. They have a weak defense and Gronk/Brady is just hitting its stride. Denver on the other hand is struggling offensively, but I genuinely expect their defense to outscore Houston's offense. Brock has been awful to start the year, almost as bad as Fitzpatrick, and he is going up against not only one of the best defenses in the league, but also a defense that knows his tendencies. This should be another UGLY Monday Night Football game.
- Upset of the Week: I was surprised at this line too. I don't know how the Jets are favoured. I think Geno will be better than what Fitz has done, but still, that's just saying I don't expect him to throw 6 interceptions. The Ravens are solid, not great, but solid. They are well coached though, and that's more than enough to stomp the Jets in Geno's first start of the year.
- The Packers have looked awful, and are routed by injury, but they are facing the Bears on a  Thursday. The only near certainty is this game is going to be really ugly. They should win, but I don't feel good about the cover.
- Why are Minnesota's lines so damn close? They are better than Philly, and they should win. In Philly. Handily. Mike Zimmer and that defense is a lot to handle for any QB, let alone a rookie (although he has played much, much better than I expected). I'm riding the Vikings hot streak until I see something in them that tells me I shouldn't (I doubt it will be soon).
- The Saints and Chargers are two teams that just seem to stick around in every game. I wanted to pick the Chargers to cover the spread, but I don't know if they have a stout enough defense to contain Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. I wouldn't be surprised if it's close, but Atlanta is going to come out hot after last week.
- Two of my favourite young teams to watch are facing off against each other this week. Indianapolis and Tennessee... I'm kidding, the Raiders and Jags play, and even though both of these teams have been shaky at times this year, I love watching guys like Amari Cooper, Derek Carr, Khalil Mack, Jalen Ramsey, Allen Robinson and Yannick Ngakoue (yes I did google his name to make sure I spelled it correctly). I think Oakland is further along in its development as a team, but the game should be entertaining at the very least. Although it could be a train wreck too, both teams have had their goose eggs this year.
- I'm staying away from the Colts and Titans. Usually when I think it's close, the coaching sways me, but the Chuck Pagano/Mike Mularkey combo just isn't doing it for me. I like betting on the Colts because I love Luck, but time and time again I just see how terrible the rest of his team is (exempt from this is T.Y. Hilton, he's a badass). The Titans have shown flashes recently, and they are the more talented roster, minus QB, but again, Mularkey. I'll just pick them because they're the home team. I don't like it though.
- BOLD PREDICTION: Just a thought, I think the Rams are losing this one, and I think Goff is going to be their week 9 starter. They have a bye in week 8, and it would be the perfect time to make the change. I recognize Keenum had the best game of his career last week against Detroit, but Detroit's defense has been injury riddled and just awful, and Keenum threw a game clinching interception on the last drive to halt any attempt at a comeback. I don't know how likely this is, it is Jeff Fisher we're talking about, but if they have any intention of Goff starting this year it has to be done after this game. We'll see though, it's a very bold prediction and hinges on many factors, but if I was Los Angeles and Goff has shown me enough to assume he'd be okay, then I'm going Goff.

Thursday 13 October 2016

NFL Predictions 2016: Week 6

Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 33-44

Decent week with 2 spreads missed by half a point, so I'll take it. To paraphrase Belichick, on to week 6.

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (DEN -3) -> Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots (NE -9) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants (NYG -3) -> New York Giants
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (CAR -3) -> New Orleans Saints
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins (PIT -7.5) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears (CHI -2.5) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
San Fransisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -9) -> Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions (DET -3) -> Detroit Lions
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -7) -> Tennessee Titans
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (PHI -2.5) -> Washington Redskins
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (KC -1.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -6) -> Atlanta Falcons
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (GB -4) -> Green Bay Packers
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (HOU -3) -> Houston Texans
New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -8) -> Arizona Cardinals

A couple notes...
- I hate betting on San Diego games because of Phillip Rivers. He's the only reason they are competitive (although Joey Bosa is awesome) and it could be close on Thursday. Denver is still the way better team though, and Siemian is back too.
- Pats should win, but 9 points is a ton versus a talented Bengals squad.
- Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins. It seems too easy for me to go lock of the week as any team facing the Browns, so I'll go the Steelers. Their offense has seemed unstoppable since Le'Veon Bell has come back, and Miami does not have the cornerback talent to even hinder Antonio Brown. Give me Pittsburgh all day long.
- Upset of the Week: Kansas City @ Oakland Raiders. Oakland at home against a team that has really struggled to get any pressure on opposing QB's. Should be a close game, but Oakland has too much talent on offense. Derek Carr would need to have a really poor game for Oakland to lose.
- Seattle vs. Atlanta is going to be an awesome game. I'm buying into Atlanta after last week, Matt Ryan has been great and they pulled out a massive win against Denver. Seattle has come on strong, but still need to work on their consistency on offense. Although Jimmy Graham looking like Jimmy Graham is a huge help.
- Another huge game is Dallas @ Green Bay. Dom Capers has done wonders against rookie QB's, but Dak is on another level right now. Dallas worked over Cincinnati last week, but Green Bay is still the better team, even with their offensive struggles. Also, underrated storyline is Green Bay's stout run defense vs. Ezekiel Elliott. Should be a lot of fun, but Green Bay at home is tough to bet against.

Thursday 6 October 2016

NFL Predictions 2016: Week 5

Last Week: 7-8
Overall: 25-38

Atlanta is good, Denver is great, Arizona might be screwed, Carolina is in trouble, Buffalo isn't out of it, Le'Veon Bell makes a huge difference, LA is better than expected but still not great, New Orleans and San Diego are just crazy and Tom Brady is now back. Week 4 was ridiculous just like every other week so far, but injuries are starting to pile up and teams are soon going to reach do or die mode.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Fransisco 49ers (ARI -3.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers
Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -7) -> Minnesota Vikings
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -3.5) -> Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns (NE -10.5) -> New England Patriots
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -7) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -4) -> Washington Redskins
Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions (PHI -3.5) -> Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Bears @ Indianpolis Colts (IND -4.5) -> Indianapolis Colts
Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos (DEN -5.5) -> Denver Broncos
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams (LA -2.5) -> Buffalo Bills
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (OAK -3.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys (CIN -1) -> Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers (GB -7.5) -> Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -7) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A couple notes...
- Lock of the Week: San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders. With Verrett out, and pretty much everybody else on San Diego but Phillip Rivers out too, Oakland has a decent chance to blow this game out. Rivers is incredible, and he's the only reason it could be close, but Oakland's defense is starting to perform better, and their offense should have another stellar week.
- Upset of the Week: Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is at home, and their offense is starting to roll. Dak has been great and Elliott leads the league in rushing. Cincinnati is a great team, but Dallas' O-line should be able to give Dak just enough time against a great interior rush to pull out a win here.
- I don't know how to predict Arizona and Carolina. With Carson Palmer out and Cam Newton most likely out too, these are two good teams that have performed poorly all year, but they are going up against two weaker teams as well. Derek Anderson can be solid so I could see Carolina winning, but man Drew Stanton is just not good. Even against San Fran and with a much more talented roster, Stanton could just throw the game away and I wouldn't be surprised.
- Denver vs Atlanta should be incredible. I think Matt Ryan's hot start is stymied a bit with this Denver D. Brandon Marshall, Todd Davis, Sylvester Williams and T.J. Ward are going to be really important to slow down Devonta Freeman, so they can force Matt Ryan to throw and try and get him to make mistakes.
- I could see Odell go for 200+ yards against Green Bay, but I still can't see New York stopping Green Bay's offense. Eli should be under pressure a lot of the game. Nick Perry and if Clay Matthews is back should both absolutely eat up NY's OT's. They should chip with TE's and RB's a lot to give OBJ, Cruz and Sheppard more time.
- I think this is a big game for Philly. Detroit hasn't been great this year, but they are on the road and I want to see what their offense can do after a bye week. Their defense should DESTROY Detroit's offense though. Jim Schwartz return game narrative.

Thursday 29 September 2016

NFL Predictions 2016: Week 4

Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 18-30

I'm improving? Every week I think I'm getting a better grasp on who teams really are. There are a group of roughly 7 teams who are the clear teams to beat, with no single team standing out a ton yet (other than the Patriots but I'm still waiting for Tom to return). Then there is a group of 15ish teams that are inconsistent to say the least. I've fallen trap to a lot of teams here, and they bring it one week and get flat out outplayed the next (*cough* Washington, Buffalo Tampa Bay, Oakland *cough*). Finally there are the teams that just suck. At least right now. Some are talented teams playing like crap, others are horribly coached, and others are weak rosters playing their asses off. So, lets see who proves me wrong this week.

