NFL Predictions: Conference Championship Weekend

Last Week: 1-3
Overall: 3-5

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (NE -3) -> Denver Broncos
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -3) -> Carolina Panthers

A couple notes...
- Last week was so close across the board. The three bad picks were all 2 points or less away from being right. Brutal. That's what happens in the playoffs though, most of the games, especially the ones left, are toss ups.
- The Broncos and Patriots game should be great. Not because of Manning or Brady, but because this is the Broncos vs. the Patriots. I predict this game going one of two ways. Either Brady, Belichick and the Patriots blow out Denver, or Denver wins a close one. I'm going with the latter because this is a great defense in Denver. Sure, they gave up a lot of big plays last week against Pittsburgh, and Big Ben was hurt too (although he didn't look it), but they still didn't allow a touchdown. The biggest question mark in this game is Chris Harris. He's playing with a banged up shoulder which will limit his ability to play at the line and press coverage on Julian Edelman. That should be who the Pats queue up on, but Harris is still really talented, and if he can contain Edelman then Denver should win.
- The Cardinals and Panthers is just a game where the two best teams in the NFL this year face off against one another. Two great defenses,  two high scoring offenses, and two elite (you heard me) quarterbacks. The reason why I'm going with Carolina is simple. I have more faith in Cam Newton right now than Carson Palmer. The last few weeks, Carson Palmer hasn't looked great. Against the Packers last week, he made some horrible decisions (his second touchdown was pure luck) and Fitz bailed him out. Although the Panthers struggled in the second half and Cam wasn't asked to do much all game, Cam has been very consistent this entire year, and I think he can pull out the win.
- One more thing, holy shit what a game the Packers and Cardinals had last week! Easily the game of the year for me. The Packers played their asses off, and even with Jeff Janis and Jared Abbrederis as his two top receivers, Aaron Rodgers wowed the entire world once again. The only disappointment on my end is once again the Packers lose in overtime AND Aaron Rodgers doesn't even get a chance to have the ball. Although Larry Fitzgerald put his team on his back. That was two great teams showcasing how tough they are, and I expect both teams to consistently be back in the playoffs as long as each of their respective QB's are healthy.

NFL Predictions: Divisional Round

Last Week: 2-2
Playoff Record: 2-2

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots (NE -5) -> Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -7) -> Arizona Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -1.5) -> Carolina Panthers
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (DEN -7.5) -> Denver Broncos

A couple notes...
- The Pats are banged up. Really banged up. Brady's hurting, Gronk's hurting, Edelman and Amendola are both questionable, and the defense is banged up too. Kansas City's defense is a tough draw for anyone, and unless Edelman is playing, the Pats will struggle to put points on the board. It's tough to pick against the Patriots in the playoffs, and as long as Brady is playing then they have a shot, but they are 2-4 in their last six games and this season has been taking a toll on them. Alex Smith will just need to do what he does best, limit mistakes. No matter who wins it should at least be a close game.
- The NFC just has more exciting games this weekend. Packers vs. Cardinals, Rodgers vs. Palmer, hell yes. Arizona is just the better more complete team in this game though. I think it'll be a lot closer than the blowout a few weeks ago, but Arizona's offensive and defensive talent will be too much for the Packers. The one thing that Green Bay has going for them is they do have Aaron Rodgers. Just like Tom Brady, you can never count Rodgers out. Even looking back at the blowout a few weeks ago too, up until two minutes before the half, Green Bay was completely in the game. If Rodgers turned the Mike Daniels screen into a touchdown, it's 10-10 going into the second half. This should be a very entertaining game, but Arizona is the more complete team.
- So the Seahawks snuck past the wildcard round thanks to a Blair Walsh missed kick, but they are going to have to bring a completely different team to the field if they want to have a shot against the Panthers. Seattle seemed to be missing a beat this past weekend, and Carolina will kick their ass if they play like that again. The Panthers match up pretty well against the Seahawks, with fast athletic linebackers to contain Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. Josh Norman leads a tough Panthers secondary and Wilson will have a hard time beating them. He'll have to rely on his ability to extend plays but this isn't the defense to do that against. Also Greg Olsen has a good matchup against Kam Chancellor. The Seahawks D is still terrific, but Chancellor has been very beatable recently (see Kyle Rudolph in the last series against Minnesota) and Cam Newton's favourite target could have himself a field day. Seattle seems more lucky then good in recent weeks, and they are going up against too good of a team to just be lucky. Give me Carolina.
- Peyton Manning is back! I really, really want Peyton Manning to go out on top with a Super Bowl win, and I'm not a Denver fan. How perfect would that be for one of the all-time greats. Either way, I think Denver beats up on Pittsburgh. Antonio Brown isn't playing Sunday, and Big Ben has a separated shoulder. Oh and the Steelers are going up against the best D in the league (you heard me). If Peyton Manning can be an adequate game manager, then this should be an easy win for Denver.

