This 1st Round Mock Draft is not based off of what I think will happen in the draft, but what I think should happen. I'm using Matt Miller's Draft Big Board as a tool to assist me in writing this, and I suggest you check out his work if you want consistently great draft analysis. Enjoy!
1) Tennessee Titans - Ronnie Stanley, LT, Notre Dame
The Titans need to protect their blossoming star, and drafting one of the best players in the draft represents good value too. Stanley gives the Titans a plug-and-play player who can immediately boost the entire offensive line. The Titans should then move Taylor Lewan to right tackle, where his skill set would be better suited anyways. With some solid young weapons in place already, Tennessee can put themselves in a position to develop an absolutely electric offense, they just have to keep Mariota off of his ass.
2) Cleveland Browns - Jared Goff, QB, Cal
Goff is just to good to pass up at this point for Cleveland. I think Goff is the superior QB prospect compared to Wentz, and he would be a great fit with Hue Jackson and this new look Browns team. He's smart, physically capable, and has terrific poise given his age. He may not do one specific thing extraordinarily well, but he checks all the boxes, and can develop even further into a top tier QB. I also would expect Jackson will be able to put him in the best position to succeed, and with surprisingly good weapons (Josh Gordon, Gary Barnridge, Travis Benjamin, Andrew Hawkins) and a terrific offensive line, Cleveland should be able to develop an actual franchise QB.
3) San Diego Chargers - Laremy Tunsil, LT, Ole Miss
This is one of the easiest picks in the draft in my opinion. If Stanley falls here, then they should go that direction, but either way I expect one of the top two offensive tackles in this draft to fall in the lap of the Chargers. Tunsil is a hell of a player, and is more than deserving of being a top 5 pick in the draft. Don't overthink this San Diego.
4) Dallas Cowboys - Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
This is a tough pick to analyze. On one hand, the Cowboys have a small window to compete as Tony Romo is getting older and more inujry prone, yet on the other hand, the Cowboys need to prepare for life after Tony. I'm going with the latter in this scenario. Carson Wentz is one of the fastest rising talents in the draft, and Wentz gives the Cowboys a perfect heir to the Romo throne. He is still really raw, and needs to improve his accuracy and touch, but if he sits behind Romo for a couple years, he has a chance to become a top tier quarterback.
5) Jacksonville Jaguars - Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida State
This draft has gone perfectly for the Jags. While an upgrade at LT would be nice in theory, there were better options for Jacksonville to begin with, and they definitely don't need a quarterback. They have their choice of defensive players, and even though most people have Joey Bosa as the top defensive player in the draft, Jalen Ramsey would have a bigger impact on their team. Ramsey is the best defensive back to come out of the draft in years, and his impact could be Earl Thomas-esque. He is physical, smart, and versatile, and Gus Bradley should love what he brings day-in day-out to a team. He also has the size that the former Seahawks defensive coordinator loves. The Jags could go multiple directions with either Bosa and Jack on the table as well, but Ramsey is a defensive back with star studded potential.
6) Baltimore Ravens - Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State
Oh how the rich get richer. Bosa is widely considered one of the top players in the draft, if not THE top player in the draft. This is more of a value pick than anything, and even though I think Bosa is best suited to play 4-3 LE, I think he could be a terrific end in a 3-4 at the size and weight he plays at. If Baltimore so chooses, he could also be a stand up pass rusher too, but next to Brandon Williams, Bosa could wreak havoc.
7) San Fransisco 49ers - Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida
I know that Chip Kelly is supposed to hate smaller cornerbacks, but Vernon Hargreaves III is the best cornerback in this draft class. He comes in at 5'11 and just under 200 lbs, but he is big enough to keep up with any wide receiver a team chooses to put against him. Many '9ers fans may be hoping for some weapons or even a quarterback, but with the top two QB's off the board, Baalke shouldn't reach for a QB and should address offensive needs later in the draft where there is a chance for better value.
8) Miami Dolphins - Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
Dolphins fans should be ecstatic if this is how the draft plays out. Myles Jack has a chance to be the best player from this draft class, and a versatile, dominant defensive player now matter where they end up playing him. Playing him at weak-side linebacker would free him up to do what he does best, make plays. This is just a great pick for a talented team that seems to consistently underwhelm.
9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Noah Spence, EDGE, Eastern Kentucky
Tampa Bay could go CB here, as Mackenzie Alexander provides terrific value and fit, but they are in desperate need of a high-end edge rusher. Von Miller made Spence a ton of money during the NFL playoffs. That's not to say Spence is as good as Miller (I mean, who is) but NFL teams are not blind to the fact that Spence could be a Von type of player. He has some off-field concerns, but to me his talent far outweighs any of those issues. With a young developing offense, the Bucs need to surround McCoy and David with some more talent and Spence would do just that.