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -7.5) -> Miami Dolphins
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (London game) (IND -2.5) -> Indianapolis Colts
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Redskins (WAS -8) -> Washington Redskins
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (NE -6) -> New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Jets (SEA -2.5) -> New York Jets
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (CAR -3) -> Carolina Panthers
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (DET -3) -> Detroit Lions
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (HOU -4.5) -> Houston Texans
Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -3.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DEN -3) -> Denver Broncos
Dallas Cowboys @ San Fransisco 49ers (DAL -2.5) -> Dallas Cowboys
New Orleans Saints @ San Diego Chargers (SD -4) -> New Orleans Saints
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -8) -> Arizona Cardinals
Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -5) -> Kansas City Chiefs
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -5) -> Minnesota Vikings

A couple notes...
- The Bengals in primetime or Miami on the road... Damn. This is not a good way to start the week. I like the way Gase is coaching this team though, and I mean, it's been 5+ years and I just still do not believe in Andy Dalton. Oh well. Cinci is the more talented team, but 7.5 is a big spread on a short week where anything can happen. AJ Green should have a monster game though. Like enormous.
- It seems like whenever there is football in London, a coach gets fired. To be honest I'm not even a hundred percent sure a coach has gotten fired after the London game, but man oh man I have a bad feeling this week for Gus Bradley. I love the Jags roster, I've bet on them each of the last two weeks, but this team has not performed close to offseason expectations. If Andrew Luck has a decent game, it could be the end of the Gus Bradley era in Jacksonville.
- I AM NOT BETTING AGAINST BELICHICK THIS WEEK. My instincts even tell me to go for Buffalo. They brought a storm last week vs. Arizona, and Rex seems to play BB hard, and the Pats might be starting Julian Fucking Edelman at QB, but damn it's Bill Belichick. I can't do it anymore. He's too good.
- I realize I'm going with a ton of road teams this week, and I'm prepared for the downfall of this, but the games just fell that way. I'm not betting for Chicago, San Fran or Tampa Bay after the last couple weeks, especially considering who they are all going up against. I also expect big bounce back weeks from Carolina and Arizona.
- Minnesota might be the best team in the NFL. I cannot believe I'm writing this sentence after they lost Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson, but it's true. I've always been a big believer in this defense. The depth at edge and the creative ways Mike Zimmer brings pressure on opposing QB's, and then they have an incredible group of linebackers and a great secondary headed by the best safety in the league (you heard me) Harrison Smith. This team is basically the Denver Broncos but with Sam BRadford instead of Trevor Siemian. I think at the top of the NFL, it is the Pats, Vikings, Green Bay (permitted Aaron Rodgers is at least solid by his standards), Denver and Seattle (permitted Wilson can stay healthy and the offense can be okay). The rest of the teams I have serious questions about. Although Carolina is close to this group, and if Carson Palmer bounces back then Arizona is right there too.

Thursday 22 September 2016

NFL Predictions 2016: Week 3

Last Week: 6-10
Overall: 11-21

Well I'm bad. The turning point that I've called before the season though is after week 3. That's when you usually find out what teams true identities really are, what coaches bring to the table, and the spreads aren't as ridiculous. The worst part of all of this is I'm missing on the spreads by a point or on unlucky plays consistently. Baltimore and Cleveland, I just missed, the Pats and Dolphins they couldn't complete the comeback and I missed by half a point, Carolina scored 17 points on San Fran in the last 4 minutes, and Denver got the sack/fumble to complete the spread. My luck has to turn soon... hopefully...

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (EVEN) -> Houston Texans
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -3) -> Denver Broncos
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -1.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills (ARI -4) -> Arizona Cardinals
Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars (BAL -1) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -9.5) -> Miami Dolphins
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (NYG -4.5) -> New York Giants
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (GB -7.5) -> Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -7) -> Minnesota Vikings
San Fransisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -9.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (TB -5.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles (PIT -3.5) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -3) -> Kansas City Chiefs
San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -3) -> Indianapolis Colts
Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys (DAL -7) -> Dallas Cowboys
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (NO -3) -> New Orleans Saints

A couple notes...
- If Belichick wins with Brissett, I promise you for the rest of the season I will not bet against him. The spread could be Pats -10000 and I'm going Pats. Houston is a really, really talented team, and I think they should win this short week game against a rookie QB. I'm sure Belichick will set Brissett up nicely with a lot of short, high percentile throws, but the Texans are too good to beat that way.
- I'm a glutton for punishment, I'm going Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and Oakland after last week. I think all three of these teams are talented, they just need to get back on track and I think they all have good match-ups. It will come down to QB play, and all three young quarterbacks could torch their opposing defenses, or at least not throw their respective games away.
- I can't see Seattle, Carolina, and Green Bay putting up enough points to beat their spreads, but I think all three teams should win.
- Lock of the Week: Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills. The Bills fired their offensive coordinator, yet their defense has been awful. Hmmm. I will take Arizona all day long. Their defense should beat up on the Bills offense, and Carson Palmer should have absolutely no problem moving the chains and putting up points. It would take a tragic Palmer performance to make this game even close.
- Upset of the Week: Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans. Tennessee came up with a big win last week against Detroit (although the Ebron push off call was a shitty call), but Oakland has way, way more talent. Their offense is moving the ball well, and I actually think their defense should bounce back in a sense this week. If the Titans had a better coach, I think they could be legitimately good. Yet here we are, with Mularky running a trash offense for Mariota. Play up to Mariota's strengths, run short crossers, roll him out, and get Derrick Henry the damn ball.
- Washington intrigues me this week. This is 100% a make or break week for Washington, and I truly believe if they lose in week 3, their season is over. The main reason I'm not going with them this week is Kirk. He has been so, so bad these first two weeks, I can't see how they win if he performs like he has been.

Thursday 15 September 2016

NFL Power Rankings 2016: Week 2

Well... Week 1 was interesting. Quite a few teams proved me wrong, and definitely deserve a raise in my rankings. Usually around week 4 you start to see a teams true colours, so as of now I'm going to try not to completely overreact to certain showings by teams. The top 6 are all really close for me, and I think all of them have a legitimate case for number 1. With all that being said, let's get to it!

1) Green Bay Packers
2) New England Patriots
3) Pittsburgh Steelers
4) Carolina Panthers
5) Denver Broncos
6) Seattle Seahawks
7) Houston Texans
8) Arizona Cardinals
9) Minnesota Vikings
10) Cincinnati Bengals
11) Kansas City Chiefs
12) Oakland Raiders
13) New Orleans Saints
14) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
15) Detroit Lions
16) Indianapolis Colts
17) New York Jets
18) Jacksonville Jaguars
19) New York Giants
20) Miami Dolphins
21) Baltimore Ravens
22) Dallas Cowboys
23) Atlanta Falcons
24) Chicago Bears
25) Buffalo Bills
26) Washington Redskins
27) San Diego Chargers
28) Philadelphia Eagles
29) San Fransisco 49ers
30) Los Angeles Rams
31) Tennessee Titans
32) Cleveland Browns

NFL Predictions 2016: Week 2

Week 1: 5-11
Overall: 5-11

Week 1 is a shit show. I mean I'm just bad at predicting, but week 1 is definitely a shit show too. It was chaos across the board, although it gave us some insight to a lot of teams that had questions about them. There were so many close games this week too, and spreads were missed or made by a point or two. With that being said, on to the picks for week 2!

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (NYJ -1) -> New York Jets
Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions (DET -5.5) -> Detroit Lions
Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (HOU -2.5) -> Houston Texans
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (NE -6.5) -> Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (BAL -6.5) -> Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -3.5) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (WAS -3) -> Washington Redskins
New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants (NYG -4.5) -> New Orleans Saints
San Fransisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -13.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -6.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams (SEA -6.5) -> Los Angeles Rams
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (DEN -6) -> Indianapolis Colts
Atlanta Falcons @ Oakland Raiders (OAK -4.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers (SD -3) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (GB -2) -> Minnesota Vikings
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears (CHI -3) -> Chicago Bears

