NFL Predictions 2016: Week 4

Last Week: 7-9

Overall: 18-30

I'm improving? Every week I think I'm getting a better grasp on who teams really are. There are a group of roughly 7 teams who are the clear teams to beat, with no single team standing out a ton yet (other than the Patriots but I'm still waiting for Tom to return). Then there is a group of 15ish teams that are inconsistent to say the least. I've fallen trap to a lot of teams here, and they bring it one week and get flat out outplayed the next (*cough* Washington, Buffalo Tampa Bay, Oakland *cough*). Finally there are the teams that just suck. At least right now. Some are talented teams playing like crap, others are horribly coached, and others are weak rosters playing their asses off. So, lets see who proves me wrong this week.

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -7.5) -> Miami Dolphins

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (London game) (IND -2.5) -> Indianapolis Colts

Cleveland Browns @ Washington Redskins (WAS -8) -> Washington Redskins

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (NE -6) -> New England Patriots

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Jets (SEA -2.5) -> New York Jets

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (CAR -3) -> Carolina Panthers

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (DET -3) -> Detroit Lions

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (HOU -4.5) -> Houston Texans

Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -3.5) -> Oakland Raiders

Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DEN -3) -> Denver Broncos

Dallas Cowboys @ San Fransisco 49ers (DAL -2.5) -> Dallas Cowboys

New Orleans Saints @ San Diego Chargers (SD -4) -> New Orleans Saints

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -8) -> Arizona Cardinals

Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -5) -> Kansas City Chiefs

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -5) -> Minnesota Vikings

A couple notes...

- The Bengals in primetime or Miami on the road... Damn. This is not a good way to start the week. I like the way Gase is coaching this team though, and I mean, it's been 5+ years and I just still do not believe in Andy Dalton. Oh well. Cinci is the more talented team, but 7.5 is a big spread on a short week where anything can happen. AJ Green should have a monster game though. Like enormous.

- It seems like whenever there is football in London, a coach gets fired. To be honest I'm not even a hundred percent sure a coach has gotten fired after the London game, but man oh man I have a bad feeling this week for Gus Bradley. I love the Jags roster, I've bet on them each of the last two weeks, but this team has not performed close to offseason expectations. If Andrew Luck has a decent game, it could be the end of the Gus Bradley era in Jacksonville.

- I AM NOT BETTING AGAINST BELICHICK THIS WEEK. My instincts even tell me to go for Buffalo. They brought a storm last week vs. Arizona, and Rex seems to play BB hard, and the Pats might be starting Julian Fucking Edelman at QB, but damn it's Bill Belichick. I can't do it anymore. He's too good.

- I realize I'm going with a ton of road teams this week, and I'm prepared for the downfall of this, but the games just fell that way. I'm not betting for Chicago, San Fran or Tampa Bay after the last couple weeks, especially considering who they are all going up against. I also expect big bounce back weeks from Carolina and Arizona.

- Minnesota might be the best team in the NFL. I cannot believe I'm writing this sentence after they lost Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson, but it's true. I've always been a big believer in this defense. The depth at edge and the creative ways Mike Zimmer brings pressure on opposing QB's, and then they have an incredible group of linebackers and a great secondary headed by the best safety in the league (you heard me) Harrison Smith. This team is basically the Denver Broncos but with Sam BRadford instead of Trevor Siemian. I think at the top of the NFL, it is the Pats, Vikings, Green Bay (permitted Aaron Rodgers is at least solid by his standards), Denver and Seattle (permitted Wilson can stay healthy and the offense can be okay). The rest of the teams I have serious questions about. Although Carolina is close to this group, and if Carson Palmer bounces back then Arizona is right there too.

NFL Predictions 2016: Week 3

Last Week: 6-10
Overall: 11-21

Well I'm bad. The turning point that I've called before the season though is after week 3. That's when you usually find out what teams true identities really are, what coaches bring to the table, and the spreads aren't as ridiculous. The worst part of all of this is I'm missing on the spreads by a point or on unlucky plays consistently. Baltimore and Cleveland, I just missed, the Pats and Dolphins they couldn't complete the comeback and I missed by half a point, Carolina scored 17 points on San Fran in the last 4 minutes, and Denver got the sack/fumble to complete the spread. My luck has to turn soon... hopefully...

