EndZoneNerds: September 2015

Last week was much better as we left with a 7-9 record, but there is still a lot to be desired. I hit a huge upset in the Jacksonville Jaguars/Miami Dolphins game, and my lock of the week stood strong as the Packers overcame the Seahawks. My notes and outlook for the week were much better than my record shows, but we can hopefully build off of that to a winning record for this week.
Last Week: 7-9
Total: 11-21

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (NYG -3.5) -> New York Giants
Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams (PIT -1.5) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
San Diego Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -2.5) -> Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans (HOU -6.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets (NYJ -2) -> Philadelphia Eagles
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-6.5) -> New Orleans Saints
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots (-13.5) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -2.5) -> Baltimore Ravens
Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns (CLE -3.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (IND -3) -> Indianapolis Colts
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys (ATL -1.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -6.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -14.5) -> Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -3) -> Buffalo Bills
Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions (DEN -3) -> Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers (GB -6.5) -> Green Bay Packers

A couple notes...
- I have Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and the Saints all covering the spread, but I still have all three of these teams losing.
- Lock of the Week: Seattle Seahawks. The spread they have is absolutely ridiculous, and even though I think it's more likely the Cardinals or Atlanta Falcons hit their spread, this matchup is just too perfect. The Seahawks have their home opener, with Kam Chancellor back, against the Chicago Bears, arguably one of the worst teams in the NFL. This game would be a disappointment for Seattle if it isn't a blowout.
- Upset of the Week: Philadelphia Eagles. I am going down with this ship. I still believe Chip Kelly is a good coach, and I like what he did this offseason. The Jets are a really tough team and this is more of a gut call than anything, but the Eagles should step up this week, and I predict a big impact from their running game, even against this incredible Jets defensive line.
- Another Packers game at home, should be a solid bet, but Kansas City is a good team, and they have a very good defense.
- Bills vs. Dolphins should be a great game this week, but Buffalo has been flat out outplaying Miami so far this season, and I think Buffalo comes away 2-1 from this.
- Cleveland vs. Oakland is an interesting game, mainly because McCown is playing. I have not been shy about my feelings toward McCown, and I think this will be the game where he officially loses his job to Manziel, as I think Oakland will beat up on Cleveland.
- Another great game should be Cincinnati @ Baltimore. The Ravens are 0-2, the Bengals are 2-0, out of pure desperation I have the Ravens winning this game.

How about some quarterback power rankings right before the season starts! There's no way this could go badly...

http://bhamsportspub.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/draft_kit_QB_090514_WIDE.jpg

Tier 1 – The best of the bunch. These players will make their respective teams Super Bowl contenders year in and year out. They raise the level of play of their teammates, and cause havoc to opposing defenses on a weekly basis.

1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Who else but Rodgers? I'm not trying to make some controversial choice for the best quarterback in football; I'm trying to make the right one. I don't care what stats or metrics you use to measure the best QB, but Rodgers is just that, the best QB. He played on one leg all throughout the playoffs and still would have made it to the Super Bowl if the Packers stopped a 2-point conversion or recovered an onside kick by Seattle. He has the best arm in the league (strength and accuracy), he is very mobile and athletic, he is one of the smartest QB's in the league and he has one hell of a hard count too. He makes plays that no other QB in history could make, and he is a no brainer choice for the best QB in the league.

2. Tom Brady, New England Patriots

After Aaron Rodgers at number 1, I have 4 players ranked pretty close, but the reigning Super Bowl MVP edges out the rest of them. I don't care about DeflateGate or any of the crazy drama of the 2015 offseason; Brady is still one of the best QB’s in the NFL. His deep ball is below league average, but he hasn’t relied on that in since the Randy Moss days and he wins through short-intermediate passes up the seams to Gronk, or at the sidelines. The past few years he really hasn’t had much offensively to work with other than Gronk, yet he raises the level of play of his teammates, and finds ways to pick apart opposing defenses with Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick.

3. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

This was actually a tough ranking. Big Ben had an unbelievable year last season. Statistically, it was better then one of the guys I ranked ahead of him (Mr. Brady), yet there should be a bit of an asterisk when comparing stats with Brady. Ben has arguably the best running back and wide receiver in the NFL with Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, and he also has a surprisingly good O-line with a big contribution from rookie Martavis Bryant too. But this is about Roethlisberger not his teammates. Ben is an elite QB, and should be treated as one by opposing defensive coordinators.

4. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

The young buck is ready to run with the bulls now. I don’t even know if that’s an actual saying, but my point is Andrew Luck is a top tier QB today. Throughout his first 3 years, the most highly touted QB prospect since Peyton Manning has gone through his lumps, yet he has shown so much promise that everyone knew he would eventually become the face of the NFL (with his fancy neck beard). Luck has had to throw the football a ton, as his defense has never been that good, yet he finds ways to score. He has the arm, the vision, the mobility, the accuracy (for the most part) and the intangibles that every single coach loves to work with. That’s not to say he doesn’t go through some struggles, as

Tier 2 – These players have the talent to win a Super Bowl and step up for their team when they need them most, but they can’t do it all by themselves. They need some help from teammates for their teams to be considered real Super Bowl threats.

5. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

Is it tough to put Manning in anything but the elite tier? Yup. Manning is still an incredible quarterback, and he will continue to pick apart defenses no matter how much his arm lacks in strength. Manning is always the smartest player on any side of the ball, and he is a year removed from breaking both the passing yards and passing touchdowns record. What is giving me pause about putting Manning in the elite tier is that he has come down to earth from his record breaking season two year ago and even though his raw numbers can be deceiving (stat friendly offense), he has shown some regression in his play.

6. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

The always polarizing Tony Romo is fun to rank. Spoiler alert, he’s good people. Really good. Sure, Romo played behind an elite offensive line last year, with a great running back, and one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. That doesn’t mean he’s bad though. Romo stepped up and was the biggest piece in the 2014 Dallas Cowboys playoff team. He has an incredible feel in the pocket, an arm that can make all the throws and is one of the toughest players in the NFL. Romo can win the ‘Boys a Super Bowl. I’m not saying he will, but with him at the helm they have their guy, they just need a good supporting cast (cough Defense cough).

7. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

I’m not entirely sure what the Saints are trying to do with their identity change, because they still have one of the better QB’s in the NFL Brees’ collapse just like Manning’s is way overblown, as he can still sling it. Brees wasn’t as sharp as he has been in the past last year, but most NFL teams would much rather have him as their QB. He’s such a smart quarterback, with incredible pocket presence and still can make all the throws on the field.

8. Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

My personal favorite throwing motion of a quarterback comes from this man. Rivers may look like he’s shot-putting the football, but he has the best touch in the NFL. Whether it’s a fade or a bullet pass on a slant, he can get it where it needs to be. Rivers was an MVP candidate for the first half of last season, and even though he slowed down in the second half quite a bit, he has the ceiling to be an MVP candidate. San Diego should be really working to lock up their franchise QB, because they can win with this man behind center.

9. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

Two Super Bowl appearances in the last two years and I have him 9^th? Well there was slight regression from 2013-2014, which was very troubling because he was on the verge of the elite tier if he built of his Super Bowl winning season. He still isn’t asked to do too much, and it definitely works for Seattle so this isn’t a shot at the team because they clearly can win with non-elite QB play, but Wilson still has to evolve in the pocket to move up into the elite tier for me. Nevertheless, he is a terrific quarterback, and should continue to grow to a point where he is firmly set in the elite tier.

10. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

This might be my most polarizing ranking, but screw it I like Cam Newton. He has gotten almost no help on offense, yet Cam somehow keeps this team competitive. His offensive line is atrocious, and he still doesn’t have any receivers that can stretch the field for him, but he is one of the hardest players to game plan for. He is one of the few people that can actually beat you with his arm and legs, and he is only getting better. Cam could eventually move into the elite tier if he begins to master the mental side of the game.

Tier 3 – Good quarterbacks, but to really be considered as playoff contenders, they need the rest of their team to step up too. They can play at a high level but don’t raise the level of play of their teammates as much as the guys ahead of them. Will help their team more then they will hurt them, but consistency can be an issue.