A couple notes...
- Lock of the Week: Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns. I'm still not completely sold on the Ravens, although they proved me wrong in the first week, but they should handily beat the Browns even in Cleveland. McCown is now the guy in Cleveland, but they're one hit away from Cody Kessler or Kevin Hogan. Let that sink in for a second. McCown isn't the guy you want at QB to begin with, but they are really close to not winning a game this season. Baltimore shut down Tyrod Taylor in week 1, and I don't see them having any trouble with shutting down McCown. Cleveland's D should be no problem for Flacco and that offense too.
- Upset of the Week: There are so many to choose from this week. I'm going to go with the LA Rams over the Seahawks though. Now that seems crazy considering how LA played Monday night (if you didn't watch that game, lucky you). With that being said, I'm also taking into consideration how Seattle played in Week 1, and it was rough. For a team that is supposed to shut down teams at home, they were one Kenny Stills drop away from losing handily to the Miami Dolphins. Russell Wilson hurt his ankle that game too, and there's a chance he may not be 100%. Historically, Jeff Fisher and his squad brings their A game when they play the Seahawks, and I actually think they will outright beat them on Sunday.
- Some other tempting upsets were Miami over New England (although I still hate betting against Belichick), New Orleans over the Giants, San Fran against the spread vs. Carolina, Tampa Bay over Arizona, Indianapolis over Denver, Jacksonville over San Diego, and Minnesota over Green Bay (although I hate betting against Aaron Rodgers almost as much as I hate betting against Belichick). These games all feel like they're going to be way too close to have some of the spreads they do.
- I understand Denver's defense is incredible, but Andrew Luck is the QB for the Colts and Trevor Siemian is the QB for the Broncos.
- I don't trust New Orleans' defense, but their offense is so good with Brees and the Giants offense wasn't as explosive as I expected against a weaker Cowboys defense. I expect Brees to keep it to at least a field goal or potentially be able to blow out NY.
- Miami really impressed me week 1. I truly believe that Adam Gase is 100% the right coach for them and I thought Ryan Tannehill was also way better than his numbers indicated. As I've said all throughout the off-season, Seattle's offensive line is very weak, and Miami was easily able to get to Wilson on a consistent basis, but their defense still looked very good too. New England is an issue because of Belichick, and he is just way too smart even with Garappolo starting and Gronk most likely out, but I think it will be a very close game, enough to give Miami the edge under the spread.
- Tampa Bay looked fantastic week 1. They weren't perfect, but Jameis and the offense looked great and you clearly saw the playmakers they have on defense in Kwon Alexander, Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David and VHIII. I was disappointed in Arizona, and thought their game plan was too passive, but they are still a very talented team. I think Arizona will squeak out a victory, but it will be close.
- I think Jacksonville will wreck shop against San Diego. The Jags are a very good team, and were very close to beating Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in week 1. They played a very smart game too, and this defense will continue to get better along with the offense. The biggest week 1 disappointment was not only San Diego blowing such a huge lead against KC, but also Keenan Allen's injury. It was a tale of two different teams, and without Keenan Allen, San Diego seems doomed for another long season. I hope they prove me wrong because I like Phillip Rivers, but man oh man another unlucky, awful injury for the incredibly talented Allen. Rivers will have to abuse Jacksonville's linebackers in the short passing game with Danny Woodhead, but if the Jags play Myles Jack (lets hope!) then they could help minimize that issue, and apart from that the Jags win across the board. Although I can't wait to see Allen Robinson vs. Jason Verrett. Should be an awesome match-up!
- Minnesota's defense is ridiculous. I think it's the best defense in the league (sorry Denver and Seattle) and I don't think that's even that hot of a take. They have star talent and depth at every level and even with a shaky at best offense, they will compete this year. This is Bradford's first start of the year (or should be at least) and he is miles ahead of Shaun Hill in terms of talent. This should be an incredibly close game and frankly I'm torn. Green Bay should be better than they were in week 1 as Rodgers and Jordy get another week together, but I'll take the home team as the tiebreaker.
- On Thursday we're gonna see two very good defenses go off, in the Jets and Bills. Simply put, the Jets looked better in week 1, and I think they are the more talented team. I think for the Bills to win, Tyrod will have to play exceptionally, which isn't out of the question, but I still lean New York's way.
- Detroit really impressed me week 1. Andrew Luck was incredible, yet they kept on bouncing back and Stafford and that offense were outstanding. I think they should easily beat a Titans team that... er... let me just say struggled in week 1.
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans should be a fantastic game, but I'm going with Houston. ironically without Justin Houston, KC's defense didn't look nearly as potent as it has in recent years, and Houston looked good on all levels against a solid Chicago team.
- Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers should be another great game. I think it should come down to the wire, but in the end I don't see how Cincinnati is going to stop Antonio Brown.
- Washington should beat Dallas. Should. Dak had a solid showing vs. the Giants, but he really isn't being asked to do much. Washington's defense was torched by a good Pittsburgh offense, but they are still very talented and should be able to handle Dak. Washington's offense should also in theory put the throttle to Dallas' defense. I'll give Washington the benefit of the doubt in week 1, but if they don't pull this out though, then I'm going to be worried about them as a team.
- So Atlanta was better in week 1 then I thought they would be, but my god they need a pass rush. Badly. Oakland should be able to punish them for their lack of push at the line, and I expect Oakland to keep momentum going after an impressive, ballsy, week 1 win.
- Give me John Fox's Bears vs. a rookie QB. The Eagles looked way better than I thought they would in week 1, and their defense is good, but Chicago is a better team than people think. Jay Cutler is solid, and Alshon and Kevin White are too good to keep quiet all game.

Thursday 8 September 2016

NFL Power Rankings 2016: Week 1

Don't @ me. I might get destroyed on a few of these after week 1, but that's part of the fun. Baltimore, Atlanta and Miami could surprise, but frankly I think those teams are trying to fight going into rebuild mode when that's what they should do. The AFC past New England is rough, and I mean rough. Not to say by the end of the year there won't be a true competitor other than NE, but right now, I have no idea. Most analysts tend to love Pittsburgh, but I'm torn. Big Ben is great, as is Antonio Brown, but I still have questions about their defense, mainly their secondary and how they'll get pressure off the edge. The Packers at the top? Well sure they lost Sitton, but who's ever said they won't win a Super Bowl because of their left guard? Two years ago the Packers had the best offense in the NFL. They are returning every starter from that offense other than Sitton (and Kuhn :'(...), and they should get bounce back years from Lacy, Cobb, Adams etc. Their defense is getting to a point where it's underrated too. It was close between Green Bay and Seattle, but Seattle's offensive line (or lack there of) pushed it over the edge for me. Dallas and Minnesota should shoot up these rankings to when Romo is back and when I see Sam Bradford has learned the playbook. Their too talented to be as low as they are.

1) Green Bay Packers
2) Seattle Seahawks
3) New England Patriots
4) Arizona Cardinals
5) Carolina Panthers
6) Pittsburgh Steelers
7) Kansas City Chiefs
8) Denver Broncos
9) Cincinnati Bengals
10) Dallas Cowboys
11) Houston Texans
12) New York Giants
13) Oakland Raiders
14) New York Jets
15) Indianapolis Colts
16) Minnesota Vikings
17) Buffalo Bills
18) Washington Redskins
19) New Orleans Saints
20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
21) Chicago Bears
22) Jacksonville Jaguars
23) Detroit Lions
24) Miami Dolphins
25) Atlanta Falcons
26) Tennessee Titans
27) Baltimore Ravens
28) Philadelphia Eagles
29) Los Angeles Rams
30) San Diego Chargers
31) Cleveland Browns
32) San Fransisco 49ers

Wednesday 7 September 2016

NFL Predictions 2016: Week 1

Back at it again! Way too long of an offseason, but finally football is back. The first week is usually a shit show and it's anybody's guess as to what happens, so I guess we'll find out soon!

Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos (CAR -5.5) -> Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -3) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans (MIN -2) -> Tennessee Titans
Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -4) -> Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (CIN -2.5) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints (NO -1) -> New Orleans Saints
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -7) -> Kansas City Chiefs
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -3) -> Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans (HOU -6.5) -> Houston Texans
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (GB -5.5) -> Green Bay Packers
Miami Dolphins @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -10.5) -> Seattle Seahawks
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (EVEN) -> New York Giants
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -3.5) -> Indianapolis Colts
New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -6) -> Arizona Cardinals
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins (PIT -3) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
Los Angeles Rams @ San Fransisco 49ers (LA -2.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers