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (EVEN) -> Houston Texans
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -3) -> Denver Broncos
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -1.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills (ARI -4) -> Arizona Cardinals
Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars (BAL -1) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -9.5) -> Miami Dolphins
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (NYG -4.5) -> New York Giants
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (GB -7.5) -> Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -7) -> Minnesota Vikings
San Fransisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -9.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (TB -5.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles (PIT -3.5) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -3) -> Kansas City Chiefs
San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -3) -> Indianapolis Colts
Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys (DAL -7) -> Dallas Cowboys
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (NO -3) -> New Orleans Saints

A couple notes...
- If Belichick wins with Brissett, I promise you for the rest of the season I will not bet against him. The spread could be Pats -10000 and I'm going Pats. Houston is a really, really talented team, and I think they should win this short week game against a rookie QB. I'm sure Belichick will set Brissett up nicely with a lot of short, high percentile throws, but the Texans are too good to beat that way.
- I'm a glutton for punishment, I'm going Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and Oakland after last week. I think all three of these teams are talented, they just need to get back on track and I think they all have good match-ups. It will come down to QB play, and all three young quarterbacks could torch their opposing defenses, or at least not throw their respective games away.
- I can't see Seattle, Carolina, and Green Bay putting up enough points to beat their spreads, but I think all three teams should win.
- Lock of the Week: Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills. The Bills fired their offensive coordinator, yet their defense has been awful. Hmmm. I will take Arizona all day long. Their defense should beat up on the Bills offense, and Carson Palmer should have absolutely no problem moving the chains and putting up points. It would take a tragic Palmer performance to make this game even close.
- Upset of the Week: Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans. Tennessee came up with a big win last week against Detroit (although the Ebron push off call was a shitty call), but Oakland has way, way more talent. Their offense is moving the ball well, and I actually think their defense should bounce back in a sense this week. If the Titans had a better coach, I think they could be legitimately good. Yet here we are, with Mularky running a trash offense for Mariota. Play up to Mariota's strengths, run short crossers, roll him out, and get Derrick Henry the damn ball.
- Washington intrigues me this week. This is 100% a make or break week for Washington, and I truly believe if they lose in week 3, their season is over. The main reason I'm not going with them this week is Kirk. He has been so, so bad these first two weeks, I can't see how they win if he performs like he has been.

NFL Power Rankings 2016: Week 2

Well... Week 1 was interesting. Quite a few teams proved me wrong, and definitely deserve a raise in my rankings. Usually around week 4 you start to see a teams true colours, so as of now I'm going to try not to completely overreact to certain showings by teams. The top 6 are all really close for me, and I think all of them have a legitimate case for number 1. With all that being said, let's get to it!

1) Green Bay Packers
2) New England Patriots
3) Pittsburgh Steelers
4) Carolina Panthers
5) Denver Broncos
6) Seattle Seahawks
7) Houston Texans
8) Arizona Cardinals
9) Minnesota Vikings
10) Cincinnati Bengals
11) Kansas City Chiefs
12) Oakland Raiders
13) New Orleans Saints
14) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
15) Detroit Lions
16) Indianapolis Colts
17) New York Jets
18) Jacksonville Jaguars
19) New York Giants
20) Miami Dolphins
21) Baltimore Ravens
22) Dallas Cowboys
23) Atlanta Falcons
24) Chicago Bears
25) Buffalo Bills
26) Washington Redskins
27) San Diego Chargers
28) Philadelphia Eagles
29) San Fransisco 49ers
30) Los Angeles Rams
31) Tennessee Titans
32) Cleveland Browns

NFL Predictions 2016: Week 2

Week 1: 5-11

Overall: 5-11

Week 1 is a shit show. I mean I'm just bad at predicting, but week 1 is definitely a shit show too. It was chaos across the board, although it gave us some insight to a lot of teams that had questions about them. There were so many close games this week too, and spreads were missed or made by a point or two. With that being said, on to the picks for week 2!

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (NYJ -1) -> New York Jets

Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions (DET -5.5) -> Detroit Lions

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (HOU -2.5) -> Houston Texans

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (NE -6.5) -> Miami Dolphins

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (BAL -6.5) -> Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -3.5) -> Pittsburgh Steelers

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (WAS -3) -> Washington Redskins

New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants (NYG -4.5) -> New Orleans Saints

San Fransisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -13.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -6.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams (SEA -6.5) -> Los Angeles Rams

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (DEN -6) -> Indianapolis Colts

Atlanta Falcons @ Oakland Raiders (OAK -4.5) -> Oakland Raiders

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers (SD -3) -> Jacksonville Jaguars

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (GB -2) -> Minnesota Vikings

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears (CHI -3) -> Chicago Bears

A couple notes...