NFL Predictions: Wildcard Playoff Games

Regular Season Record: 119-129-8

Playoff Record: 0-0

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (KC -3) -> Kansas City Chiefs

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (PIT -2) -> Cincinnati Bengals

Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (SEA -4.5) -> Seattle Seahawks

Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins (WAS -1) -> Washington Redskins

A couple notes...

- The Chiefs and Texans game should be a close one. I think the Texans can somewhat shut down the Chiefs offense, but it comes down to what the Texans can do with their offense. If they can spark something small, even just a couple touchdowns throughout the entire game, then I think they can steal this one. I'm picking the Chiefs though because I think their defense is too good for an injured, weak Texans offense.

- Of course Cincinnati's shot at finally getting a playoff win comes with AJ McCarron at the helm. I think it's going to happen too. AJ McCarron has shown me enough to believe he can get his talented weapons the ball, and that is all that matters. Tyler Eifert will be a HUGE matchup problem for the Steelers, and I expect him to have a monster game. Between Eifert, Green, Jones, Sanu, Bernard and Hill, they should be able to put up some points on a weak Steelers defense. Now I don't feel safe betting on McCarron over Roethlisberger, but Big Ben hasn't been as sharp as his usual self over these past few weeks, and with no running game now that DeAngelo Williams is out, the Bengals can cue on Antonio Brown and the Steelers air attack, which is why I think they'll pull this one out.

- Seattle matches up terrifically against Minnesota. Really there is nothing else to it. The Vikings have had a really hard time keeping Bridgwater upright all season, and between Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett, Seattle will dial up the pressure without even having to blitz. This game will come down to Teddy Bridgewater being able to make plays against one of the best defenses in the league (and the best run defense too), and I don't know if I like those odds. Granted, this game becomes a lot closer when you look at the other side of the ball, because Marshawn Lynch is out for the game, and Russell Wilson will have to make plays against a very, very good Minnesota defense. I still take Seattle, but this should be a very entertaining, very defensive game.

- The Green Bay-Washington game really intrigues me, but just based off of how both of these teams have been playing in recent weeks, I can't pick the Packers. Kirk Cousins has been terrific in the second half of the season, and I don't know if the Packers have enough of an answer for Jordan Reed even given their versatile secondary. Washington should be able to score enough points that the Packers will need a good day on offense to win, and I just don't think they can get that from an offense that can't create separation in the passing game and also has a very inconsistent run game. I never would have imagined in the preseason I would be taking Washington over Green Bay in the playoffs, but here we are.

NFL Predictions: Week 17

Last week of the regular season. I'll need a miracle to break even on the year, but hopefully I can at least end on a high note.

Last Week: 8-8
Overall: 113-120-7

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (NYJ -3) -> New York Jets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -10.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (NE -10) -> New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -9.5) -> Cincinnati Bengals
New Orleans Saints @ Atlants Falcons (ATL -5.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (HOU -6.5) -> Houston Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (PIT -11) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -7) -> Oakland Raiders
Tennessee Titans @ Indianpolis Colts (IND -6) -> Tennessee Titans
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (WAS -4) -> Washington Redskins
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (EVEN) -> Detroit Lions
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (NYG -5) -> New York Giants
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos (DEN -9) -> San Diego Chargers
St. Louis Rams @ San Fransisco 49ers (STL -3.5) -> St. Louis Rams
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -6.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (GB -3) -> Green Bay Packers

A couple notes...
- Part of me wants to bet on all the 9 outcomes that would get the Colts to the playoffs, but I just can't bring myself to do that... Still rooting for that to happen though.
- The last week of the season is one of the toughest weeks to bet on because depending on the score in certain games teams sometimes pull their starters and play more conservative, which screws with the spread.
- The Colts are in a position where best case scenario Charlie "Clipboard Jesus" Whitehurst is their starter. Best case. That's just ridiculous. The Titans have not been playing good football this entire year, but they should keep it close and could easily pull off the upset.
-The Chiefs have been playing really good football, but it hasn't been because of their offense. Oakland is a young talented team that overall has played well this year, I think they should keep it close enough to cover the spread.
- I'm still shocked that Pittsburgh lost to Baltimore. Either way I feel comfortable going in on Big Ben having a big game against the Browns. On top of that, for the 4th straight year, Cleveland is starting their 3rd string QB in the last week of the season, so that's hilarious.
- Hell yeah, Seattle @ Arizona and Minnesota @ Green Bay to close out this football season. I don't feel overly confident in either of my picks for those games, but that should be some entertaining football.
- Lock of the Week: Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys. I'm absolutely stunned that I think Washington is a lock, but this is what this season has come down to. Captain Kirk has been terrific throughout the second half of the season and Dallas has not. Simple as that.
- Upset of the Week: San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos. None of my "upsets" are games where I think the underdog is actually going to flat out win, I just think they will cover the spread. I feel pretty good about this game being a close one. Pretty much every team has been able to keep it close with the Broncos this season (except the Packers and San Diego the first game), and the Broncos only scored 17 points the first game too. Just based off of that, I think San Diego should have a better output against a slightly more vulnerable Broncos defense (still elite, they just haven't been shutting down opponents recently).