A couple notes...
- The Super Bowl rematch on Thursday loses a bit of excitement as Siemian is starting for the Broncos. He actually looked solid in the preseason, and he may surprise people, but against an incredibly stout Panthers defense, I can't see Denver coming out with the win.
- Matt Ryan's arm looked shot in the preseason. That's the main reason I'm going Tampa here, until I see Ryan hasn't lost a step, or at least looks adequate, I'm not gonna go with Atlanta.
- Speaking of QB's I need to see first, Minnesota has one hell of a team but man oh man week 1, it's either Shaun Hill, or Sam Bradford who may not know enough of the playbook to actually be able to play. Minnesota with Bridgewater was a Super Bowl contender, and Bradford may still be good enough to make them threats, but this early in the season, I'm gonna go with the team with a better QB. Also I'm a fan of the direction Tennessee is going in and what they showed this preseason with Murray and Henry.
- Cleveland and Philadelphia, eh, it's kind of a toss-up. Eagles are at home so my instinct wants to lean there, but I'm going to fall trap to the excitement of Cleveland's new offense. Also Wentz first game, and I was in the camp that he wasn't ready to start out of the gate, but once again I'm ready to be proven wrong.
- Bengals vs Jets should be a great game. Two tough defenses going at it, and two teams that should be fighting for playoff spots near the end of the year. Personally I'm not a huge fan of Andy Dalton, but he's still the better QB and that's why I'm going with the Bengals.
- Another exciting game between Oakland and New Orleans. Two high-powered offenses face off, and this is a tough one. I love the moves Oakland has done this offseason, and I think they are on the right track, and New Orleans has really struggled to be a consistent force as they once were, but New Orleans is also a team that has Drew Brees, and was once an absolute force at home. It's close, but home field advantage pushes it New Orleans way for me.
- KC should blow out San Diego. I love me some Phillip Rivers/Keenan Allen combo, but KC's defense is strong, and their offense should be consistent too.
- I believe in Tyrod Taylor being Buffalo's franchise QB, and frankly I think he's the better quarterback in this game against his former team the Ravens too. Baltimore's roster is old and has a lot of guys coming back from injury, so I don't know what to expect this season from them. Give me Buffalo here.
- The Texans are... Well... They are good. At least they should be if Brock Lobster is adequate. A stout defense and a run game with Nuk too is a good sign for Texans fans. I think Chicago is on the upswing too, and they made a lot of underrated signings like Freeman, Hicks and Trevathan, but I have absolutely no idea how Chicago is going to attempt to stop DeAndre Hopkins and Houston is at home too.
- I'm completely on board with the new look Jags, yet this is a team that has struggled mightily in September, losing by an average of 17.3 points over the past 3 years. Their offense is strong, Bortles, Robinson and Hurns are a terrific combo but they are going up against one of the most complete teams this year, and the best QB in the league. I wouldn't be shocked if the Jags take this game, but everything would have to go right, and the questions about their pass rush don't help their cause against an offense that thrives with time. Oh, Jordy's back too.
- Seattle's offensive line is awful. They also lost Marshawn Lynch. They should destroy the Dolphins. I'm not too high on Seattle this year, but their defense is too good to believe that Miami can take them IN Seattle.
- If Romo was healthy I'm taking Dallas all day long, but Dak's a go for week 1, and it makes things way more interesting. I loved what I saw from Prescott in the preseason, but he's still a rookie QB in his first regular season game ever. When he played with Dez in the preseason he went there often, and I expect to see a lot of Elliott too, but the Giants offense is a good one. OBJ, Shepard and Cruz (if healthy) should be able to handle the Cowboys D with ease.
- The Colts and Lions are both very weird teams. They both have good talent across the board, but have clear holes too. I think the Colts and their offense are in for a good bounce back year, so I'll take them for week 1 at least.
- If Brady was playing I'd take the Patriots but he's not so I'm taking the Cardinals. Simple as that. Although I want to see Carson Palmer back at his best because this preseason and last years postseason was rough.
- Anotnio Brown vs. Josh Norman week 1, yes please. I think Brown is gonna get his fair share of wins against Norman, and I like Pittsburgh as a whole better than Washington even on the road.
- First game the LA Rams are playing in a long time, and I'm taking the 49ers against the spread? I know, I suck. Oh well, it's Case Keenum vs. Blaine Gabbert, this is probably the worst game of the week. Give me the home team.

Wednesday 27 April 2016

Final NFL Mock Draft: All Seven Rounds

This took a while. The damn trades at the top made me start over twice too, but nevertheless, it is here. It's obviously going to all be spot on, so at least I have that going for me. In all seriousness, from the backend of round 1 to mid round 3 there are so many possibilities. So many players have certain traits that jump off the board and make you want to pound the table for them in round 1, yet there are also serious flaws in them too. No prospect is perfect, but the overall parity from 20-70 this year shocked me. It was in a good way though, as there are going to be a lot of day 2 starters in this draft. A ton. Trust me. Enjoy!

Round 1

1) Los Angeles Rams (From Tennessee Titans) - Jared Goff, QB, Cal
Goff is good. Like, really good. So just ignore anybody who implies that his hand size and "skinny" build make him a lesser QB. He has terrific accuracy, a strong arm, and plays with good anticipation too. The Rams are picking a QB with the top pick, and it might be Wentz, but Goff can play immediately and play well immediately too. Old school analysts like to say a player like Goff has never had success, but that's just an excuse. When you watch this kids game, he has so many great traits and can become a terrific NFL QB.

2) Philadelphia Eagles (From Cleveland) - Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
Wow. I've had to change this mock draft two times thanks to trades from Tennessee and Cleveland now. Give Philly credit though, they're going up and getting their guy. Wentz has a big arm, athleticism, and according to coaches he has a really high football IQ.

3) San Diego Chargers - Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
This isn't a sexy pick, but Tunsil is a rock. His pro day cemented his status as one of the few elite talents in this draft, and San Diego should be thrilled he falls to them. Phillip Rivers was forced to make magic out of nothing last season, so giving him an actual franchise LT is enormous.

4) Dallas Cowboys - Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida State
The Cowboys should be thanking their lucky stars that arguably the best player in the draft falls to them at 4. Rod Marinelli gets one of the most versatile players in this entire draft, and it just so happens to fill a huge need too. I think Ramsey should play safety, but he can also play nickel corner when they need him too, and frankly they should just let him make plays. He immediately becomes one of the best players on an improving Dallas defense.

5) Jacksonville Jaguars - Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
One of the best players in the draft (with Ramsey and Tunsil IMO), the Jaguars should be thrilled with this pick. Jack is a swiss army knife and he is a playmaker. There are concerns about his knee which could lead to a draft day slide, but Jack is still incredibly talented and can make plays for a defense that lacked an identity last season. Also pairing Jack with Telvin Smith is just way to tempting.

6) Baltimore Ravens - DeForest Buckner, DT, Oregon
Buckner, Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan on the defensive line, yikes. I'm saying yikes for the teams that play them just in case that wasn't clear. Ozzie Newsome is one of the best GM's in the league, and he knows how much of an impact a strong defensive front can have. Buckner is the best value in this position, and he would be an immediate 3-down contributor. This is a classic Ozzie pick, and Buckner fits terrifically with the Ravens scheme too.

7) San Fransisco 49ers - Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
Baalke should get Chip Kelly his guy, and even though I think Goff would have been a better fit, Lynch is terrific in his own right. He's enormous and can just sling it. He needs to be groomed for sure, but the tools for success are there. 

8) Cleveland Browns (From Cleveland) - Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
I know, this draft has been boring at the top so far. I'm not trying to be bold, I'm just trying to predict the best possible move for each team. Elliott is an immediate 3-down back, and as Urban Meyer said, "[Elliott] is the best player I've ever coached without the ball in his hand." That is really high praise considering everybody already knows how good he is WITH the ball in his hand. Elliott is the best talent left in the draft, and honestly it isn't even that close.

9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Joey Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
Bosa falling to 9 is incredible value for a team that needs an edge rusher. Gerald McCoy is a stud, but getting him help in Bosa on the edge should make this D take a huge step forward. Bosa isn't perfect, but he can set the edge, be a disruptor in the run game, and if he works on his technique he could still end up being a perennial 10+ sack a year guy. There's a lot to like about Bosa, and this fills a huge need for Tampa Bay.

10) New York Giants - Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
Stanley is another player who seems to be dropping on a lot of boards, and I'm not sure why. He's a stud in pass protection, and has a very high ceiling as a franchise left tackle. Ereck Flowers was not the answer as a left tackle last season (maybe he'll be better as a right tackle) and Stanley can be. A wide receiver would be very tempting here, but they could get way better value in the second round.

11) Chicago Bears - Shaq Lawson, EDGE, Clemson
Chicago grabs an amazing football player, and fills a huge need too. They need pass rush, Lamarr Houston and Pernell McPhee aren't enough, but damn with Lawson that group can be feared. Analysts seem to be split on Lawson, all I know is he's young, he can f****** play, and I would want him on my football team. Don't overthink it, he's a stud.

12) New Orleans Saints - Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville
The Saints are a tough pick. They need talent, just in general, and Rankins has that in spades. Playing beside a big NT like John Jenkins, Rankins can do what he does best, disrupt. Rankins has shown the ability to throw blockers off him, and he can be an enforcer on this defense from the beginning. New Orleans needs to get stronger upfront, and Rankins brings that to the table.

13) Miami Dolphins (From Philadelphia) - Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
I know, I know, Miami needs another cornerback. They also need an impact defender, and Ragland gives them a 3-down Mike for their defense. Playing behind Suh would free him up to make plays, and that's what he does best. His instincts are off the charts, and even though he's not a special athlete, he's an NFL athlete. The knock on him is he's a 2-down linebacker, but that's just not true. Just because he's not Kuechly in coverage, doesn't mean he can't hold his own, and I expect him to be a leader on this defense, and have a big immediate impact. Miami should also genuinely consider Jaylon Smith if it turns out his knee isn't completely ruined, as they are still lacking enough talent to compete in year 1 under Gase.

14) Oakland Raiders - LaQuon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
Treadwell would definitely be a luxury pick, but that offense takes another step if they draft him. Already Oakland has an elite offensive line, and their franchise QB in Derek Carr, but adding Treadwell to their core of Cooper and Crabtree would give them so many options on offense. Treadwell in the slot with Cooper and Crabtree on the outside would be incredible. They would have three players with size, athleticism, and who have terrific technique too, and this would put Oakland's offense over the top while helping their young QB grow even more. They could also look at off-ball linebackers such as Darron Lee or possibly Leonard Floyd (depending how they view him) with this pick.

15) Tennessee Titans (From Los Angeles Rams) - Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida
This is a steal for Tennessee. Hargreaves has a case to go top 10, and he is one hell of a cornerback. People will knock his size, but that shouldn't matter if you're confident in the football player you're getting. Tennessee should be extremely confident. Think of a healthy Joe Haden, that's the type of football player you're getting. Decker would also be nice here, as would a defensive lineman like Billings, but going VHIII grabs incredible value with need too.

