NFL Predictions 2016: Week 7

Last Week: 7-6-2
Overall: 40-50-2

Two pushes is kinda crazy from last week. Football is staying weird though. The Packers are seemingly broken, Seattle had there magic working for them once again, although I stand by it, I think the Falcons are for real (offense anyways). On top of that Cincinnati is sucking, the Jets are done, Carolina seems done too, Dallas is going to have a QB controversy soon (and not a bad one either), Arizona might be back, and Buffalo might be the scariest team in the NFL not named the Patriots right now. What. The. Hell.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (GB -7.5) -> Green Bay Packers
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams (London) (NYG -3) -> New York Giants
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles (MIN -2.5) -> Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -6.5) -> New Orleans Saints
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions (DET -1.5) -> Washington Redskins
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -10) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (BUF -3) -> Buffalo Bills
Oakland Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX -1) -> Oakland Raiders
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -2.5) -> Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets (NYJ -1) -> Baltimore Ravens
San Diego Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -6.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Fransisco 49ers (TB -2) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers (NE -7) -> New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -2) -> Arizona Cardinals
Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos (DEN -7.5) -> Denver Broncos

A couple notes...
- Lock of the Week: I want to start off with this because there are a couple games that I would consider locks this week. I expect New England and Denver to both not only cover, but blow the other teams out of the water. On paper they both seem like very, very easy multi-score wins for these respective teams. New England's one is easy, Pittsburgh is missing Big Ben, and Landry Freaking Jones is their starter. They have a weak defense and Gronk/Brady is just hitting its stride. Denver on the other hand is struggling offensively, but I genuinely expect their defense to outscore Houston's offense. Brock has been awful to start the year, almost as bad as Fitzpatrick, and he is going up against not only one of the best defenses in the league, but also a defense that knows his tendencies. This should be another UGLY Monday Night Football game.
- Upset of the Week: I was surprised at this line too. I don't know how the Jets are favoured. I think Geno will be better than what Fitz has done, but still, that's just saying I don't expect him to throw 6 interceptions. The Ravens are solid, not great, but solid. They are well coached though, and that's more than enough to stomp the Jets in Geno's first start of the year.
- The Packers have looked awful, and are routed by injury, but they are facing the Bears on a  Thursday. The only near certainty is this game is going to be really ugly. They should win, but I don't feel good about the cover.
- Why are Minnesota's lines so damn close? They are better than Philly, and they should win. In Philly. Handily. Mike Zimmer and that defense is a lot to handle for any QB, let alone a rookie (although he has played much, much better than I expected). I'm riding the Vikings hot streak until I see something in them that tells me I shouldn't (I doubt it will be soon).
- The Saints and Chargers are two teams that just seem to stick around in every game. I wanted to pick the Chargers to cover the spread, but I don't know if they have a stout enough defense to contain Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. I wouldn't be surprised if it's close, but Atlanta is going to come out hot after last week.
- Two of my favourite young teams to watch are facing off against each other this week. Indianapolis and Tennessee... I'm kidding, the Raiders and Jags play, and even though both of these teams have been shaky at times this year, I love watching guys like Amari Cooper, Derek Carr, Khalil Mack, Jalen Ramsey, Allen Robinson and Yannick Ngakoue (yes I did google his name to make sure I spelled it correctly). I think Oakland is further along in its development as a team, but the game should be entertaining at the very least. Although it could be a train wreck too, both teams have had their goose eggs this year.
- I'm staying away from the Colts and Titans. Usually when I think it's close, the coaching sways me, but the Chuck Pagano/Mike Mularkey combo just isn't doing it for me. I like betting on the Colts because I love Luck, but time and time again I just see how terrible the rest of his team is (exempt from this is T.Y. Hilton, he's a badass). The Titans have shown flashes recently, and they are the more talented roster, minus QB, but again, Mularkey. I'll just pick them because they're the home team. I don't like it though.
- BOLD PREDICTION: Just a thought, I think the Rams are losing this one, and I think Goff is going to be their week 9 starter. They have a bye in week 8, and it would be the perfect time to make the change. I recognize Keenum had the best game of his career last week against Detroit, but Detroit's defense has been injury riddled and just awful, and Keenum threw a game clinching interception on the last drive to halt any attempt at a comeback. I don't know how likely this is, it is Jeff Fisher we're talking about, but if they have any intention of Goff starting this year it has to be done after this game. We'll see though, it's a very bold prediction and hinges on many factors, but if I was Los Angeles and Goff has shown me enough to assume he'd be okay, then I'm going Goff.

NFL Predictions 2016: Week 6

Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 33-44

Decent week with 2 spreads missed by half a point, so I'll take it. To paraphrase Belichick, on to week 6.

