AFC North Breakout Candidates 2015

Cincinnati Bengals

Jeremy Hill, RB: Hill had a great rookie season. He's going to establish himself as a top 5 running back next season. Hill showed every single trait of a top running back last season, and even was a very good blocker too, but he will be in a "timeshare" with Gio Bernard for the foreseeable future. I'm quoting "timeshare" because even though Gio Bernard is very good too, they will have a tough time justifying taking Hill off the field. Hill is a great blocker as I mentioned earlier, and he is also a very good receiver in the backfield. He's just a more complete runner than Bernard too, and that will show this season. Hill is the best back Andy Dalton has ever had, and even though I don't think Dalton will take any strides in development, Cincinnati has a star in the making with Jeremy Hill. I'm predicting 1300 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, which truth be told aren't that different from his 2014 numbers, but it's only because they will get in their own way with the RBBC idea. He WILL establish himself as a star RB though, and if he gets more carries, he will do a lot more damage.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Ryan Shazier, MLB: Another player who barring injury, should be in for a big season. Part of me wanted to go with Martavis Bryant to breakout, but that is almost expected and I think that Shazier will actually make the bigger jump in 2015. He is an athletic freak that can physically do anything on the football field. He's also an incredible playmaker, and if he improves his technique and instincts, he can have a NaVorro Bowman type impact on this defense. He's not perfect, he's still very raw, but his ceiling is high. I have faith in Pittsburgh's defensive staff to coach up Shazier in areas where he needs it, but alongside Lawrence Timmons he will wreak havoc on opposing offenses. I'm predicting 95 total tackles for Shazier, 3 interceptions, 3 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries and quite a few jaw-dropping athletic plays.

Cleveland Browns

Barkevious Mingo, OLB: This is a risky breakout candidate. Not as risky as me predicting Johnny Manziel to break out, but nevertheless he might not shape out to what I believe he can. Mingo hasn't developed into the pass rusher the Browns were hoping for, and they also drafted Nate Orchard in the second round to add some depth on the edge. So why does Mingo get breakout candidate love? Simple, he improved a lot last season even if the stats don't necessarily show it, and he is still an athletic freak with a high ceiling. The Browns defense should be even better in 2015, and Mingo should be in line for a bigger role and more snaps too. I'm predicting 7 sacks for Mingo in 2015, which would be a huge increase from his 2 sacks in 2014. I also think he'll continue to develop a well rounded game, and improve in his technique, which is vital for his growth.

Baltimore Ravens

Jimmy Smith, CB: Jimmy Smith is a player that if he stays healthy, he will be a star. He was well on his way to stardom last season, but a foot injury prematurely ended his year. He has the size, athleticism and technique to go toe-to-toe with any wide receiver in the NFL and he's still only 26 years old. The Ravens secondary really struggled in 2014, and they should be in for a resurgence in 2015 with Smith being healthy and Webb being another year removed from his big injury. Everybody knows about the Ravens deadly front seven, and if you didn't know, now you do. They will be able to bring pressure to opposing QB's, which means Smith will have an easier time defending receivers (not that he needs it). Smith is in a position to thrive with Baltimore in 2015, and if he stays healthy, he could be a top 5 cornerback in the entire NFL. I'm predicting 3 interceptions, but what's most important is that he will constantly give opposing WR's a hard time and he will rarely be burned too.