16) Detroit Lions - Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
The Lions should be looking at need along with value at this point. There is a case to be made for a dozen different players in the middle of the first round, and Decker fits the bill for a Lions team that struggled to consistently move the ball last season. Some scouts have Decker higher than Stanley, and even though I disagree with that, Decker is a terrific prospect in his own right. Whether he starts at left or right tackle for them, this improves the entire offensive line and possibly allows Riley Reiff to move to right tackle where he would probably excel.

17) Atlanta Falcons - Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
I'd like to make it clear, this isn't what I think Atlanta will do, this is what I would do if I were them. Sanu isn't a good number 2 wide receiver, and Josh Doctson can be a great number 1 receiver let alone a number 2 guy. He is the best jump ball receiver in the draft, and one of the best overall weapons in this draft. Matt Ryan would have no excuses with an improved offensive line, a good running game, and the dynamic duo of Julio Jones and Josh Doctson. Atlanta needs to get better on offense to really compete, and this would do just that.

18) Indianapolis Colts - Jack Conklin, OT/OG, Michigan State
Protect Andrew Luck. You had one job Grigson, and you couldn't figure it out. Conklin can help in this department, a lot. I'd have him slide in as the right tackle and play Mewhort at guard, but he gives you some flexibility. Conklin isn't the most athletic, but he's very technically sound and has an extremely high motor. Does a terrific job looking for work, so even when Luck holds onto the ball too long, Conklin can help. This offense has the potential to be the best in the league, but it all starts with protecting Luck.

19) Buffalo Bills - Kevin Dodd, EDGE, Clemson
Dodd fits terrifically with the Bills defensive line. He can slide in immediately as the strong-side defensive end, and playing beside Dareus, Williams and Hughes will allow him to play through any rookie struggles he may face. On the other end of the spectrum, his upside as a pass rusher and impact run defender is too tantalizing for Buffalo to pass on.

20) New York Jets - Darron Lee, LB, Ohio State
The speedy off-ball linebacker would fit in perfectly with this Jets defense. They have a hole at linebacker, and their defensive line would free Lee up to utilize his speed and just make plays instead of taking on blockers. Todd Bowles wants to get younger and faster on defense, and Lee helps with both.

21) Washington - Andrew Billings, NT, Washington
There have been many questions about his age, whether he's 20, 21 or 22, but I don't care, Billings is a beast. He is the strongest player in this draft, and it's not just flashy strength it's all fundamental strength. His power consistently shows up on tape, and he has surprising quickness too. Billings is a monster, and takes on multiple lineman better than anybody in the draft.

22) Houston Texans - Cody Whitehair, OG/C, Kansas State
The Texans should feel confident about their defense going into 2016, even without any additions there is talent on all levels (although they need an upgrade at safety). On offense, the additions of Osweiler and Miller are huge, but they should invest in making sure they can get the most production out of those two. Whitehair is as technically sound of an offensive lineman since Zack Martin, and he is a plug-and-play player anywhere on the line. With the losses of Ben Jones and Brandon Brooks, Whitehair brings terrific fit to go along with great value.

23) Minnesota Vikings - Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State
Wide receiver seems to be the most obvious route for Minnesota to go, and Michael Thomas is the best available. He is a terrific receiver and I think is becoming very underrated in this draft. He has size, athleticism and is a great route runner. Paired with Stefon Diggs, they could make a formidable pair for Teddy Bridgewater. Corey Coleman would be another great option, but I think Thomas is a better overall receiver and a better fit for the Vikings.

24) Cincinnati Bengals - Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
Another wide receiver who could be off the board much earlier, but the Bengals will gladly take him here. Coleman is just explosive. He's very raw and needs to show he can consistently run routes (as most Baylor wide receivers do), but he has an abundance of talent. Even without Hue Jackson, I think Cincinnati can get a lot out of him right away, without putting too much pressure on him.

25) Pittsburgh Steelers - William Jackson III, CB, Houston
This has become somewhat of a trendy pick in mock drafts, but I like it. He's probably a year or two away from really becoming a reliable full-time starter, but his length and speed are too appealing for a Steelers team that has been shaky at best in the secondary in recent years. He has an incredibly high ceiling, and could be a shut down cornerback. Considering this is late in the first round, that upside alone is terrific value.

26) Seattle Seahawks - Germain Ifedi, OT/OG, Texas A&M
Seattle is an incredibly well-balanced team, and a perennial contender, but man does their O-line suck. Ifedi has the perfect build of an offensive lineman, long arms, and is incredibly athletic. He could immediately replace J.R. Sweezy next season, and be even better right from the get go. If Seattle can allow him time to grow and develop, he could be a star. Incredibly high ceiling, and as a late first round pick, this pick has good value too.

27) Green Bay Packers - Jarran Reed, NT/DT, Alabama
Billings would be nice here too, but Reed falls into the Packers lap and fills a huge need too. B.J. Raji is taking a sabbatical, and the Packers don't have the same depth on their defensive line as they did last season. Reed is an instant impact run defender, and while he currently won't bring much in the sense of rushing the passer, he can still develop that part of his game and to start he can try and eat space for the playmakers across the Packers D. An ILB would be nice here too, but the defensive line must be addressed too.

28) Kansas City Chiefs - MacKensie Alexander, CB, Clemson
Cornerback height is like quarterback hand size to me. It is a factor, but it isn't the ONLY factor. Alexander is 5'10, but he can play. Pairing him with Marcus Peters gives KC a potentially dominant cornerback duo for the next decade. Alexander needs to be more consistent, but he has flashed the instincts and ability to be a shutdown cover corner.

29) Arizona Cardinals - Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama
The Arizona Cardinals are in win-now mode, and this is a terrific pick for just that. Ryan Kelly can immediately slot in as their starting center, and be a leader on that offensive line. On tape, he plays with a non stop motor and good technique, and he would help open up huge holes in the run game for David Johnson.

30) Carolina Panthers - Karl Joseph, SS, West Virginia
Joseph is getting so much buzz as of late, and he should be the first safety off the board come draft day. He's one of the rare safeties that could be an impact player in both run and pass defense. Carolina will be tempted to go with a CB here, especially after the Norma debacle, but Joseph represents terrific value, an immediate high-quality starter, and a terrific fit with Kurt Coleman at the back of this stellar Panthers.

31) Denver Broncos - A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama
Going QB is tempting, as is offensive line, but the strength of this team is on defense, and after losing a couple players in free agency they should focus on keeping their defense strong. Robinson has terrific size to be a terror for opposing offenses, and he has shown on tape he can flat out play. He's not as polished as Jarran Reed, but he has higher upside as he's shown flashes of being able to rush the passer.

*New England Patriot's 1st round pick forfeited.

Round 2

32) Cleveland - Leonard Floyd, LB, Georgia
33) Tennessee - Josh Perry, LB, Ohio State
34) Dallas - Noah Spence, Edge, Eastern Kentucky
35) San Diego - Chris Jones, DT, Mississippi State
36) Baltimore - Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
37) San Fransisco - Hunter Henry, TE, Arkansas
38) Jacksonville - KeiVarie Russell, CB, Notre Dame
39) Tampa Bay - Shon Coleman, OT, Auburn
40) New York Giants - Darian Thompson, FS, Boise State
41) Chicago - Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss
42) Miami - Artie Burns, CB, Miami
43) Tennessee (From Los Angeles) - Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana
44) Oakland - Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame
45) Tennessee (From Los Angeles) - Kamalei Correa, EDGE, Boise State
46) Detroit - Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech
47) New Orleans - Emmanuel Ogbah, EDGE, Oklahoma State
48) Indianapolis - Kenny Clark, DT/NT, UCLA
49) Buffalo - Joshua Garnett, OG, Stanford
50) Atlanta - Su'a Cravens, LB, UCLA
51) New York Jets - Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State
52) Houston - Sterling Sheppard, WR, Oklahoma
53) Washington - Jayron Kearse, FS, Clemson
54) Minnesota - Keanu Neal, SS, Florida
55) Cincinnati - Austin Johnson, NT, Penn State
56) Seattle - Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
57) Green Bay - Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame
58) Pittsburgh - Jerald Hawkins, OT, LSU
59) Kansas City - Shilique Calhoun, EDGE, Michigan State
60) New England - Jordan Jenkins, EDGE, Georgia
61) New England (From Arizona) - Christian Westerman, OG, Arizona State
62) Carolina - Xavien Howard, CB, Baylor
63) Denver - Cardale Jones, QB, Ohio State