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (DEN -3) -> Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots (NE -9) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants (NYG -3) -> New York Giants
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (CAR -3) -> New Orleans Saints
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins (PIT -7.5) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears (CHI -2.5) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
San Fransisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -9) -> Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions (DET -3) -> Detroit Lions
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -7) -> Tennessee Titans
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (PHI -2.5) -> Washington Redskins
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (KC -1.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -6) -> Atlanta Falcons
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (GB -4) -> Green Bay Packers
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (HOU -3) -> Houston Texans
New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -8) -> Arizona Cardinals

A couple notes...
- I hate betting on San Diego games because of Phillip Rivers. He's the only reason they are competitive (although Joey Bosa is awesome) and it could be close on Thursday. Denver is still the way better team though, and Siemian is back too.
- Pats should win, but 9 points is a ton versus a talented Bengals squad.
- Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins. It seems too easy for me to go lock of the week as any team facing the Browns, so I'll go the Steelers. Their offense has seemed unstoppable since Le'Veon Bell has come back, and Miami does not have the cornerback talent to even hinder Antonio Brown. Give me Pittsburgh all day long.
- Upset of the Week: Kansas City @ Oakland Raiders. Oakland at home against a team that has really struggled to get any pressure on opposing QB's. Should be a close game, but Oakland has too much talent on offense. Derek Carr would need to have a really poor game for Oakland to lose.
- Seattle vs. Atlanta is going to be an awesome game. I'm buying into Atlanta after last week, Matt Ryan has been great and they pulled out a massive win against Denver. Seattle has come on strong, but still need to work on their consistency on offense. Although Jimmy Graham looking like Jimmy Graham is a huge help.
- Another huge game is Dallas @ Green Bay. Dom Capers has done wonders against rookie QB's, but Dak is on another level right now. Dallas worked over Cincinnati last week, but Green Bay is still the better team, even with their offensive struggles. Also, underrated storyline is Green Bay's stout run defense vs. Ezekiel Elliott. Should be a lot of fun, but Green Bay at home is tough to bet against.

NFL Predictions 2016: Week 5

Last Week: 7-8
Overall: 25-38

Atlanta is good, Denver is great, Arizona might be screwed, Carolina is in trouble, Buffalo isn't out of it, Le'Veon Bell makes a huge difference, LA is better than expected but still not great, New Orleans and San Diego are just crazy and Tom Brady is now back. Week 4 was ridiculous just like every other week so far, but injuries are starting to pile up and teams are soon going to reach do or die mode.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Fransisco 49ers (ARI -3.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers
Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -7) -> Minnesota Vikings
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -3.5) -> Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns (NE -10.5) -> New England Patriots
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -7) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -4) -> Washington Redskins
Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions (PHI -3.5) -> Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Bears @ Indianpolis Colts (IND -4.5) -> Indianapolis Colts
Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos (DEN -5.5) -> Denver Broncos
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams (LA -2.5) -> Buffalo Bills
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (OAK -3.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys (CIN -1) -> Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers (GB -7.5) -> Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -7) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A couple notes...
- Lock of the Week: San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders. With Verrett out, and pretty much everybody else on San Diego but Phillip Rivers out too, Oakland has a decent chance to blow this game out. Rivers is incredible, and he's the only reason it could be close, but Oakland's defense is starting to perform better, and their offense should have another stellar week.
- Upset of the Week: Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is at home, and their offense is starting to roll. Dak has been great and Elliott leads the league in rushing. Cincinnati is a great team, but Dallas' O-line should be able to give Dak just enough time against a great interior rush to pull out a win here.
- I don't know how to predict Arizona and Carolina. With Carson Palmer out and Cam Newton most likely out too, these are two good teams that have performed poorly all year, but they are going up against two weaker teams as well. Derek Anderson can be solid so I could see Carolina winning, but man Drew Stanton is just not good. Even against San Fran and with a much more talented roster, Stanton could just throw the game away and I wouldn't be surprised.
- Denver vs Atlanta should be incredible. I think Matt Ryan's hot start is stymied a bit with this Denver D. Brandon Marshall, Todd Davis, Sylvester Williams and T.J. Ward are going to be really important to slow down Devonta Freeman, so they can force Matt Ryan to throw and try and get him to make mistakes.
- I could see Odell go for 200+ yards against Green Bay, but I still can't see New York stopping Green Bay's offense. Eli should be under pressure a lot of the game. Nick Perry and if Clay Matthews is back should both absolutely eat up NY's OT's. They should chip with TE's and RB's a lot to give OBJ, Cruz and Sheppard more time.
- I think this is a big game for Philly. Detroit hasn't been great this year, but they are on the road and I want to see what their offense can do after a bye week. Their defense should DESTROY Detroit's offense though. Jim Schwartz return game narrative.