Offseason Outlook 2015: Pittsburgh Steelers

Offense

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a terrific offense, and the biggest reason for that is Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has for the most part been a really good quarterback all throughout his career. Last year though, he was elite. The Steel Curtain has fallen off in recent years, and Ben has raised his game to carry the Pittsburgh Steelers. His pocket presence and movement is absolutely stunning to watch, and Pittsburgh fans should credit him for keeping them relevant as their defense has gotten older. Ben has gotten help though, most notably from one of the best receivers in football, Antonio Brown. Antonio Brown is the best route runner in football, and even though he doesn't have Calvin Johnson type size, he can beat any cornerback in the game. The Steelers should feel lucky that they have him locked up for a while, because he is still pretty young and might be this dominant for many years to come. Aside from Brown, the Steelers got some solid work out of Markus Wheaton as the 2nd guy. He may not have put up the stats that a lot of people were hoping for, as he was a fan favourite as a sleeper WR this past offseason, but he still played some good football. Speaking of sleeper wide receivers, Martavis Bryant seems to be the one everyone is hollering for, and it's hard to blame them. He proved to be a huge red zone target for Ben, and even with his limited route running skills, he had a great rookie year. I'm sure the Steelers expect him to develop his route running, and combined with his physical presence, he could turn into a terrific wide receiver. Next year, double digit touchdowns should almost be expected, and he has a shot to lead the entire NFL in receiving touchdowns. At tight end, the Steelers have been lucky enough to have a franchise TE for the past decade. Heath Miller has been the definition of consistency, and his play showed that last year as he put forth another solid effort and helped stretch the seam for Big Ben. With an explosive passing attack like this, you would expect their weakness to be in the run game. Wrong. Pittsburgh has arguably the best running back in all of football, in Le'Veon Bell. I don't like to suggest this for a lot of players, but watch his tape. Even go to Youtube and watch 5 minutes of his highlights, they are ridiculous. He has power, speed, evasiveness, and he makes terrific one cut decisions behind his O-line. Oh and did I mention he is one of the best receiving backs in the game? Well he is. Enough with my man crush on Le'Veon Bell, let's move on to the offensive line. The Steelers have really transformed this O-line over the past couple years, because up until recently, it was really bad. Last season though, it was actually great. Pittsburgh has transformed Kelvin Beachum into, dare I say, a franchise left tackle. That might be going a little far, but if we're just talking about last season, he was incredible protecting Ben's blindside. At left guard, they have Ramon Foster who was decent last year, nothing special, but definitely not bad. At center, they have a great player in Maurkice Pouncey. He had a good year last year, but when he is playing his best, he is one of the best centers in the NFL. At right guard, they have one of my favourite young guards in David DeCastro. He was great last year, and I think he could potentially take another step forward and become an elite guard this season. He's strong at the point of attack, a mauler in the run game, and has good hand placement too. At right tackle, the Steelers close out their O-line with another very solid player in Marcus Gilbert. He's not flashy, but he gets the job done. So to answer your question, yes this offense is good. They have very few glaring holes if any, and if Martavis Bryant or Wheaton can be a consistently reliable second option, look out opposing defences. For those of you who are interested, I don't think Bell's suspension will impact them in a huge way. They signed DeAngelo Williams to be their number 2 back, and he can take the load for the first couple games. In fact, this might help Bell stay fresh come seasons end. I would say that this is a top 5 offense, maybe even top 3 by years end. People need to realize that the Steelers identity is no longer a shutdown defense, it's a punch you in the face and blow you out offense.

Defense

On defense, this team is not the legendary Steel Curtain that would blanket opponents every game. They have been going through a transformation for the past couple years, and it still isn't done yet as there are some holes. On the defensive line, The Steelers will hope that Stephon Tuitt plays a bigger role for them. Last year he showed some promise as a rookie, but was overall inconsistent and will hopefully expand his game. At nose tackle, Pittsburgh has Steve McLendon who had a good year last year. They also have Daniel McCullers who is absolutely enormous (6'7/352 lbs), and the football fan in me wants him to get some playing time because his ceiling as a nose tackle is still really high. Opposite Tuitt, the Steelers have a really good defender in Cameron Heyward. He showed that he can anchor a defensive line last year, and was terrific against both rushing the passer and stopping the run. If the Steelers are going to take a big step defensively, it will be because of this young group of linebackers. Lawrence Timmons is the leader, and he is a very good ILB. Beside Timmons, they have Ryan Shazier, their 2014 1st round pick. Shazier could be a star next season if he stays healthy. He is crazy athletic, and has terrific instincts in the passing game as well. On the edge, The Steelers have a combination of James Harrison, Jarvis Jones, Arthur Moats, and Alvin "Bud" Dupree. Harrison is surprisingly putting up solid seasons at this stage of his career. Jarvis Jones has had a slow start to his career, but he was an extremely productive pass rusher in college and the Steelers are hoping he turns it around. Arthur Moats is another solid player that adds depth too. Finally, Bud Dupree has a chance to be a special edge rusher. He is extremely athletic, with grown man power when rushing the passer. In the secondary, Pittsburgh is going through their biggest makeover since the days of the Steel Curtain. A casual fan wouldn't recognize anybody in their secondary. Their starting cornerbacks will most likely be Cortez Allen and Senquez Golson, with William Gay in the slot. That group isn't particularly strong, although William Gay is coming off a good year. At safety, the Steelers have Mike Mitchell and Shamarko Thomas as their starters. This will be Thomas' first year starting, so he is a question mark as of now, but if he took advantage of learning under Troy Polamalu, then he could be a great safety. The Steelers also drafted Gerod Holliman in the 7th round, but he has the ball skills to be a factor in this defense early on. Pittsburgh is looking like a young inexperienced team on D. The loss of Dick LeBeau might hurt them, but Harrison, Timmons, and Heyward can hopefully set an example for the younger players. This defense shouldn't be expected to make much noise, but last year they were around the middle of the pack and they should be around the same this year too.