10) New York Giants - Jaylon Smith, ILB, Notre Dame
This would be an absolute steal if the draft plays out this way. Jaylon Smith is one of the best players in the draft, and one of the most complete linebackers to enter the draft in years. The Giants have lacked a stud linebacker for what seems like a decade, and Jaylon Smith can give them a difference maker and a leader of a talented, yet directionless defense. Simply put, Smith is a stud, and even with his injury he should be a top-10 pick.
11) Chicago Bears - Mackenzie Alexander, CB, Clemson
Alexander's slide ends at number 11, and he goes to a team stuck between rebuild mode and stay competitive. I was absolutely shocked at how competitive the Bears were last season. John Fox got his team to play their asses off every single week, even though they weren't the most talented team. The Bears are getting Kevin White back next season so it's like they are getting two top 15 picks this year. Alexander provides them with terrific value, to go along with number 1 CB potential. Alongside Kyle Fuller, they could create a devastating duo reminiscent of Chris Tillman and Tim Jennings.
12) New Orleans Saints - DeForest Buckner, DL, Oregon
Buckner is a monster. He dominates, and not just with his pure physical skills either. The Saints would have liked Mackenzie Alexander to fall one more pick so they could pair him with Delvin Breaux, but they just need talent, and Buckner gives them that and then some. Buckner would look terrific across from Cameron Jordan, and the Saints can get creative and move him around too. He is easily the best talent on the board for the Saints, and they should be happy taking him with the 12th pick.
13) Philadelphia Eagles - Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
The Doug Pederson era has officially begun in Philly and why not take a big swing with your first pick. Lynch has the size, accuracy, arm and athleticism to flourish in the NFL, he just needs to be groomed. Doug Pederson was a terrific quarterback coach, and could be the key to help Lynch become a top tier QB. Whether he sits for a year or starts immediately, the Eagles could be looking at a franchise quarterback and those are tough to pass up.
14) Oakland Raiders - Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
One of the most talented players in the draft, the Raiders should take Elliott if he falls to them. The diminishing valuation of running backs may bring about hesitation for this pick, especially with a solid running back in Latavius Murray on the roster. Elliott is a game changer. Derek Carr had a big season last year, but with Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield, they could have a dominant offense. It would be tempting to add a piece on defense, but the trio of Carr, Cooper and Elliott is too good to pass up.
15) Los Angeles Rams - Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
I could see Treadwell going as high as 7th, but the Rams get a good value here while also addressing a need. The Rams have a huge question mark at QB, but they are slowly building a very talented roster on both sides of the ball, and Treadwell can help continue that trend. He can be a great X receiver, and work well with Tavon Austin and Gurley to create an explosive offense.
16) Detroit Lions - Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State
After Calvin Johnson's retirement, Detroit now has a massive need at WR. Golden Tate is a stud, and I am actually interested to see how he does being "the guy", but past Tate, there is little depth. Michael Thomas is a big, fast, strong wide receiver, and he attacks the ball at the catch point. In Stafford's best season as a pro, he threw the ball up a ton, and drafting Thomas would be a good way to give Stafford that option as Calvin Johnson was really his only one.
17) Atlanta Falcons - Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama
Atlanta has a good amount of needs considering they just missed out on a playoff berth last season, this gives them the opportunity to go best player available with their first round pick. Ragland is a classic 'Bama linebacker in that he is terrific against the run, and has flashed a strong well-rounded game against the pass too. Ragland gives them a difference maker at the linebacker position, and between Ragland, Beasley and Trufant, they could have a great young core of defenders.
18) Indianapolis Colts - Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
Protect Andrew Luck! Apparently after one season of struggling and getting beat up, a lot of people are off the Luck bandwagon, but he's still one of the best young QB's in the game. The Colts have good weapons (Hilton, Moncrief, Fleener, Dorsett, Allen, Johnson), but they need to keep their young QB upright. Conklin is such a strong player, that he could even end up at guard. Either way he would be an upgrade for the Colts along their O-line, and is a good value at number 18.
19) Buffalo Bills - Shaq Lawson, EDGE, Clemson
It still amazes me that the Buffalo Bills had trouble pressuring opposing QB's last season with their stout defensive line. That brings to question whether they will end up keeping Mario Williams at his huge cap hit. Either way, Shaq Lawson brings incredible value this late in the first round, and is one of the best pass rushers in the entire draft. Buffalo has found their franchise quarterback in Tyrod Taylor, but now they need to support him with a great defense, and they have the pieces to do just that.
20) New York Jets - Leonard Floyd, EDGE, Georgia
The Jets may be bummed that Lawson was picked up one pick prior, but Floyd is a terrific edge rusher too. He's long and has size (may need to put on some weight though) and is incredibly athletic. Working in tandem with the Jets destructive defensive line, Floyd could have a big immediate impact.
