Overall: 5-11
Week 1 is a shit show. I mean I'm just bad at predicting, but week 1 is definitely a shit show too. It was chaos across the board, although it gave us some insight to a lot of teams that had questions about them. There were so many close games this week too, and spreads were missed or made by a point or two. With that being said, on to the picks for week 2!
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (NYJ -1) -> New York Jets
Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions (DET -5.5) -> Detroit Lions
Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (HOU -2.5) -> Houston Texans
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (NE -6.5) -> Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (BAL -6.5) -> Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -3.5) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (WAS -3) -> Washington Redskins
New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants (NYG -4.5) -> New Orleans Saints
San Fransisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -13.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -6.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams (SEA -6.5) -> Los Angeles Rams
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (DEN -6) -> Indianapolis Colts
Atlanta Falcons @ Oakland Raiders (OAK -4.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers (SD -3) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (GB -2) -> Minnesota Vikings
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears (CHI -3) -> Chicago Bears
A couple notes...
- Lock of the Week: Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns. I'm still not completely sold on the Ravens, although they proved me wrong in the first week, but they should handily beat the Browns even in Cleveland. McCown is now the guy in Cleveland, but they're one hit away from Cody Kessler or Kevin Hogan. Let that sink in for a second. McCown isn't the guy you want at QB to begin with, but they are really close to not winning a game this season. Baltimore shut down Tyrod Taylor in week 1, and I don't see them having any trouble with shutting down McCown. Cleveland's D should be no problem for Flacco and that offense too.
- Upset of the Week: There are so many to choose from this week. I'm going to go with the LA Rams over the Seahawks though. Now that seems crazy considering how LA played Monday night (if you didn't watch that game, lucky you). With that being said, I'm also taking into consideration how Seattle played in Week 1, and it was rough. For a team that is supposed to shut down teams at home, they were one Kenny Stills drop away from losing handily to the Miami Dolphins. Russell Wilson hurt his ankle that game too, and there's a chance he may not be 100%. Historically, Jeff Fisher and his squad brings their A game when they play the Seahawks, and I actually think they will outright beat them on Sunday.
- Some other tempting upsets were Miami over New England (although I still hate betting against Belichick), New Orleans over the Giants, San Fran against the spread vs. Carolina, Tampa Bay over Arizona, Indianapolis over Denver, Jacksonville over San Diego, and Minnesota over Green Bay (although I hate betting against Aaron Rodgers almost as much as I hate betting against Belichick). These games all feel like they're going to be way too close to have some of the spreads they do.
- I understand Denver's defense is incredible, but Andrew Luck is the QB for the Colts and Trevor Siemian is the QB for the Broncos.
- I don't trust New Orleans' defense, but their offense is so good with Brees and the Giants offense wasn't as explosive as I expected against a weaker Cowboys defense. I expect Brees to keep it to at least a field goal or potentially be able to blow out NY.
- Miami really impressed me week 1. I truly believe that Adam Gase is 100% the right coach for them and I thought Ryan Tannehill was also way better than his numbers indicated. As I've said all throughout the off-season, Seattle's offensive line is very weak, and Miami was easily able to get to Wilson on a consistent basis, but their defense still looked very good too. New England is an issue because of Belichick, and he is just way too smart even with Garappolo starting and Gronk most likely out, but I think it will be a very close game, enough to give Miami the edge under the spread.
- Tampa Bay looked fantastic week 1. They weren't perfect, but Jameis and the offense looked great and you clearly saw the playmakers they have on defense in Kwon Alexander, Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David and VHIII. I was disappointed in Arizona, and thought their game plan was too passive, but they are still a very talented team. I think Arizona will squeak out a victory, but it will be close.
- I think Jacksonville will wreck shop against San Diego. The Jags are a very good team, and were very close to beating Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in week 1. They played a very smart game too, and this defense will continue to get better along with the offense. The biggest week 1 disappointment was not only San Diego blowing such a huge lead against KC, but also Keenan Allen's injury. It was a tale of two different teams, and without Keenan Allen, San Diego seems doomed for another long season. I hope they prove me wrong because I like Phillip Rivers, but man oh man another unlucky, awful injury for the incredibly talented Allen. Rivers will have to abuse Jacksonville's linebackers in the short passing game with Danny Woodhead, but if the Jags play Myles Jack (lets hope!) then they could help minimize that issue, and apart from that the Jags win across the board. Although I can't wait to see Allen Robinson vs. Jason Verrett. Should be an awesome match-up!
- Minnesota's defense is ridiculous. I think it's the best defense in the league (sorry Denver and Seattle) and I don't think that's even that hot of a take. They have star talent and depth at every level and even with a shaky at best offense, they will compete this year. This is Bradford's first start of the year (or should be at least) and he is miles ahead of Shaun Hill in terms of talent. This should be an incredibly close game and frankly I'm torn. Green Bay should be better than they were in week 1 as Rodgers and Jordy get another week together, but I'll take the home team as the tiebreaker.
- On Thursday we're gonna see two very good defenses go off, in the Jets and Bills. Simply put, the Jets looked better in week 1, and I think they are the more talented team. I think for the Bills to win, Tyrod will have to play exceptionally, which isn't out of the question, but I still lean New York's way.
- Detroit really impressed me week 1. Andrew Luck was incredible, yet they kept on bouncing back and Stafford and that offense were outstanding. I think they should easily beat a Titans team that... er... let me just say struggled in week 1.
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans should be a fantastic game, but I'm going with Houston. ironically without Justin Houston, KC's defense didn't look nearly as potent as it has in recent years, and Houston looked good on all levels against a solid Chicago team.
- Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers should be another great game. I think it should come down to the wire, but in the end I don't see how Cincinnati is going to stop Antonio Brown.
- Washington should beat Dallas. Should. Dak had a solid showing vs. the Giants, but he really isn't being asked to do much. Washington's defense was torched by a good Pittsburgh offense, but they are still very talented and should be able to handle Dak. Washington's offense should also in theory put the throttle to Dallas' defense. I'll give Washington the benefit of the doubt in week 1, but if they don't pull this out though, then I'm going to be worried about them as a team.
- So Atlanta was better in week 1 then I thought they would be, but my god they need a pass rush. Badly. Oakland should be able to punish them for their lack of push at the line, and I expect Oakland to keep momentum going after an impressive, ballsy, week 1 win.
- Give me John Fox's Bears vs. a rookie QB. The Eagles looked way better than I thought they would in week 1, and their defense is good, but Chicago is a better team than people think. Jay Cutler is solid, and Alshon and Kevin White are too good to keep quiet all game.
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