- Lock of the Week: Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns. I'm still not completely sold on the Ravens, although they proved me wrong in the first week, but they should handily beat the Browns even in Cleveland. McCown is now the guy in Cleveland, but they're one hit away from Cody Kessler or Kevin Hogan. Let that sink in for a second. McCown isn't the guy you want at QB to begin with, but they are really close to not winning a game this season. Baltimore shut down Tyrod Taylor in week 1, and I don't see them having any trouble with shutting down McCown. Cleveland's D should be no problem for Flacco and that offense too.

- Upset of the Week: There are so many to choose from this week. I'm going to go with the LA Rams over the Seahawks though. Now that seems crazy considering how LA played Monday night (if you didn't watch that game, lucky you). With that being said, I'm also taking into consideration how Seattle played in Week 1, and it was rough. For a team that is supposed to shut down teams at home, they were one Kenny Stills drop away from losing handily to the Miami Dolphins. Russell Wilson hurt his ankle that game too, and there's a chance he may not be 100%. Historically, Jeff Fisher and his squad brings their A game when they play the Seahawks, and I actually think they will outright beat them on Sunday.

- Some other tempting upsets were Miami over New England (although I still hate betting against Belichick), New Orleans over the Giants, San Fran against the spread vs. Carolina, Tampa Bay over Arizona, Indianapolis over Denver, Jacksonville over San Diego, and Minnesota over Green Bay (although I hate betting against Aaron Rodgers almost as much as I hate betting against Belichick). These games all feel like they're going to be way too close to have some of the spreads they do.

- I understand Denver's defense is incredible, but Andrew Luck is the QB for the Colts and Trevor Siemian is the QB for the Broncos.

- I don't trust New Orleans' defense, but their offense is so good with Brees and the Giants offense wasn't as explosive as I expected against a weaker Cowboys defense. I expect Brees to keep it to at least a field goal or potentially be able to blow out NY.

- Miami really impressed me week 1. I truly believe that Adam Gase is 100% the right coach for them and I thought Ryan Tannehill was also way better than his numbers indicated. As I've said all throughout the off-season, Seattle's offensive line is very weak, and Miami was easily able to get to Wilson on a consistent basis, but their defense still looked very good too. New England is an issue because of Belichick, and he is just way too smart even with Garappolo starting and Gronk most likely out, but I think it will be a very close game, enough to give Miami the edge under the spread.

- Tampa Bay looked fantastic week 1. They weren't perfect, but Jameis and the offense looked great and you clearly saw the playmakers they have on defense in Kwon Alexander, Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David and VHIII. I was disappointed in Arizona, and thought their game plan was too passive, but they are still a very talented team. I think Arizona will squeak out a victory, but it will be close.

- I think Jacksonville will wreck shop against San Diego. The Jags are a very good team, and were very close to beating Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in week 1. They played a very smart game too, and this defense will continue to get better along with the offense. The biggest week 1 disappointment was not only San Diego blowing such a huge lead against KC, but also Keenan Allen's injury. It was a tale of two different teams, and without Keenan Allen, San Diego seems doomed for another long season. I hope they prove me wrong because I like Phillip Rivers, but man oh man another unlucky, awful injury for the incredibly talented Allen. Rivers will have to abuse Jacksonville's linebackers in the short passing game with Danny Woodhead, but if the Jags play Myles Jack (lets hope!) then they could help minimize that issue, and apart from that the Jags win across the board. Although I can't wait to see Allen Robinson vs. Jason Verrett. Should be an awesome match-up!

- Minnesota's defense is ridiculous. I think it's the best defense in the league (sorry Denver and Seattle) and I don't think that's even that hot of a take. They have star talent and depth at every level and even with a shaky at best offense, they will compete this year. This is Bradford's first start of the year (or should be at least) and he is miles ahead of Shaun Hill in terms of talent. This should be an incredibly close game and frankly I'm torn. Green Bay should be better than they were in week 1 as Rodgers and Jordy get another week together, but I'll take the home team as the tiebreaker.

- On Thursday we're gonna see two very good defenses go off, in the Jets and Bills. Simply put, the Jets looked better in week 1, and I think they are the more talented team. I think for the Bills to win, Tyrod will have to play exceptionally, which isn't out of the question, but I still lean New York's way.

