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Thomas Davis Vs. A Broken Arm
I'll mostly be looking at specific match-ups, but I need to talk about TD first. Like most of you, I want nothing more than to see #58 play in the Super Bowl just two weeks after breaking his arm. He is one of the best guys in football, and he's also one of the most talented linebackers in the league. A few plays before his injury, he read a toss to David Johnson, shed a block, and tackled him for a huge loss. Look it up if you have time, I'm sure it won't be hard to find because it was spectacular. I don't know any other player in the league that makes that tackle, apart from maybe the guy he plays beside. He's an incredible player, and it would be a treat for any and every fan to see him play in the Super Bowl.
Luke Kuechly Vs. Peyton Manning
This is the match-up I'm most looking forward too. I know, it's not as straight forward as the other ones, Kuechly will have a big impact in the run game and Peyton won't target Luke that often. What I'm looking forward to is the pre snap reads, and the games best middle linebacker leading his defense against probably the smartest player in NFL history. LK is the leader of one of the best defenses in the NFL this season, and he's an incredible smart player too. Even though Peyton doesn't make as many pre-snap adjustments as he would in past years, he is still one of the best at finding the holes in your defense, and for Kuechly, he has to make sure that his defense limits the mistakes they make or Manning even in his current state will make them pay. Sidebar, it would be cool to see Kuechly go three straight games with a pick-6.
Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei Vs. Interior Broncos Offensive Line
Apart from Carolina's linebackers, their defensive tackles are what make this defense go. Short has been nothing short of spectacular this season, and Lotulelei has been great in his own right when healthy. Denver doesn't have the strongest offensive line, and there is a lot of potential here for KS and SL to have a field day. To counteract what I'm expecting to be a lot of interior pressure on Manning, they will have to get the run game going early or Manning will have to rely on a lot of quick throws. I'd expect some screens because avoiding the middle of the field should be a priority in the pass game.
Emmanuel Sanders Vs. Robert McClain
This is a bit of an assumption on my part, but I'm expecting Josh Norman to shadow Demaryius Thomas and McClain to mostly guard Sanders. If so, Sanders has a chance at having a big day. From what I've seen of McClain this year (granted not too much), he's been solid; but I'm of the belief that Emmanuel Sanders is actually the best Broncos receiver. He may not have the size or reputation of Thomas, but his route running and reliability, to go along with athletic ability makes him really stand out. If Peyton is going to try and attack a specific part of this Carolina defense, this is where I expect him to look. Sanders can win this battle and unless you're always double teaming him (which brings up other problems throughout the defense) then he will have his shot at a monster day. It just comes down to can Peyton get him the ball, and I think he can.
Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware Vs. Panthers Offensive Tackles
For whoever witnessed the brutality that Ware and Miller laid down against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, I don't have to go into detail about how good these two are. The Panthers O-line has been really good as a group this year, and they have studs in the middle (Norwell, Kalil and Turner), but Cam Newton has made up for a lot of insufficiencies at tackle. I was completely wrong about Oher this season, as he has more than held his own at tackle, but in pass protection, he still hasn't been the ideal LT. Miller and Ware punished a QB who is known for getting rid of the ball as quickly as possible (among other things). If Carolina doesn't give their tackles help in pass protection, whether that's with TE's or running back's chip blocking, then Cam could be in real trouble.
Broncos Front 7 Vs. Panthers Run Game
Cam Newton plays a huge role in the success of Carolina's run game. This shouldn't come as a surprise to anybody. But between Malik Jackson, Sylvester Williams, Derek Wolfe, Von Miller, Brandon Marshall, Danny Trevathan and DeMarcus Ware, the Broncos have the athletic ability to contain Newton and Stewart. I don't have a ton of analysis on this specific battle, because these are just two terrific groups of players that execute extremely well. The fallout of this battle in the trenches will be huge though. If Carolina can get their run game going early, then their entire offense will open up, and it will allow Mike Shula (Panthers offensive coordinator) to open up the playbook and start to get really creative so he can stifle Denver's defense. On the other side of the spectrum, if Denver shuts down their run game, I can easily see Cam and the offense start to pinch and try and force plays, and when you're facing the best defense in the league you can't force anything or they will make you pay. Whoever wins this battle should have a big advantage in the Super Bowl, and it could be the key to winning.
Peyton Manning Vs. Turnovers
All I can think of is the Seattle Super Bowl a couple years ago. Manning was facing off against a young, hungry defense, and he got killed in the turnover battle. Seattle led the league in takeaways that season, and Carolina leads the league in takeaways this season. The Panthers embarrassed the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Championship game, and it was mostly due to the fact that Arizona couldn't stop themselves from turning the ball over. With that being said, the current Broncos offense has Peyton playing a very safe game. He is making some throws, but they are to the outside in single coverage for the most part, and when he misses he is missing high so the cornerback doesn't have a chance at it. If Peyton is going to miss, that's where you want him to miss. If we get the Peyton Manning of early season, then it's already game over. But if we get the Manning who has played surprisingly well over the past couple weeks, the one who is limiting his mistakes and running a meticulous, take what they give you offense, then this is going to be one hell of a game.
Prediction
I went 2-0 last week, and am now 5-5 in the playoffs. So this is the tie breaker. The spread as of now is CAR -6. This is a really, really tough line. Carolina seems like the easy bet, but Denver has only lost one game by more than 7 points this season, and that was the game against Kansas City where Peyton Manning imploded. As of now, I'm predicting a really close game no matter who ends up on top, so I'll go Denver. If any quarterback can learn from his mistakes, it's Peyton Manning, and I don't see a repeat of Super Bowl 48 happening again. Although if I'm being forced to pick a winner straight up, then I'll go with Carolina.
My Pick: Denver +6
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