Round 3

64) Tennessee - Willie Henry, DT, Michigan
65) Cleveland - Jonathan Bullard, DT, Florida
66) San Diego - Vonn Bell, S, Ohio State
67) Dallas - Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama
68) San Fransisco - La'Raven Clark, OT, Texas Tech
69) Jacksonville - Braxton Miller, WR, Ohio State
70) Baltimore - Nick Martin, C/OG, Notre Dame
71) New York Giants - Deion Jones, LB, LSU
72) Chicago - Paul Perkins, RB, UCLA
73) Miami - C.J. Prosise, RB, Notre Dame
74) Tampa Bay - Roberto Aguaya, K, FSU
75) Oakland - Maliek Collins, DT, Nebraska
76) Tennessee (From Los Angeles) - Connor McGovern, OG, Missouri
77) Cleveland (From Philadelphia) - Nick Vannett, TE, Ohio State
78) New Orleans - Vadal Alexander, OG, LSU
79) Cleveland (From Philadelphia) - Jeremy Cash, SS, Duke
80) Buffalo - Hassan Ridgeway, DT, Texas
81) Atlanta - Kentrell Brothers, ILB, Missouri
82) Indianapolis - Kevin Peterson, CB, Oklahoma State
83) New York Jets - Alex Collins, RB, Nebraska
84) Washington - Devontae Booker, RB, Utah
85) Houston - Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn State
86) Minnesota - Tyler Boyd, WR, Pittsburgh
87) Cincinnati - Sheldon Day, DT, Notre Dame
88) Green Bay - Landon Turner, OG, North Carolina
89) Pittsburgh - Jalen Mills, FS, LSU
90) Seattle - Max Tuerk, C, USC
91) New England - Jordan Howard, RB, Indiana
92) Arizona - Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi state
93) Carolina - Carl Nassib, DE, Penn State
94) Denver - Evan Boehm, OC, Missouri
95) Detroit (Comp. pick) - Bronson Kaufusi, DE, Brigham Young
96) New England (Comp. pick) - Daniel Braverman, WR, Western Michigan
97) Seattle (Comp. pick) - Jack Allen, C, Michigan State
98) Denver (Comp. pick) - Kenyan Drake, RB, Alabama

*Kansas City's 3rd round pick forfeited.

Round 4

99) Cleveland - Joe Haeg, OT, North Dakota State
100) Philadelphia (From Tennessee) - Rashard Higgins, WR, Colorodo State
101) Dallas - Leonte Carroo, WR, Rutgers
102) San Diego - Austin Hooper, TE, Stanford
103) Jacksonville - Miles Killebrew, SS, Southern Utah
104) Baltimore - Kenneth Dixon, RB, Louisiana Tech
105) San Fransisco - Malcolm Mitchell, WR, Georgia
106) Chicago - Rashard Robinson, CB, LSU
107) Miami - Charles Tapper, DE, Oklahoma
108) Tampa Bay - Javon Hargrave, DT, South Carolina State
109) New York Giants - Scooby Wright III, ILB, Arizona
110) Los Angeles - Dominique Alexander, ILB, Oklahoma
111) Detroit - Zack Sanchez, CB, Oklahoma
112) New Orleans - John Theus, OT, Georgia
113) Los Angeles (From Tennessee) - Jordan Payton, WR, UCLA
114) Oakland - Sean Davis, CB/S, Maryland
115) Atlanta - Kyler Fackrell, EDGE, Utah
116) Indianapolis - Tyler Matakevich, ILB, Temple
117) Buffalo - T.J. Green, FS, Clemson
118) New York Jets - Kyle Murphy, OT, Stanford
119) Houston - Jonathan Williams, RB, Arkansas
120) Washington - Cyrus Jones, CB, Alabama
121) Minnesota - Sebastian Tretola, OG, Arkansas
122) Cincinnati - KJ Dillon, SS, West Virginia
123) Pittsburgh - Adolphus Washington, DT, Ohio State
124) Seattle - Charone Peake, WR, Clemson
125) Green Bay - Eric Striker, LB, Oklahoma
126) Kansas City - Jihad Ward, DE, Illinois
127) Chicago (From New England) - Denver Kirkland, OG, Arkansas
128) Arizona - DJ Reader, NT, Clemson
129) Carolina - Jason Fanaika, DE, Utah
130) Baltimore (From Denver) - Spencer Drango, OG, Baylor
131) Green Bay (Comp. pick) - Kenny Lawler, WR, Cal
132) Baltimore (Comp. pick) - Jatavis Brown, LB, Akron
133) San Fransisco (Comp. pick) - Kolby Listenbee, WR, TCU
134) Baltimore (Comp. pick) - Keyarris Gerrett, WR, Tulsa
135) Dallas (Comp. pick) - Jerell Adams, TE, South Carolina
136) Denver (Comp. pick) - Cole Toner, OT, Harvard
137) Green Bay (Comp. pick) - Willie Beavers, OT, Western Michigan
138) Cleveland (Comp. pick) - Yannick Ngakoue, EDGE, Maryland
139) Buffalo (Comp. pick) - D.J. White, CB, Georgia Tech

Round 5

140) Tennessee - Eric Murray, CB, Minnesota
141) Cleveland - Joe Schobert, LB, Wisconsin
142) San Fransisco (From San Diego) - Juston Burris, CB, N.C. State
143) Oakland (From Dallas) - Will Redmond, CB, Mississippi State
144) Denver (From Baltimore) - Pharoh Cooper, WR, South Carolina
145) San Fransisco - Graham Glasgow, OG/C, Michigan
146) Jacksonville - Blake Martinez, ILB, Stanford
147) Miami - Deiondre' Hall, CB, Northern Iowa
148) Tampa Bay - Harlan Miller, CB, Southeastern Louisiana
149) New York Giants - Jonathan Jones, CB, Auburn
150) Chicago - Fahn Cooper, OT, Ole Miss
151) Detroit - Aaron Burbridge, WR, Michigan State
152) New Orleans - LeShaun Sims, CB, Southern Utah
153) Philadelphia - Roger Lewis, WR, Bowling Green
154) Oakland - Ronald Blair, DE, Appalachian State
155) Indianapolis - Darrell Greene, OG, Mountain Westl
156) Buffalo - Matt Judon, DE, Grand Valley State
157) New York Jets - Bryce Williams, TE, East Carolina
158) Washington - Nick Vigil, ILB, Utah State
159) Houston - DeAndre Houston-Carson, FS, WIlliam & Mary
160) Minnesota - Jared Norris, ILB, Utah
161) Cincinnati - Maurice Canady, CB, Virginia
162) Kansas City (From Seattle) - Kevin Hogan, QB, Stanford
163) Green Bay - Tom Hackett, P, Utah
164) Philadelphia (From Pittsburgh) - Keith Marshall, RB, Georgia
165) Kansas City - Isaac Seumalo, OG, Oregon State
166) Houston (From New England) - James Bradberry, CB, Samford
167) Arizona - Ken Crawley, CB, Colorodo
168) Carolina - Moritz Boehringer, WR,
169) Detroit (From Denver) - De'Vondre Campbell, LB, Minnesota
170) Arizona (Comp. pick) - Mike Thomas, WR,Southern Mississippi
171) Seattle (Comp. pick) - Travis Feeney, LB, Washington
172) Cleveland (Comp. pick) - Justin Simmons, FS, Boston College
173) Cleveland (Comp. pick) - Joe Dahl, OG, Washington State
174) San Fransisco (Comp. pick) - Anthony Zettel, DE, Penn State
175) San Diego (Comp. pick) - James Cowser, EDGE, Southern Utah

Round 6

176) Cleveland - Mitch Mathews, WR, Brigham Young
177) Los Angeles (From Tennessee) - Kevin Byard, SS, Middle Tennessee
178) San Fransisco (From Dallas) - Tajae Sharpe, WR, Massachusetts
179) San Diego - Morgan Burns, CB, Kansas State
180) Minnesota (From San Fransisco) - Ben Braunecker, TE, Harvard
181) Jacksonville - Ufomba Kamalu, DE, Florida
182) Baltimore - Tyvis Powell, FS, Ohio State
183) Tampa Bay - Demarcus Robinson, WR, Florida
184) New York Giants - Joe Thuney, OG, NC State
185) Chicago - Cody Core, WR, Ole Miss
186) Miami - Beau Sandland, TE, Montana State
187) Washington (From New Orleans) - Brandon Doughty, QB, Western Kentucky
188) Philadelphia - Matt Ioannidis, DT, Temple
189) Dallas (From Oakland) - Daryl Worley, CB, West Virginia
190) Los Angeles - Alex Lewis, OT, Nebraska
191) Detroit - Nate Sudfeld, QB, Indiana
192) Buffalo - Romeo Okwara, DE, Notre Dame
193) Tennessee (From Atlanta) - Clayton Fejedelem, SS, Illinois
194) Oakland (From Indianapolis) - Beniquez Brown, LB, Mississippi State
195) Houston (From New York Jets) - Adam Gotsis, DT, Georgia Tech
196) New England (From Houston) - Brandon Shell, OT, South Carolina
197) Tampa Bay (From Washington) - Geronimo Allison, WR, Illinois
198) San Diego (From Minnesota) - Kavon Frazier, FS, Central Michigan
199) Cincinnati - Tyler Ervin, RB, San Jose State
200) Green Bay - Thomas Duarte, TE, UCLA
201) Jacksonville (From Pittsburgh) - Rees Odhiambo, OG, Boise State
202) Detroit (From Seattle) - Avery Young, OT, Auburn
203) Kansas City - Antonio Morrison, ILB, Florida
204) New England (From Chicago) - Austin Blythe, C, Iowa
205) Arizona - Jordan Walsh, OG, Iowa
206) Chicago (From Carolina) - Jacoby Brissett, QB, NC State
207) San Fransisco (From Denver) - Peyton Barber, RB, Auburn
208) New England (Comp. pick) - Tyrone Holmes, LB, Montana
209) Baltimore (Comp. pick) - Nick Kwiatkoski, ILB, West Virginia
210) Detroit (Comp. pick) - Jordan Lucas, SS, Penn State
211) San Fransisco (Comp. pick) - Victor Ochi, LB, Stony Brook
212) Dallas (Comp. pick) - Paul McRoberts, WR, Southeast Missouri State
213) San Fransisco (Comp. pick) - Kelvin Taylor, RB, Florida
214) New England (Comp. pick) - Nile Lawrence-Stample, DT, Florida State
215) Seattle (Comp. pick) - Darius Jackson, RB, Eastern Michigan
216) Dallas (Comp. pick) - Stephen Weatherly, DE, Vanderbilt
217) Dallas (Comp. pick) - Kyle Friend, C/OG, Temple
218) Buffalo (Comp. pick) - Andy Janovich, FB, Nebraska
219) Denver (Comp. pick) - Temarrick Hemingway, TE, South Carolina State
220) Pittsburgh (Comp. pick) - Ricardo Louis, WR, Auburn