- Detroit really impressed me week 1. Andrew Luck was incredible, yet they kept on bouncing back and Stafford and that offense were outstanding. I think they should easily beat a Titans team that... er... let me just say struggled in week 1.

- Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans should be a fantastic game, but I'm going with Houston. ironically without Justin Houston, KC's defense didn't look nearly as potent as it has in recent years, and Houston looked good on all levels against a solid Chicago team.

- Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers should be another great game. I think it should come down to the wire, but in the end I don't see how Cincinnati is going to stop Antonio Brown.

- Washington should beat Dallas. Should. Dak had a solid showing vs. the Giants, but he really isn't being asked to do much. Washington's defense was torched by a good Pittsburgh offense, but they are still very talented and should be able to handle Dak. Washington's offense should also in theory put the throttle to Dallas' defense. I'll give Washington the benefit of the doubt in week 1, but if they don't pull this out though, then I'm going to be worried about them as a team.

- So Atlanta was better in week 1 then I thought they would be, but my god they need a pass rush. Badly. Oakland should be able to punish them for their lack of push at the line, and I expect Oakland to keep momentum going after an impressive, ballsy, week 1 win.

- Give me John Fox's Bears vs. a rookie QB. The Eagles looked way better than I thought they would in week 1, and their defense is good, but Chicago is a better team than people think. Jay Cutler is solid, and Alshon and Kevin White are too good to keep quiet all game.

NFL Power Rankings 2016: Week 1

Don't @ me. I might get destroyed on a few of these after week 1, but that's part of the fun. Baltimore, Atlanta and Miami could surprise, but frankly I think those teams are trying to fight going into rebuild mode when that's what they should do. The AFC past New England is rough, and I mean rough. Not to say by the end of the year there won't be a true competitor other than NE, but right now, I have no idea. Most analysts tend to love Pittsburgh, but I'm torn. Big Ben is great, as is Antonio Brown, but I still have questions about their defense, mainly their secondary and how they'll get pressure off the edge. The Packers at the top? Well sure they lost Sitton, but who's ever said they won't win a Super Bowl because of their left guard? Two years ago the Packers had the best offense in the NFL. They are returning every starter from that offense other than Sitton (and Kuhn :'(...), and they should get bounce back years from Lacy, Cobb, Adams etc. Their defense is getting to a point where it's underrated too. It was close between Green Bay and Seattle, but Seattle's offensive line (or lack there of) pushed it over the edge for me. Dallas and Minnesota should shoot up these rankings to when Romo is back and when I see Sam Bradford has learned the playbook. Their too talented to be as low as they are.

1) Green Bay Packers
2) Seattle Seahawks
3) New England Patriots
4) Arizona Cardinals
5) Carolina Panthers
6) Pittsburgh Steelers
7) Kansas City Chiefs
8) Denver Broncos
9) Cincinnati Bengals
10) Dallas Cowboys
11) Houston Texans
12) New York Giants
13) Oakland Raiders
14) New York Jets
15) Indianapolis Colts
16) Minnesota Vikings
17) Buffalo Bills
18) Washington Redskins
19) New Orleans Saints
20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
21) Chicago Bears
22) Jacksonville Jaguars
23) Detroit Lions
24) Miami Dolphins
25) Atlanta Falcons
26) Tennessee Titans
27) Baltimore Ravens
28) Philadelphia Eagles
29) Los Angeles Rams
30) San Diego Chargers
31) Cleveland Browns
32) San Fransisco 49ers

NFL Predictions 2016: Week 1

Back at it again! Way too long of an offseason, but finally football is back. The first week is usually a shit show and it's anybody's guess as to what happens, so I guess we'll find out soon!

Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos (CAR -5.5) -> Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -3) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans (MIN -2) -> Tennessee Titans

Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -4) -> Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (CIN -2.5) -> Cincinnati Bengals

Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints (NO -1) -> New Orleans Saints

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -7) -> Kansas City Chiefs

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -3) -> Buffalo Bills

Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans (HOU -6.5) -> Houston Texans

Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (GB -5.5) -> Green Bay Packers

Miami Dolphins @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -10.5) -> Seattle Seahawks

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (EVEN) -> New York Giants

Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -3.5) -> Indianapolis Colts

New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -6) -> Arizona Cardinals

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins (PIT -3) -> Pittsburgh Steelers

Los Angeles Rams @ San Fransisco 49ers (LA -2.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers

A couple notes...