21) Houston Texans - Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn State
Okay, I'm going to be honest here. I'm slightly biased with this pick because I just really want to see if Bill O'Brien made that much of a difference to Hackenberg. I like Hackenberg, I think he has the tools to become a great QB, and even though he's a high-risk player, if groomed properly he could be great. Houston has talent, but QB is such a big hole that it needs to be addressed sooner rather than later. Hackenberg would provide the Texans with a potential franchise quarterback, and his big arm would be perfect for getting DeAndre Hopkins the ball. The question now is will Bill O'Brien bet on his own guy?
22) Washington Redskins - Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Ole Miss
Nkemdiche has a ton of red flags, and his production in college never fully met his potential, but boy does he have talent. In a very talented draft for defensive lineman, Nkemdiche will be overshadowed on the field by Buckner and Bosa, but he should still be a first rounder just based on his athleticism and upside. Washington surprised many (including myself) this season, and they should try and build off of a successful season by adding talent, and at pick 22, Nkemdiche is the most talented player in the draft remaining.
23) Minnesota Vikings - Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
It's very tempting for me to go Will Fuller here, but the better value is in the big offensive tackle out of Ohio State. Decker can immediately help with pass protection and keeping Bridgewater upright, and that should be the Vikings biggest need they address this offseason. Just like the Titans with Mariota, keeping Bridgwater off his ass should be their number one priority. It helps that they have a star studded defense too, which gives them the opportunity to draft for offensive help.
24) Cincinnati Bengals - A'Shawn Robinson, DL, Alabama
The Bengals have one of the deepest, most talented overall rosters in the NFL, and they are in another position to draft for value not need. Robinson is a massive body that could be dangerous beside Geno Atkins. Already a terrific run stuffer, if he develops his game more he could be one of the best all-around DT's in the game. He should be drafted higher than 24th, but Cincinnati shouldn't complain.
25) Pittsburgh Steelers - Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
Kelvin
Beachum is an impending free agent for Pittsburgh, and whether they trust
Alejandro Villanueva enough remains to be seen. Either way, they need to pad
their depth across the offensive line, because keeping Big Ben healthy is the
only way they have a shot at winning a Super Bowl. Conklin is a strong lineman
who can anchor well, and whether he plays tackle or guard he can make an
immediate difference for the Steelers.
26) Seattle Seahawks - Cody Whitehair, OG, Kansas State
The
Seahawks need offensive line help in the worst way possible, and luckily in
this mock draft they get terrific value. Whitehair is one of the safest picks
in the entire draft, and his functional strength and intelligence would be
extremely valuable to a Seattle team that relied on Wilson's ability to
improvise way too much. Plug-and-play guard for Seattle.
27) Green Bay Packers - Andrew Billings, DL, Baylor
Billings'
raw power is incredible. The Packers have addressed their defensive line in
quite a few recent drafts, but this value is too much to pass up. He's scheme
versatile, and with the Packers potentially losing Raji to free agency,
Billings could be a major player in year 1 as he could easily slot into the
nose tackle position in the Packers 3-4 base defense.
28) Kansas City Chiefs - Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
Explosion.
Explosion. Explosion. That's the name of the game for Coleman. While he has a
lot to work on in terms of honing the technical aspect of his game, his ceiling
is sky high. The Chiefs don't normally work vertically down field, but the game
against New England showed that they are lacking that explosion downfield in
their offense. Coleman and Maclin could end up being one of the most feared WR
duo's in the NFL.
29) Arizona Cardinals - Kevin Dodd, Edge, Clemson
Arizona
is one of the most complete teams in the NFL, and have successfully navigated
through creating a terrific balance of young players and savvy veterans. Dodd
represents great value this late in the 1st round, and could be a prime
candidate to replace Dwight Freeney's production. The Cardinals should find
creative ways to line him up on defense, and there is no denying his pass
rushing prowess which is a key driver behind Arizona being such a stout
defense.
30) Carolina Panthers - Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
Yes a
left tackle would be great, but the strength of this Panthers team relies on
their ability to make plays on defense, and they need somebody to replace
Charles Tillman and Cortland Finnegan. Eli Apple has the size and tremendous
work ethic (according to Ohio State's coaching staff) to improve and he could
be Robin to Josh Norman's Batman. Also should excel in man coverage because of
his length and smooth hips, which Carolina runs a lot of.
31) Denver Broncos - Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana
Ryan Clady
is a big question mark as he might not even be on the team due to injuries and
his high cap number, so Denver needs to address the offensive line. Spriggs is
a nice addition, and with the last pick in the first round, he has the
potential to be an immediate starter and also be able to hold his own. He has
the size NFL teams look for, and in his collegiate career he has shown the
ability to be a good pass blocker and run blocker. This won't be a flashy pick,
but could prove to be very fruitful for Denver.
*New England Patriots 1st round pick forfeited due to Deflategate