11. Matt Ryan

Ryan is a stat-sheet monster, and two years ago he would have been on the verge of the elite tier, but he has struggled to help keep Atlanta competitive. He’s still a very good QB, and is definitely Atlanta’s franchise quarterback, and even though he won’t wow you in any one aspect of his game, he is more than solid across the board.

12. Ryan Tannehill

The $96 million man surprised me last year. He’s really evolved in all aspects of his game, and even though he still struggles with his deep ball accuracy, he is learning to pick apart defenses with short accurate throws. Tannehill also is extremely athletic (former WR at Texas A&M) and can use his legs to keep opposing defenses on their toes. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tannehill moved into the top 10 at QB this coming season.

13. Matthew Stafford

Stafford to me is an enigma. He is one of the most talented QB’s in the league, yet his poor mechanics and decision-making keep him from being elite. He has arguably the strongest arm in all of football, and his accuracy has been surprisingly good these past few years. Stafford does a good job at getting his playmakers (Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate) the ball, yet this season I want to see if Stafford can raise the level of play of the rest of his teammates and cut down on the atrocious decisions.

14. Teddy Bridgewater

The funniest part of the 2014 NFL draft was when Teddy Bridgewater slipped to the end of the 1^st round. Just to clarify, I don’t mean it’s funny that he fell, I mean that it’s funny so many QB teams passed on such a talented young QB, and someone who could end up being a perennial Pro Bowl player for years to come. Bridgewater doesn’t have elite arm strength, but what he does have is excellent decision-making, and terrific accuracy. As he continues to develop his game, he should be a premier starting NFL quarterback.

15. Carson Palmer

Palmer has had a strange career. Drafted 1^st overall by Cincinnati, he became one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in his second season. Then his unfortunate violent knee injury seemingly derailed his career. Yet here he is, once again a very good NFL QB (not necessarily elite, but still good). Palmer has one hell of an arm; the only thing really holding him back is his inconsistent decision-making.

16. Eli Manning

Eli should really send Odell Beckham Jr. and Ben McAdoo each a nice gift basket because they are going to help make him a very rich man (even more so then he already is). Eli put forth a very nice bounce back season partially due to the fact he had one of the best receivers in the league now catching passes for him and a new, much more efficient offensive strategy in place. He still has his struggles and he can be very inconsistent, but Eli shows flashes of that same Super Bowl winning quarterback.

17. Joe Flacco

Joe Flacco struggled at times this past year, but he also wasn’t asked to do much more then stretch the field, and manage an efficient offense. He is lucky to play behind an elite offensive line, but Flacco takes advantage of that and knows how to play to the best of his abilities. He has a low ceiling but a high floor, just a solid QB.

18. Alex Smith

Alex Smith fits this tiers description, but consistency isn’t his issue. There aren’t many questions about Smith going into the season he just is an average quarterback at best. He’s a game manager and that’s about it. He’s very reliant on the talent around him, as he’ll play up or down to that level.

Tier 4 – There are a lot of questions here. Whether it’s health or consistency, most of these players are in prove it years.

19. Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles

Bradford could (and should) skyrocket up these rankings. He needs to stay healthy, but he is in a great situation with Chip Kelly, a good offensive line, and what should be a great run game. He showed in preseason that he still has the tools that made him the top pick years ago, and I expect him to shoot up these rankings. At the same time, there isn’t enough of a sample size of him being a successful NFL quarterback.

20. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals

I’m not a big fan of Andy Dalton whatsoever. Frankly I questioned putting him this high, but he has his moments. He’s surrounded with great talent with the Bengals, yet is very inconsistent. This is a put up or shut up year for the Bengals, and I don’t know if he’s up for the tall task ahead of him.

21. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears

The Bears are in for a long season, but Jay Cutler isn’t as bad as most people seem to think. Before last season there were some people picking him as a dark horse MVP candidate. Now I think he is far away from that level, but he’s a passable QB that can put up some big numbers. Bears definitely need to find their QB for the future because Cutler isn’t it, but it could be worse for them too.

22. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers

I’m curious as to what Kaep we will get in 2015. My guess is not the Super Bowl appearance one. Kaep struggled last year, and I don’t know if Jim Tomsula will be the guy to get the most out of him in 2015. San Fransisco is also in for a long year.