- The Super Bowl rematch on Thursday loses a bit of excitement as Siemian is starting for the Broncos. He actually looked solid in the preseason, and he may surprise people, but against an incredibly stout Panthers defense, I can't see Denver coming out with the win.

- Matt Ryan's arm looked shot in the preseason. That's the main reason I'm going Tampa here, until I see Ryan hasn't lost a step, or at least looks adequate, I'm not gonna go with Atlanta.

- Speaking of QB's I need to see first, Minnesota has one hell of a team but man oh man week 1, it's either Shaun Hill, or Sam Bradford who may not know enough of the playbook to actually be able to play. Minnesota with Bridgewater was a Super Bowl contender, and Bradford may still be good enough to make them threats, but this early in the season, I'm gonna go with the team with a better QB. Also I'm a fan of the direction Tennessee is going in and what they showed this preseason with Murray and Henry.

- Cleveland and Philadelphia, eh, it's kind of a toss-up. Eagles are at home so my instinct wants to lean there, but I'm going to fall trap to the excitement of Cleveland's new offense. Also Wentz first game, and I was in the camp that he wasn't ready to start out of the gate, but once again I'm ready to be proven wrong.

- Bengals vs Jets should be a great game. Two tough defenses going at it, and two teams that should be fighting for playoff spots near the end of the year. Personally I'm not a huge fan of Andy Dalton, but he's still the better QB and that's why I'm going with the Bengals.

- Another exciting game between Oakland and New Orleans. Two high-powered offenses face off, and this is a tough one. I love the moves Oakland has done this offseason, and I think they are on the right track, and New Orleans has really struggled to be a consistent force as they once were, but New Orleans is also a team that has Drew Brees, and was once an absolute force at home. It's close, but home field advantage pushes it New Orleans way for me.

- KC should blow out San Diego. I love me some Phillip Rivers/Keenan Allen combo, but KC's defense is strong, and their offense should be consistent too.

- I believe in Tyrod Taylor being Buffalo's franchise QB, and frankly I think he's the better quarterback in this game against his former team the Ravens too. Baltimore's roster is old and has a lot of guys coming back from injury, so I don't know what to expect this season from them. Give me Buffalo here.

- The Texans are... Well... They are good. At least they should be if Brock Lobster is adequate. A stout defense and a run game with Nuk too is a good sign for Texans fans. I think Chicago is on the upswing too, and they made a lot of underrated signings like Freeman, Hicks and Trevathan, but I have absolutely no idea how Chicago is going to attempt to stop DeAndre Hopkins and Houston is at home too.

- I'm completely on board with the new look Jags, yet this is a team that has struggled mightily in September, losing by an average of 17.3 points over the past 3 years. Their offense is strong, Bortles, Robinson and Hurns are a terrific combo but they are going up against one of the most complete teams this year, and the best QB in the league. I wouldn't be shocked if the Jags take this game, but everything would have to go right, and the questions about their pass rush don't help their cause against an offense that thrives with time. Oh, Jordy's back too.

- Seattle's offensive line is awful. They also lost Marshawn Lynch. They should destroy the Dolphins. I'm not too high on Seattle this year, but their defense is too good to believe that Miami can take them IN Seattle.

- If Romo was healthy I'm taking Dallas all day long, but Dak's a go for week 1, and it makes things way more interesting. I loved what I saw from Prescott in the preseason, but he's still a rookie QB in his first regular season game ever. When he played with Dez in the preseason he went there often, and I expect to see a lot of Elliott too, but the Giants offense is a good one. OBJ, Shepard and Cruz (if healthy) should be able to handle the Cowboys D with ease.

- The Colts and Lions are both very weird teams. They both have good talent across the board, but have clear holes too. I think the Colts and their offense are in for a good bounce back year, so I'll take them for week 1 at least.

- If Brady was playing I'd take the Patriots but he's not so I'm taking the Cardinals. Simple as that. Although I want to see Carson Palmer back at his best because this preseason and last years postseason was rough.

- Anotnio Brown vs. Josh Norman week 1, yes please. I think Brown is gonna get his fair share of wins against Norman, and I like Pittsburgh as a whole better than Washington even on the road.

- First game the LA Rams are playing in a long time, and I'm taking the 49ers against the spread? I know, I suck. Oh well, it's Case Keenum vs. Blaine Gabbert, this is probably the worst game of the week. Give me the home team.