AFC East Breakout Candidates 2015

Buffalo Bills

Stephon Gilmore, CB: Get ready for Gilmore to join the elite group of cornerbacks in 2015. Health has held him back these past couple of years, but if he can stay injury free then he is in for a huge year. Gilmore has the size, athleticism and ball skills to join the upper tier of cornerbacks, and he is in a terrific position with Buffalo to do just that. Rex Ryan has had a lot of success with defenses in general, and he often relies on great cornerbacks (Revis and Cromartie) to anchor his defenses. Ryan will be able to get the most out of Gilmore, and the Bills have arguably the best front 4 in all of football (between them and St. Louis) to aid Gilmore even more. I'm predicting a big jump from Gilmore, and for him to have 5 interceptions by seasons end.

Miami Dolphins

Jelani Jenkins, OLB: Jenkins has games where he is the best player on the field. He can be a tackling machine that plays all over the field. The problem is that there are games where he is very quiet and has such a small impact on the field. I'm going to bet on the former becoming more of a regular appearance in 2015. Jenkins is very good in coverage, and he also looked solid as a pass rusher too. Where he struggled at times was against the run, but lucky for him the Dolphins invested in Ndamukong Suh to beef up their D-line. This should give Jenkins more space to operate, and allow him to use his athleticism to flourish. I'm predicting Jelani Jenkins to have 135 combined tackles, with 3 interceptions and 4 sacks.

New England Patriots

Dominique Easley, DT: Easley is another year removed from his ACL tear, and should be in line to play a lot of snaps for New England. Alan Branch and Sealver Siliga are not good starters to have, and the Patriots have two very talented young players in Easley and Malcolm Brown waiting to replace them. Since I don't mention rookies as breakout candidates, I won't talk about Malcolm Brown, but Easley is a talented interior pass rusher and penetrator, and can be a key cog in a talented Patriots front seven. New England will rely on him to step up because they lost Vince Wilfork in the middle, and need another threat in between their ends. Even though he won't play nose tackle like Wilfork, he can eat up space in the middle to give the Pats linebackers space to work their magic. What's working against him is his health. He has torn both of his ACL's in his career but if he can stay healthy I'm predicting 4 sacks, and for him to be an impact run stuffer too.

New York Jets

Calvin Pryor, SS: What better way to retool a struggling secondary then by signing Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie and Buster Skrine. They also have an incredible defensive line to support their secondary. This puts Calvin Pryor in a perfect position to do what he does best, hit hard, make plays and strike fear into opponents. Todd Bowles has a better Deone Buchanon to use in Calvin Pryor, and with a substantially better secondary, this allows Bowles to play Pryor to his strengths. He had a solid rookie season, but at times he struggled with consistency and went through expected rookie struggles. If he can fix a few technical issues, he could turn into a terrific safety. This kid is a flat out playmaker and he should begin to realize his potential next season. I'm predicting 80 total tackles, 3 interceptions, 1.5 sacks and a handful of bone crushing hits.

Offseason Outlook 2015: Buffalo Bills

Offense

Words used so often in football, "They are a quarterback away". Frankly, it is true with Buffalo. They will be strolling out either Matt Cassel, E.J. Manuel, Tyrod Taylor or Jeff Tuel behind center. If you didn't know, that is not a strong group of quarterbacks, and they would be lucky to get league average QB play from one of them. At the skill positions, Buffalo got quite a few star-caliber players to add to their roster. It starts with LeSean McCoy. The Bills traded Kiko Alonso for the star running back. The Bills haven't had an RB of his talent level for a very long time. Adding LeSean McCoy will force opponents to stack the box, which will open up more space for their receivers. The Bills have a star in the making in Sammy Watkins, and he is still paired up with another blossoming young player in Robert Woods. Rex Ryan and Bills management didn't stop there though, they also signed Percy Harvin in free agency. For those of you that don't know or happen to forget, Percy Harvin was an MVP candidate in his last year with Minnesota until he got injured, and even though the last fcouple years have been a big struggle for him, he still has an abundance of talent. The speed and skill level of all these wideouts is enough to scare defenses, but add in LeSean McCoy too, and it will be really tough for any defense to play man coverage against this offense. The offensive line is mediocre at best. Cordy Glenn is a solid left tackle, but there are question marks all across the rest of the O-line. Eric Wood is a decent center, and Richie Incognito was a good guard the last time he played, but he's currently a big question mark. At right tackle, Seantrel Henderson will duke it out with Cyrus Kouandjio to start, but both players struggled last year. The Bills drafted John Miller in the 3rd round this year and he will likely start at the other guard position, but not much should be expected out of a rookie guard. While the lack of talent on the O-line and at QB should be noted, this offense isn't doomed in the slightest. Expect a lot of quick passes and screen passes, as McCoy, Watkins and Harvin are three of the best players with the ball in their hands in the NFL. The Bills will most likely want to become a ground and pound offense under Rex Ryan, and they have the weapons to get that done and put up some points. I doubt they will be an elite offense, but they have a chance to be middle of the pack, which would be a huge improvement over last year.