23. Nick Foles, St. Louis Rams

Foles is not the 27 touchdown 2 interception quarterback that he was with the Eagles a couple years back. He’s not even close to that (granted nobody really is except for Aaron Rodgers). Yet I’m actually a fan of the situation he’s in in St. Louis. For the most part, what he’s going to do is stretch the field for them to open up what should be a run first-run often offense. If he can successfully stretch the field, then St. Louis will be able to win some games this year. He still folds under pressure from opposing defenses though and he needs to improve to be thought of as even a league average quarterback.

Tier 5 – These are the young guns. This tier is very fluid, as these players could move up much higher as soon as this season, yet as of now they haven’t shown enough to truly threaten NFL defenses.

24. Geno Smith, New York Jets

I’m putting Geno Smith here over Fitzpatrick even though Fitz is starting the season because Geno should be the guy when he’s back. I don’t know what the issues are in the Jets locker room, but when Geno is on the field he can be very inconsistent, but he can also look like a star. The last month of last season Geno Smith was terrific and he should look to build off that momentum this season. He’s still young enough to become a very good QB, but the jury is out on him at this point so he has to prove people wrong.

25. Jameis Winston

Will Winston take the league by storm like RGIII or Andrew Luck did in their rookie seasons? I doubt it. That also doesn’t mean I don’t think he’s going to be a star either. Jameis will move up these rankings at some point in the future, whether that’s the first month of the season, or next year. He’s a very talented young quarterback with a great arm and a terrific head for the game and soon enough he should be at least a second tier QB.

26. Marcus Mariota

I actually think Mariota will put up better numbers than Jameis earlier on, but it’s a little bit of Alex Smith syndrome. He won’t be asked to do much, at least early on, with the Titans, but Mariota should move up these rankings as well. He’s a talented quarterback that will play on the safer side but also limit interceptions. I do think that the Titans found their franchise quarterback.

27. Derek Carr

Depending on whom you talk to, Carr either had a spectacular rookie season or a train wreck of a rookie season. I lean more towards the former, as I was impressed with the poise of the former 2^nd round draft pick. Derek Carr had arguably the worst weapons in the NFL last season, and even though the offense asked very little of him, he still shined at times. Don’t get me wrong, he has to improve his game a lot but it was a great start, and Oakland fans should be very happy with their young quarterback.

28. Blake Bortles

I am very excited for Blake Bortles in 2015. He looked great in the preseason, and seemingly is starting to put his tools together. His mechanics seemed greatly improved, and he was getting through his reads while also handling pressure from opposing defenses well. Granted, last year was really rough at times, and he needs to stick with these changes he’s made this offseason. I’m a fan of his, and hope to see him shoot up these rankings one day.

Tier 6 – You know what you have in these players, and it’s not good. These teams will not be able to win while starting these quarterbacks unless a miracle happens. A team with a QB in this tier should be actively looking to replace them.

29. Kirk Cousins

RGIII would have been ranked higher. It seems as if Washington really likes to stand in their own way. I don’t think RGIII would have had a very successful season with Washington, and a split between the two is definitely for the best, but this is Kirk Cousins we’re talking about. He’s the younger Josh McCown and that’s not a compliment to him. It’s going to be a long year in Washington.

30. Josh McCown

Oh boy. I am not a fan of Josh McCown as a starting NFL quarterback. I think he is a good backup, but you definitely don’t want him as your starter. He is not the same player he was for half a season with Chicago a couple years ago, and NFL teams seem blind to this fact. I’m very excited for the new and improved Johnny Manziel to start at some point this season though (which he will).

31. Brian Hoyer

This guy eventually lost his job to the 2014 version of Johnny Manziel. So basically what I’m saying is he’s not an ideal starting quarterback for an NFL team. On the bright side, next year’s QB class should be good though.

32. Tyrod Taylor

Tyrod Taylor intrigues me. I think he could be solid because he fits into what the Bills want to do on offense. Unfortunately he also has a very low floor and could get lit up by opposing defenses. So pick your poison Buffalo, pick your poison.

Thursday 24 September 2015

NFL Predictions: Week 3

Thursday 17 September 2015

NFL Predictions: Week 2

Wednesday 9 September 2015

NFL Predictions: Week 1

NFL Quarterback Rankings 2015