Tuesday 26 May 2015

Offseason Outlook 2015: Atlanta Falcons

My bold prediction is that the Atlanta Falcons will win the NFC South. If you want to read the article and argue with me, awesome! If you want to just read my prediction and argue with me, less awesome, but I'm still up for it! Here we go...

Offense

Is Matt Ryan elite? Elite is so subjective, but what's not subjective is that Matt Ryan is a very good quarterback. He has lifted the play of his entire offense for the better part of a decade and has overcome struggles along the O-line and in the run game too. Matt Ryan is terrific under pressure, he gets the ball out quick to minimize his offensive line struggles and he has enough arm strength to make every throw on the field. He is a great quarterback to build around, and even though he's not in the Aaron Rodgers/Tom Brady tier of QB's, he's well entrenched in that second tier. At wide receiver, Julio Jones leads a group in need of some new life. Jones is terrific, and if he stays healthy he could easily be the best wide receiver in the NFL next season. He has all the tools you want in a WR, he has speed, strength off the line, route running ability, explosiveness and he is a terror with the ball in his hands. Opposite him, Roddy White returns for his 10th season, and he is still a reliable 2nd receiver to Julio. He doesn't have the same explosiveness as he used to, but he should be in for another solid season. The Falcons made a very underrated pick in this years draft in 4th rounder Justin Hardy. He should step in immediately and be a huge upgrade for Atlanta in the slot. They should also be running a lot of 3 and 4 wide receiver sets too, because they don't have a lot of talent and depth at tight end. I think Hardy is in for a big year, and he'll help this offense a lot by giving them another reliable option other than Julio and Roddy. The Falcons also have Devin Hester and Leonard Hankerson as depth, but neither receiver should be expected to have much of an impact. At tight end, Atlanta has had trouble replacing Tony Gonzalez since he retired. Levine Toilolo is still the starter, but he had a rough 2014 and isn't that promising of a player anyways. In the backfield, Atlanta is going to roll with two young backs for the 2015 season in Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Both of these backs have talent, and they could be a good one-two punch with the assumption being that they will split reps. Neither of these backs are heavy hitters, but they are both very fast and can be solid receivers out of the backfield for Ryan. Atlanta has done a lot of retooling across the offensive line over the past couple of seasons. It starts at left tackle where Jake Matthews looks to improve off of a horrid rookie season. I'm a big fan of his, and I think he could be a great LT, but there are a lot of things he has to fix from his inaugural season. At left guard, the Falcons have some decisions to make because they didn't resign Justin Blalock and don't have an obvious choice to take over the position. Sam Baker will be back this year, and he should probably play right tackle, which would then move Ryan Schraeder inside. That would be best case scenario for their O-line, with Jon Asomoah playing right guard and Joe Hawley playing center. This is the best offensive line they can put on the field, yet it still isn't terrific. This is the weak point of their offense, but if Matthews play improves (which I think it will) then it should be passable. This offense was 12th in the NFL in 2014, and I think it will crack the top 10 in 2015. The addition of Kyle Shanahan as the offensive coordinator is huge, and he should bring about better play in a lot of their offensive players. He also has a knack for getting the most out of a team's run game, so expect Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman to put together big seasons too. Matt Ryan hasn't worked with a lot of talent in the past couple years (despite Julio, Roddy has been solid but he's out of his prime now), but this roster has been infused with a lot of young players with high ceilings, and what should figure to be an improved O-line. This is a good offense. Period.

Defense

Dan Quinn. I believe in Dan Quinn, and I will fall on board that ship if it gets to that point. I think he is going to bring out the best in Atlanta's defense, and also turn Desmond Trufant into a superstar (although he already is really awesome). Trufant leads a so-so secondary, but he is a terrific corner. He has the ability to shut down an opposing wide receiver, and he very rarely gets burned too. Opposite him, I believe that rookie Jalen Collins will win the job, and he will be an immediate upgrade at right CB. Collins has size, strength and speed. The triple threat at cornerback. He needs to hone is technique, but he could be the best cornerback from the 2015 draft class. Robert Alford should move inside, and I think he could flourish in a slot cornerback role. At safety, the Falcons have Dezmen Southward and William Moore. With more development from the young Southward, I think both of those players should be solid safeties. At linebacker, this team invested in Vic Beasley and that should pay off in a huge way. Beasley is in a terrific position with the Falcons, he will get immediate playing time, and he has the speed, power and explosiveness to be an impact pass rusher for a team that desperately needs one. They also signed Brooks Reed to help raise their talent level at linebacker. To go along with Brooks, they signed O'Brien Schofield who could be a solid situational pass rusher and he adds depth to the edge group. One more quiet free agent signing they made was signing Adrian Clayborn. He is coming off of an injury riddled 2014, but if he's healthy he can be a solid pass rusher. In the middle, they have Paul Worrilow, Justin Durant and Prince Shembo. They should get decent production out of these players. All of them have their strengths and weaknesses, but if you limit Worrilow in the passing game, and ease Shembo into a bigger role, they could be successful. On the defensive line, the Falcons have surprisingly a lot of depth. They made a couple free agent moves last offseason, and they still have Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai on the line. Both of those players had rough first seasons with the Falcons, but they should play better in 2015 under Dan Quinn. The Falcons also have last years 2nd round pick Ra'Shede Hageman who could be looking at a starting job this season. He has a high ceiling and could be really dominant if he works on his consistency issues. Another young player to watch with Atlanta is Grady Jarrett, this years 5th round pick. I thought he was a second round talent, and the knock on him is that he's undersized but he has a lot of talent and is quick in shedding blocks. Rounding off the defensive line, Atlanta has veteran Jonathan Babineaux. He has been an anchor for roughly a decade, and should be in for another good season. This defense isn't the most talented in the NFL, but I think they could be a league average defense next season. Dan Quinn is where my faith resides, and I think that he will get more out of this defense than anybody else could. Vic Beasley will play a huge factor in whether this defense is successful or not, but I think he is up to the challenge. If the Falcons front 7 can bring more pressure, which I do believe they will, then this defense can help make Atlanta relevant again.

On paper, I can admit that this team is not as talented as the New Orleans Saints. Why do I think they will win the division then? I think it's a combination of the major philosophical change the Saints are going through on offense, but mostly because of this new coaching staff. My love for Dan Quinn is already well documented, and Kyle Shanahan is a terrific offensive coordinator and a big upgrade too. I'm expecting a Mike Zimmer/Minnesota Vikings situation, except the Falcons already have an amazing QB and a great offense to go along with a transformed defense. I think they had one of the best drafts this past season, and should get some instant playmakers out of it to go along with the established veterans, who will lead the Falcons to their first playoff berth in three years.

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