The Steelers are one of very few teams in the past few years to completely change their team identity. On top of that, they were successful in doing so. This offense is a threat in every sense of the word. They can run on you, pass on you, they have fast players, powerful players, and one hell of a QB. Mike Tomlin is a very good coach, and this team is always a threat to get to the Super Bowl every offseason. I don't love their defense at this point though, and I think the Steelers will have to rely on Ben's arm more then they ever have before. Even still, this is a competitive team that will most likely be a playoff team. 

The Patriot Way

This article is not about deflategate. Assuming Tom Brady's suspension holds, even though I doubt it will, he will miss a quarter of the season. If they go 0-4 (not saying they will just hypothetically) then that might be to much to come back from. So obviously losing Tom Brady hurts, but how does the team look with Garoppolo and how much of a downgrade is he from Brady?

The Patriots aren't in a horrible position right now contrary to what certain media members are implying. They have all offseason to prepare Jimmy Garoppolo to be Tom Brady's short-term replacement, and in limited time last year in the preseason and in relief of Brady for a handful of games he looked like a solid QB. It's a small sample size to analyze, but Bill Belichick is a smart coach, and Josh McDaniels is a terrific offensive coordinator, so they will put him in a situation to succeed. With that being said, Tom Brady has raised the level of play of every player around him for the past decade and a half, but Jimmy isn't Tom. So even though fans should be cautiously optimistic, there still should be the obvious expectation that the offense will drop off in some capacity. The exact drop off of talent from Brady to Garopollo is unknown at this point, but what can be analyzed is what should be expected in the first four games for the Patriots.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots: Thursday, September 10th, 2015
This will be the Patriots first test, but at least they have it at home. Facing Ben Roethlisberger is never an easy task, especially to open a season up. Luckily for the Patriots, the Steelers will be without their star running back Le'Veon Bell. The Steelers should be a good team this year, but this is a winnable game. The Steelers defense is still not back to an elite level, and even though they added some young talent in the draft, this is one of the better teams for Garoppolo and the Pats to launch their season with. Offensively, Pittsburgh will be a huge challenge. The loss of Darelle Revis will be tested early and often, as the Steelers have one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in Antonio Brown, and very few cornerbacks have the speed to keep up with him. I think this game ends up being close, as both of these historic franchises will come out swinging, but I predict the Patriots to come away with the win at home 27-23. (Yes I know it's way to early to predict scores, so complain if you will, but everybody else is doing their hot takes so I don't want to feel left out.)

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills: Sunday, September 20th, 2015
Wow so they have ten days between games. Just realized that. Theoretically this will be Garoppolo's last game because Brady will most likely win his appeal and get it down to two, so they can focus on this one game for 10 days, which is terrific for the Pats. Unfortunately for them, it is against a scary Buffalo Bills defense. The Bills are going to bring the heat in this game, especially under new head coach Rex Ryan who for some reason always plays the Patriots really hard. I think this will be a tough game for New England to win, and I actually have the Bills winning this in a tight game 17-16.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots: Sunday, September 27th, 2015
Like I said before, I am completely expecting Tom's suspension to be reduced to 2 games, but at this point it is 4 so let's look at the Jags game. The Jaguars are a young up and coming team (I go in depth on them in an offseason outlook article if you're interested) but on paper they still are no match for the Patriots even without Brady. Expect Gronk to have a big game here and for Bill Belichick to be too much to handle for the Jaguars. I'm giving the Pats a 27-17 win.

New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys: Sunday October 11th, 2015
The Patriots have a bye in week 4, so they face the Cowboys in week 5 which will be Brady's last game not playing if his suspension stands. On paper, this isn't a bad matchup. Dez Bryant will be a lot to handle for the Patriots, but apart from Dez, this is a pretty good game to not have Tom for. The Cowboys defense is slowly starting to take shape, but even though they have been drafting to fill needs on defense recently, they shouldn't strike fear in any team's hearts just yet. This is another great matchup for Gronkowski, as Dallas on paper at this point in the offseason has no linebacker, safety, or cornerback that can guard him. Garoppolo shouldn't be under too much pressure this game. Dallas has some good young defensive ends, but up the middle they are very thin. Dallas was not a good passing defense last year either, so expect Josh McDaniels to draw up some plays to attack them through the air from the get go. I expect Dallas to put up some points, but the Patriots will still be too much for them to handle as they win 24-23 in a close game.

If the Patriots can pull a 3-1 start to the season without Brady, then look out rest of the NFL. Bill Belichick has been lucky enough to have an elite QB for most of his coaching career, but that doesn't mean he can't win without one (*cough* Matt Cassel *Cough*). So even though part of me wants to predict wins for the Steelers and Cowboys over a Brady-less Patriots team, Belichick is too smart to not have something dangerous up his sleeve, and it should be expected from the rest of the NFL too.

