The Patriot Way

This article is not about deflategate. Assuming Tom Brady's suspension holds, even though I doubt it will, he will miss a quarter of the season. If they go 0-4 (not saying they will just hypothetically) then that might be to much to come back from. So obviously losing Tom Brady hurts, but how does the team look with Garoppolo and how much of a downgrade is he from Brady?

The Patriots aren't in a horrible position right now contrary to what certain media members are implying. They have all offseason to prepare Jimmy Garoppolo to be Tom Brady's short-term replacement, and in limited time last year in the preseason and in relief of Brady for a handful of games he looked like a solid QB. It's a small sample size to analyze, but Bill Belichick is a smart coach, and Josh McDaniels is a terrific offensive coordinator, so they will put him in a situation to succeed. With that being said, Tom Brady has raised the level of play of every player around him for the past decade and a half, but Jimmy isn't Tom. So even though fans should be cautiously optimistic, there still should be the obvious expectation that the offense will drop off in some capacity. The exact drop off of talent from Brady to Garopollo is unknown at this point, but what can be analyzed is what should be expected in the first four games for the Patriots.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots: Thursday, September 10th, 2015
This will be the Patriots first test, but at least they have it at home. Facing Ben Roethlisberger is never an easy task, especially to open a season up. Luckily for the Patriots, the Steelers will be without their star running back Le'Veon Bell. The Steelers should be a good team this year, but this is a winnable game. The Steelers defense is still not back to an elite level, and even though they added some young talent in the draft, this is one of the better teams for Garoppolo and the Pats to launch their season with. Offensively, Pittsburgh will be a huge challenge. The loss of Darelle Revis will be tested early and often, as the Steelers have one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in Antonio Brown, and very few cornerbacks have the speed to keep up with him. I think this game ends up being close, as both of these historic franchises will come out swinging, but I predict the Patriots to come away with the win at home 27-23. (Yes I know it's way to early to predict scores, so complain if you will, but everybody else is doing their hot takes so I don't want to feel left out.)

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills: Sunday, September 20th, 2015
Wow so they have ten days between games. Just realized that. Theoretically this will be Garoppolo's last game because Brady will most likely win his appeal and get it down to two, so they can focus on this one game for 10 days, which is terrific for the Pats. Unfortunately for them, it is against a scary Buffalo Bills defense. The Bills are going to bring the heat in this game, especially under new head coach Rex Ryan who for some reason always plays the Patriots really hard. I think this will be a tough game for New England to win, and I actually have the Bills winning this in a tight game 17-16.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots: Sunday, September 27th, 2015
Like I said before, I am completely expecting Tom's suspension to be reduced to 2 games, but at this point it is 4 so let's look at the Jags game. The Jaguars are a young up and coming team (I go in depth on them in an offseason outlook article if you're interested) but on paper they still are no match for the Patriots even without Brady. Expect Gronk to have a big game here and for Bill Belichick to be too much to handle for the Jaguars. I'm giving the Pats a 27-17 win.

New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys: Sunday October 11th, 2015
The Patriots have a bye in week 4, so they face the Cowboys in week 5 which will be Brady's last game not playing if his suspension stands. On paper, this isn't a bad matchup. Dez Bryant will be a lot to handle for the Patriots, but apart from Dez, this is a pretty good game to not have Tom for. The Cowboys defense is slowly starting to take shape, but even though they have been drafting to fill needs on defense recently, they shouldn't strike fear in any team's hearts just yet. This is another great matchup for Gronkowski, as Dallas on paper at this point in the offseason has no linebacker, safety, or cornerback that can guard him. Garoppolo shouldn't be under too much pressure this game. Dallas has some good young defensive ends, but up the middle they are very thin. Dallas was not a good passing defense last year either, so expect Josh McDaniels to draw up some plays to attack them through the air from the get go. I expect Dallas to put up some points, but the Patriots will still be too much for them to handle as they win 24-23 in a close game.

If the Patriots can pull a 3-1 start to the season without Brady, then look out rest of the NFL. Bill Belichick has been lucky enough to have an elite QB for most of his coaching career, but that doesn't mean he can't win without one (*cough* Matt Cassel *Cough*). So even though part of me wants to predict wins for the Steelers and Cowboys over a Brady-less Patriots team, Belichick is too smart to not have something dangerous up his sleeve, and it should be expected from the rest of the NFL too.