Round 7

221) Tennessee - Parker Ehinger, OG, Cincinnati
222) Cleveland - Jalin Marshall, WR, Ohio State
223) San Diego - Aaron Wallace, EDGE, UCLA
224) Seattle (From Dallas) - Hunter Sharp, WR, Utah State
225) Jacksonville - Ka'imi Fairbairn, K, UCLA
226) Miami (From Baltimore) - Bralon Addison, WR, Oregon
227) Denver (From San Fransisco) - Terrance Smith, LB, Florida State
228) Pittsburgh (From New York Giants) - Drew Kaser, P, Texas A&M
229) Chicago - Caleb Benenoch, OT, UCLA
230) Miami - Anthony Brown, CB, Purdue
231) Tampa Bay - Kevon Seymour, CB, Southern California
232) Philadelphia - DeAndre Washington, RB, Texas Tech
233) Oakland - Stephen Anderson, TE, Cal
234) Houston (From Los Angeles) - Devon Cajuste, TE, Stanford
235) Detroit - Nelson Spruce, WR, Colorodo
236) New Orleans - Cayleb Jones, WR, Arizona
237) Atlanta - Chase Farris, OG, Ohio State
238) Indianapolis - Trevon Boykin, QB, TCU
239) Minnesota (From Buffalo) - Michael Jordan, CB, Missouri Western
240) New York Jets - Jake McGee, TE, Florida
241) Washington - Jay Lee, WR, Baylor
242) Denver (From Houston) - Nila Kasitati, OG, Oklahoma
243) Minnesota - Darius Latham, DT, Indiana
244) Cincinnati - Kavon Frazier, FS, Central Michigan
245) Pittsburgh - Josh Forrest, LB, Kentucky
246) Seattle - Vernon Adams, QB, Oregon
247) Green Bay - Deon Bush, FS, Miami
248) Kansas City - Briean Boddy-Calhoun, CB, Minnesota
249) New England - Jakeem Grant, KR/WR, Texas Tech
250) Philadelphia (From Arizona) - Jimmy Pruitt, CB,
251) Carolina - Byron Marshall, WR, Oregon
252) Denver - Vincent Valentine, DT, Nebraska

Monday 15 February 2016

Post Super Bowl 2016 NFL Mock Draft


This 1st Round Mock Draft is not based off of what I think will happen in the draft, but what I think should happen. I'm using Matt Miller's Draft Big Board as a tool to assist me in writing this, and I suggest you check out his work if you want consistently great draft analysis. Enjoy!


1) Tennessee Titans - Ronnie Stanley, LT,  Notre Dame

The Titans need to protect their blossoming star, and drafting one of the best players in the draft represents good value too. Stanley gives the Titans a plug-and-play player who can immediately boost the entire offensive line. The Titans should then move Taylor Lewan to right tackle, where his skill set would be better suited anyways. With some solid young weapons in place already, Tennessee can put themselves in a position to develop an absolutely electric offense, they just have to keep Mariota off of his ass.

2) Cleveland Browns - Jared Goff, QB, Cal

Goff is just to good to pass up at this point for Cleveland. I think Goff is the superior QB prospect compared to Wentz, and he would be a great fit with Hue Jackson and this new look Browns team. He's smart, physically capable, and has terrific poise given his age. He may not do one specific thing extraordinarily well, but he checks all the boxes, and can develop even further into a top tier QB. I also would expect Jackson will be able to put him in the best position to succeed, and with surprisingly good weapons (Josh Gordon, Gary Barnridge, Travis Benjamin, Andrew Hawkins) and a terrific offensive line, Cleveland should be able to develop an actual franchise QB.

3) San Diego Chargers - Laremy Tunsil, LT, Ole Miss

This is one of the easiest picks in the draft in my opinion. If Stanley falls here, then they should go that direction, but either way I expect one of the top two offensive tackles in this draft to fall in the lap of the Chargers. Tunsil is a hell of a player, and is more than deserving of being a top 5 pick in the draft. Don't overthink this San Diego.

4) Dallas Cowboys - Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State

This is a tough pick to analyze. On one hand, the Cowboys have a small window to compete as Tony Romo is getting older and more inujry prone, yet on the other hand, the Cowboys need to prepare for life after Tony. I'm going with the latter in this scenario. Carson Wentz is one of the fastest rising talents in the draft, and Wentz gives the Cowboys a perfect heir to the Romo throne. He is still really raw, and needs to improve his accuracy and touch, but if he sits behind Romo for a couple years, he has a chance to become a top tier quarterback.

5) Jacksonville Jaguars - Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida State

This draft has gone perfectly for the Jags. While an upgrade at LT would be nice in theory, there were better options for Jacksonville to begin with, and they definitely don't need a quarterback. They have their choice of defensive players, and even though most people have Joey Bosa as the top defensive player in the draft, Jalen Ramsey would have a bigger impact on their team. Ramsey is the best defensive back to come out of the draft in years, and his impact could be Earl Thomas-esque. He is physical, smart, and versatile, and Gus Bradley should love what he brings day-in day-out to a team. He also has the size that the former Seahawks defensive coordinator loves. The Jags could go multiple directions with either Bosa and Jack on the table as well, but Ramsey is a defensive back with star studded potential.

6) Baltimore Ravens - Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State

Oh how the rich get richer. Bosa is widely considered one of the top players in the draft, if not THE top player in the draft. This is more of a value pick than anything, and even though I think Bosa is best suited to play 4-3 LE, I think he could be a terrific end in a 3-4 at the size and weight he plays at. If Baltimore so chooses, he could also be a stand up pass rusher too, but next to Brandon Williams, Bosa could wreak havoc.

7) San Fransisco 49ers - Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida

I know that Chip Kelly is supposed to hate smaller cornerbacks, but Vernon Hargreaves III is the best cornerback in this draft class. He comes in at 5'11 and just under 200 lbs, but he is big enough to keep up with any wide receiver a team chooses to put against him. Many '9ers fans may be hoping for some weapons or even a quarterback, but with the top two QB's off the board, Baalke shouldn't reach for a QB and should address offensive needs later in the draft where there is a chance for better value.

8) Miami Dolphins - Myles Jack, LB, UCLA

Dolphins fans should be ecstatic if this is how the draft plays out. Myles Jack has a chance to be the best player from this draft class, and a versatile, dominant defensive player now matter where they end up playing him. Playing him at weak-side linebacker would free him up to do what he does best, make plays. This is just a great pick for a talented team that seems to consistently underwhelm.

9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Noah Spence, EDGE, Eastern Kentucky

Tampa Bay could go CB here, as Mackenzie Alexander provides terrific value and fit, but they are in desperate need of a high-end edge rusher. Von Miller made Spence a ton of money during the NFL playoffs. That's not to say Spence is as good as Miller (I mean, who is) but NFL teams are not blind to the fact that Spence could be a Von type of player. He has some off-field concerns, but to me his talent far outweighs any of those issues. With a young developing offense, the Bucs need to surround McCoy and David with some more talent and Spence would do just that.

10) New York Giants - Jaylon Smith, ILB, Notre Dame

This would be an absolute steal if the draft plays out this way. Jaylon Smith is one of the best players in the draft, and one of the most complete linebackers to enter the draft in years. The Giants have lacked a stud linebacker for what seems like a decade, and Jaylon Smith can give them a difference maker and a leader of a talented, yet directionless defense. Simply put, Smith is a stud, and even with his injury he should be a top-10 pick.

