Tuesday 19 May 2015

Offseason Outlook 2015: Dallas Cowboys

Offense

This is an elite offense coming off of a terrific year. Tony Romo got his second career playoff win in what should be considered a successful season for the 'Boys. Romo had the best season of his career in 2014, and he should be looked at as an elite quarterback now. Romo is unbelievable in his pocket movement, and the offense Dallas runs suits him perfectly. The true backbone behind this offense, is the Dallas offensive line. Their O-line is almost legendary at this point, and now with the addition of La'el Collins, it can be even better. At left tackle, Dallas has arguably the best LT in the game in Tyron Smith. A couple years ago it would have been crazy to think that a left tackle could be better than Joe Thomas, but Tyron Smith has a good case that he is. At left guard, the Cowboys signed La'el Collins to take over for Ron Leary. Now Leary was still good last season, and Collins isn't the sure fire starter yet, but it seems very likely that the first round talent takes over the LG spot. Travis Frederick mans the center position, and he has developed into one of the leagues best. He still has some work to do in the pass protection department, but Frederick is an absolute mauler in the run game. At right guard the 'Boys have the much talked about Zack Martin. He was applauded for his rookie season, and rightfully so as he instantaneously was one of the best guards in football. Finally, Doug Free holds the right tackle spot, and he is coming off of a very solid year. This O-line is so good, it gave Jerry Jones the confidence to stroll out Darren McFadden and Joseph Randle as the Cowboys running backs. You read that right, Dallas is going from DeMarco Murray, to McFadden and Randle. The saddest part is that it could work because the O-line is so dominant. Even though the Cowboys are shockingly thin at running back, they have a lot of weapons in the passing game for Romo. The biggest name is Dez Bryant, and rightfully so. He is a terror for opposing defenses, and a top 5 wide receiver in the NFL. Dallas was smart to franchise tag him, because they can't afford to lose him in free agency to another team. Opposite Dez, Terrence Williams mans the ship as the 2nd receiver. Williams is solid, not spectacular, but as a second option with a QB like Romo, he can be more than serviceable. In the slot, the Cowboys have another solid receiver in Cole Beasley. He is a typical slot receiver, small in stature, but a solid option on third down and for short passes. Behind those three receivers, there doesn't appear to be much depth. Dallas does have a lot of talent and depth at the tight end position though. Jason Witten is still playing at a very high level, and is an excellent blocker and receiver. Apart from Rob Gronkowski, there is a legitimate case that he was the second best TE last year (especially because of the impact he had in their run game). Behind Witten, they have James Hanna and Gavin Escobar. Both of these TE's are fairly young, and showed a lot of promise at times in 2014, they just need to be more consistent. This offense did lose DeMarco Murray, and they are going to take a hit from that. They will still be a great offense though. Romo has proven that he can lift the play of those around him, and if he is healthy (he did play hurt for part of last year, which is even more amazing considering the numbers he put up) then this offense will be a top 10 offense with ease. Realistically they could be top 5 just like last year, but I'm anticipating a little bit of regression with the loss of Murray.

Defense

On defense the Cowboys are actually starting to put a seemingly dangerous team together. Jerry Jones has really invested in edge rushers this offseason. Alongside Demarcus Lawrence, the Cowboys signed Greg Hardy to a one year deal, although he will be out 10 games due to his suspension. Among those two players, Dallas also took a gamble on Randy Gregory. On the field, he was my favourite edge rusher in the entire draft, but due to character concerns he fell to the end of the second round. If Gregory and/or Hardy pay off, the 'Boys will have seriously amped up the pressure on opposing quarterbacks. An underrated loss for this Cowboys defense is Henry Melton. Although he isn't Ndamukong Suh, he was one of the better pass rushing DT's in the NFL last season, and the interior pressure he brought will be missed. His replacement will most likely be Nick Hayden, who will play alongside Tyrone Crawford on the interior D-line. Crawford is coming off of a very nice season, and he will be relied upon even more as his role should increase with Melton gone. The Cowboys have also built a solid group of starting linebackers. Rolando McClain had an incredible career resurgence last season, and was huge in stopping the run for them. They also have 2014 4th round pick Anthony Hitchens that will play the SAM beside McClain's MIKE. The biggest question mark, yet possible game changer is Sean Lee. When healthy, Sean Lee is one of the most talented linebackers in football, especially in coverage, and as of now he should be playing the WILL for them. If Lee is healthy, that gives them a difference maker in their linebacker group, and also gives them a leader on the defensive side of the ball. In the secondary, Dallas has a lot of question marks. Orlando Scandrick had a really good year in the slot, but the rest of the secondary is average at best. Brandon Carr has not lived up to the expensive deal Dallas gave him in free agency a couple years ago, and Morris Claiborne has not played up to his draft status at all. So to improve the cornerback position, the Cowboys drafted Byron Jones. He blew up the combine, and now Dallas is hoping he can have an immediate impact on their team. It would be smarter for them to initially play him at safety, as his ball skills would immediately transition there, but either way he should have a big impact on Dallas' defense. Speaking of safeties, the Cowboys have an underwhelming pair starting for them. Barry Church and J.J. Wilcox are fine, but in an ideal world Dallas could use an upgrade. This defense, on paper at least, is greatly improved. The additions at edge rusher and Sean Lee being healthy are two huge factors in this defense taking a step forward. Best case scenario in my mind, this will hover around a top 10 defense. That seems way too high with this roster, but the offense being a clock controlling O helps a lot. It was a big reason why Dallas had a top half finish in defense last year. I think a more reasonable prediction, is a middle of the pack defense, and that's what I'm betting on. It's improved, but it can't keep up with the stronger defenses in the NFC, let alone the NFL.

Dallas is a good team. Last year they showed that investing draft picks in the O-line can pay off in a huge way, and they should be extremely competitive this season too. I predict them to be fighting for the division all season with the Philadelphia Eagles, but for them to just come up short. I still think a playoff berth is very, very likely through them getting a wildcard spot. Romo is an elite quarterback, I don't care what anybody says about him being not clutch and all of that ridiculousness in the 4th quarter, he is elite. Their running game is still very nerve racking going into the season, because DeMarco Murray is an incredible running back and it's a bigger loss than people seem to realize. Yes the offensive line helped him a lot, but people can't just assume Dallas can roll anyone out at running back and they will automatically be successful. Aside from the RB situation, Dallas looks just as good as last year, if not better. Retaining Dez was huge, but the Eagles improved much more than the 'Boys did, so I can't predict them to win the division with any confidence at this point. This is still a good Dallas team though, and if they make the playoffs, then they have just as good of a chance to win it all as every other team.

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