2015 NFL Draft Review

The NFL draft was this past weekend, and this year, was actually fairly predictable. At least round 1 was. While many people were hoping for a trade with the 2nd overall pick (including me), the Titans stood pat and drafted Marcus Mariotoh, as Roger Goodell would say. A few picks really did stand out to me in the first round of the NFL draft, in both positive and negative ways.

New York Giants - Ereck Flowers, OG/OT
This was the biggest shock to me in the first half of the first round, and that includes Todd Gurley to the Rams. Sure the need of O-line was there, and a lot of people think the value was there too. I'm not one of them. It wasn't an insane reach either way, but there was a clear divide of talent in the first round. Universally, there were about 10 players, give or take a few, that were elite, blue-chip talents. The Giants had the 9th pick and they had a chance to get one of these players whether it was Todd Gurley or Devante Parker. Both of those picks would have filled needs too, especially because Victor Cruz' status is up in the air a bit, and both of those picks would have helped Eli too. This wasn't an awful pick in any means, and I'm sure that's noticeable because no analyst has really bashed this pick. Yet there were better picks on the board for the Giants, and if they are going to play Ereck Flowers at guard too, then they could easily have waited until the second or third round when the value lined up with the pick.

Kansas City Chiefs - Marcus Peters, CB
This was a steal. The only reason I'm not shaming the Minnesota Vikings for picking Trae Waynes over Marcus Peters is because I'm scared of Mike Zimmer since he will obviously turn any defensive player into a star. Back to KC though, if Marcus Peters can focus on football, this is potentially the best pick in the entire draft. Peters has the size, speed, athleticism, explosiveness, ball skills, smooth hips and toughness to become a top 5 cornerback in the NFL. Kansas City has quickly rebuilt their secondary and their defense as a whole looks pretty deadly now. With Dontari Poe, Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, Derrick Johnson, Marcus Peters, Sean Smith, Eric Berry (hopefully medically everything will be okay with him), and a lot of other solid players, they have a very threatening defense to go along with their offense. Great pick by the Chiefs.

Denver Broncos - Shane Ray, DE
Elephant in the room, let's get it out of the way. Shane Ray is a very good player, the value for the Broncos was great. That being said, what the hell Denver? Let's look at the Broncos current position, they have Peyton Manning for another year, maybe two. With how they have built their roster, it looks like they are going all out to win a Super Bowl before Manning retires. So what is the point to pick a pass rusher that will have to compete with Von Miller and Demarcus Ware for snaps when they should be trying to protect Manning or give him more weapons. The Broncos offensive line last year was not good. The Broncos could easily have picked D.J. Humphries, who was picked next by the Cardinals, to fill a void left by Orlando Franklin and even give a boost in pass protection. That would have been good value, and filled their biggest need. They did pick Ty Sambrailo with their second round pick, but there O-line still needs work and on top of that they didn't address the running back position at all in the draft. To sum up, good value, very confusing pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Bud Dupree, OLB
Depending on how the Steelers handle Dupree's development, this was a steal. The last few years the Steelers have had one mission. Get younger, faster, and more athletic on defense. They are accomplishing that. Between Cameron Heyward, Ryan Shazier, Jarvis Jones, Cortez Allen, and now Bud Dupree, there is talent on the Steelers defense. Now to focus on Bud Dupree, he is a very talented player. There was talk of Bud Dupree going top 10 before the draft, and the Steelers stayed where they were and got him at 22. He is a big and strong player, lacks a certain amount of consistency, but he landed in a terrific spot with the Steelers. He is extremely explosive, and this was a steal for a team that has a history of developing talented defensive players into stars.

New Orleans Saints - Stephone Anthony, ILB
The Saints had an interesting draft. I completely understand the direction they are trying to take with their team, and with Brees getting up there in age, it could pay off huge. I just did not like this pick at all. I thought there were 4 better inside linebackers then Stephone Anthony still on the board. Anthony is fairly raw in his technique, and he also has questionable instincts. Now that's not to say it's all bad, he's a heck of an athlete and he can grow into a great cover linebacker, which is a big need in the current passing NFL. If they were set on going ILB, I think Eric Kendricks would have been a better choice, or Benardrick McKinney. It is also a confusing pick because the Saints do have quite a few needs across the board. Malcolm Brown would have been a great pick, covering a big need as they need talent on defense and getting a very good value too. Or they could have drafted Randy Gregory which would have been huge for their defense giving Junior Galette a partner in crime to rush the passer.