11) Chicago Bears - Mackenzie Alexander, CB, Clemson

Alexander's slide ends at number 11, and he goes to a team stuck between rebuild mode and stay competitive. I was absolutely shocked at how competitive the Bears were last season. John Fox got his team to play their asses off every single week, even though they weren't the most talented team. The Bears are getting Kevin White back next season so it's like they are getting two top 15 picks this year. Alexander provides them with terrific value, to go along with number 1 CB potential. Alongside Kyle Fuller, they could create a devastating duo reminiscent of Chris Tillman and Tim Jennings.


12) New Orleans Saints - DeForest Buckner, DL, Oregon

Buckner is a monster. He dominates, and not just with his pure physical skills either. The Saints would have liked Mackenzie Alexander to fall one more pick so they could pair him with Delvin Breaux, but they just need talent, and Buckner gives them that and then some. Buckner would look terrific across from Cameron Jordan, and the Saints can get creative and move him around too. He is easily the best talent on the board for the Saints, and they should be happy taking him with the 12th pick.

13) Philadelphia Eagles - Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis

The Doug Pederson era has officially begun in Philly and why not take a big swing with your first pick. Lynch has the size, accuracy, arm and athleticism to flourish in the NFL, he just needs to be groomed. Doug Pederson was a terrific quarterback coach, and could be the key to help Lynch become a top tier QB. Whether he sits for a year or starts immediately, the Eagles could be looking at a franchise quarterback and those are tough to pass up.

14) Oakland Raiders - Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State

One of the most talented players in the draft, the Raiders should take Elliott if he falls to them. The diminishing valuation of running backs may bring about hesitation for this pick, especially with a solid running back in Latavius Murray on the roster. Elliott is a game changer. Derek Carr had a big season last year, but with Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield, they could have a dominant offense. It would be tempting to add a piece on defense, but the trio of Carr, Cooper and Elliott is too good to pass up.

15) Los Angeles Rams - Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss

I could see Treadwell going as high as 7th, but the Rams get a good value here while also addressing a need. The Rams have a huge question mark at QB, but they are slowly building a very talented roster on both sides of the ball, and Treadwell can help continue that trend. He can be a great X receiver, and work well with Tavon Austin and Gurley to create an explosive offense.

16) Detroit Lions - Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State

After Calvin Johnson's retirement, Detroit now has a massive need at WR. Golden Tate is a stud, and I am actually interested to see how he does being "the guy", but past Tate, there is little depth. Michael Thomas is a big, fast, strong wide receiver, and he attacks the ball at the catch point. In Stafford's best season as a pro, he threw the ball up a ton, and drafting Thomas would be a good way to give Stafford that option as Calvin Johnson was really his only one.

17) Atlanta Falcons - Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama

Atlanta has a good amount of needs considering they just missed out on a playoff berth last season, this gives them the opportunity to go best player available with their first round pick. Ragland is a classic 'Bama linebacker in that he is terrific against the run, and has flashed a strong well-rounded game against the pass too. Ragland gives them a difference maker at the linebacker position, and between Ragland, Beasley and Trufant, they could have a great young core of defenders.

18) Indianapolis Colts - Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State

Protect Andrew Luck! Apparently after one season of struggling and getting beat up, a lot of people are off the Luck bandwagon, but he's still one of the best young QB's in the game. The Colts have good weapons (Hilton, Moncrief, Fleener, Dorsett, Allen, Johnson), but they need to keep their young QB upright. Conklin is such a strong player, that he could even end up at guard. Either way he would be an upgrade for the Colts along their O-line, and is a good value at number 18.

19) Buffalo Bills - Shaq Lawson, EDGE, Clemson

It still amazes me that the Buffalo Bills had trouble pressuring opposing QB's last season with their stout defensive line. That brings to question whether they will end up keeping Mario Williams at his huge cap hit. Either way, Shaq Lawson brings incredible value this late in the first round, and is one of the best pass rushers in the entire draft. Buffalo has found their franchise quarterback in Tyrod Taylor, but now they need to support him with a great defense, and they have the pieces to do just that.

20) New York Jets - Leonard Floyd, EDGE, Georgia

The Jets may be bummed that Lawson was picked up one pick prior, but Floyd is a terrific edge rusher too. He's long and has size (may need to put on some weight though) and is incredibly athletic. Working in tandem with the Jets destructive defensive line, Floyd could have a big immediate impact.

21) Houston  Texans - Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn State

Okay, I'm going to be honest here. I'm slightly biased with this pick because I just really want to see if Bill O'Brien made that much of a difference to Hackenberg. I like Hackenberg, I think he has the tools to become a great QB, and even though he's a high-risk player, if groomed properly he could be great. Houston has talent, but QB is such a big hole that it needs to be addressed sooner rather than later. Hackenberg would provide the Texans with a potential franchise quarterback, and his big arm would be perfect for getting DeAndre Hopkins the ball. The question now is will Bill O'Brien bet on his own guy?

22) Washington Redskins - Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Ole Miss

Nkemdiche has a ton of red flags, and his production in college never fully met his potential, but boy does he have talent. In a very talented draft for defensive lineman, Nkemdiche will be overshadowed on the field by Buckner and Bosa, but he should still be a first rounder just based on his athleticism and upside. Washington surprised many (including myself) this season, and they should try and build off of a successful season by adding talent, and at pick 22, Nkemdiche is the most talented player in the draft remaining.

23) Minnesota Vikings - Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State

It's very tempting for me to go Will Fuller here, but the better value is in the big offensive tackle out of Ohio State. Decker can immediately help with pass protection and keeping Bridgewater upright, and that should be the Vikings biggest need they address this offseason. Just like the Titans with Mariota, keeping Bridgwater off his ass should be their number one priority. It helps that they have a star studded defense too, which gives them the opportunity to draft for offensive help.

24) Cincinnati Bengals - A'Shawn Robinson, DL, Alabama

The Bengals have one of the deepest, most talented overall rosters in the NFL, and they are in another position to draft for value not need. Robinson is a massive body that could be dangerous beside Geno Atkins. Already a terrific run stuffer, if he develops his game more he could be one of the best all-around DT's in the game. He should be drafted higher than 24th, but Cincinnati shouldn't complain.

25) Pittsburgh Steelers - Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State

Kelvin Beachum is an impending free agent for Pittsburgh, and whether they trust Alejandro Villanueva enough remains to be seen. Either way, they need to pad their depth across the offensive line, because keeping Big Ben healthy is the only way they have a shot at winning a Super Bowl. Conklin is a strong lineman who can anchor well, and whether he plays tackle or guard he can make an immediate difference for the Steelers.

26) Seattle Seahawks - Cody Whitehair, OG, Kansas State

The Seahawks need offensive line help in the worst way possible, and luckily in this mock draft they get terrific value. Whitehair is one of the safest picks in the entire draft, and his functional strength and intelligence would be extremely valuable to a Seattle team that relied on Wilson's ability to improvise way too much. Plug-and-play guard for Seattle.

27) Green Bay Packers - Andrew Billings, DL, Baylor

Billings' raw power is incredible. The Packers have addressed their defensive line in quite a few recent drafts, but this value is too much to pass up. He's scheme versatile, and with the Packers potentially losing Raji to free agency, Billings could be a major player in year 1 as he could easily slot into the nose tackle position in the Packers 3-4 base defense.

28) Kansas City Chiefs - Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor

Explosion. Explosion. Explosion. That's the name of the game for Coleman. While he has a lot to work on in terms of honing the technical aspect of his game, his ceiling is sky high. The Chiefs don't normally work vertically down field, but the game against New England showed that they are lacking that explosion downfield in their offense. Coleman and Maclin could end up being one of the most feared WR duo's in the NFL.

29) Arizona Cardinals - Kevin Dodd, Edge, Clemson

Arizona is one of the most complete teams in the NFL, and have successfully navigated through creating a terrific balance of young players and savvy veterans. Dodd represents great value this late in the 1st round, and could be a prime candidate to replace Dwight Freeney's production. The Cardinals should find creative ways to line him up on defense, and there is no denying his pass rushing prowess which is a key driver behind Arizona being such a stout defense.

30) Carolina Panthers - Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State

Yes a left tackle would be great, but the strength of this Panthers team relies on their ability to make plays on defense, and they need somebody to replace Charles Tillman and Cortland Finnegan. Eli Apple has the size and tremendous work ethic (according to Ohio State's coaching staff) to improve and he could be Robin to Josh Norman's Batman. Also should excel in man coverage because of his length and smooth hips, which Carolina runs a lot of.

31) Denver Broncos - Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana

Ryan Clady is a big question mark as he might not even be on the team due to injuries and his high cap number, so Denver needs to address the offensive line. Spriggs is a nice addition, and with the last pick in the first round, he has the potential to be an immediate starter and also be able to hold his own. He has the size NFL teams look for, and in his collegiate career he has shown the ability to be a good pass blocker and run blocker. This won't be a flashy pick, but could prove to be very fruitful for Denver.


*New England Patriots 1st round pick forfeited due to Deflategate