Defense

The Bills did hire Rex Ryan for a reason. and Sexy Rexy has made one heck of a career on creating elite defenses. Lucky for him, the Bills already have an elite defense, as they were 4th in fewest points allowed per game in 2014. It starts and ends up front with one of the most dangerous defensive lines in football (we'll get to St. Louis eventually). From left to right, they have Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams, and Jerry Hughes. 3 of those players are elites at their positions and Jerry Hughes is turning into a spectacular pass rusher. At linebacker, they traded away their star in Kiko Alonso to get McCoy, but Ryan has done spectacular work in his career with getting the absolute most production out of linebackers. They also have a talented sophomore in Preston Brown. Nigel Bradham was good for them last year too, so Rex has some talent to work with. In the secondary, they have a young up and coming cornerback in Stephon Gilmore. If he stays healthy, he could really turn the corner to being a top 10 cornerback this year. They recently drafted Ronald Darby in the 2nd round, which I thought was a good pick. He doesn't do any one thing spectacularly, but he is a solid overall cornerback and I could easily see him being a great number 2 behind Gilmore for years to come. Leodis McKelvin is another solid cornerback who will be the number 2 this year behind Gilmore, and Nickell Robey was a good nickel cornerback last year and should continue to grow (Nickell playing nickel... Get it? Anyone? No, okay...). At safety, they have Duke and Aaron Williams who were both average players last year. It's true that this defense will be known for their deadly front four, but there is some depth to it and talent across the board. So when this defense is top 5 another year in a row, make sure to give Gilmore, Brown and some other players some credit too.

Bills fans are used to hearing that it's going to be another long year, so I guess it's a good thing that they don't have to hear that same line this year too! The Bills are building something. I think Rex Ryan is the perfect coach for them, and just by the general attitude in Buffalo, you can tell that there is a level of excitement they haven't had in years. Do I think they will win the division? No, sorry Buffalo fans. The difference between Brady and Matt Cassel is too much. I do think Buffalo has a great shot at a wildcard playoff berth this year. They were oh so close last year, and I believe that Buffalo only got better this year. So Bills fans, sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride this season, because it's going to be exciting.

The Patriot Way

This article is not about deflategate. Assuming Tom Brady's suspension holds, even though I doubt it will, he will miss a quarter of the season. If they go 0-4 (not saying they will just hypothetically) then that might be to much to come back from. So obviously losing Tom Brady hurts, but how does the team look with Garoppolo and how much of a downgrade is he from Brady?

The Patriots aren't in a horrible position right now contrary to what certain media members are implying. They have all offseason to prepare Jimmy Garoppolo to be Tom Brady's short-term replacement, and in limited time last year in the preseason and in relief of Brady for a handful of games he looked like a solid QB. It's a small sample size to analyze, but Bill Belichick is a smart coach, and Josh McDaniels is a terrific offensive coordinator, so they will put him in a situation to succeed. With that being said, Tom Brady has raised the level of play of every player around him for the past decade and a half, but Jimmy isn't Tom. So even though fans should be cautiously optimistic, there still should be the obvious expectation that the offense will drop off in some capacity. The exact drop off of talent from Brady to Garopollo is unknown at this point, but what can be analyzed is what should be expected in the first four games for the Patriots.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots: Thursday, September 10th, 2015
This will be the Patriots first test, but at least they have it at home. Facing Ben Roethlisberger is never an easy task, especially to open a season up. Luckily for the Patriots, the Steelers will be without their star running back Le'Veon Bell. The Steelers should be a good team this year, but this is a winnable game. The Steelers defense is still not back to an elite level, and even though they added some young talent in the draft, this is one of the better teams for Garoppolo and the Pats to launch their season with. Offensively, Pittsburgh will be a huge challenge. The loss of Darelle Revis will be tested early and often, as the Steelers have one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in Antonio Brown, and very few cornerbacks have the speed to keep up with him. I think this game ends up being close, as both of these historic franchises will come out swinging, but I predict the Patriots to come away with the win at home 27-23. (Yes I know it's way to early to predict scores, so complain if you will, but everybody else is doing their hot takes so I don't want to feel left out.)

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills: Sunday, September 20th, 2015
Wow so they have ten days between games. Just realized that. Theoretically this will be Garoppolo's last game because Brady will most likely win his appeal and get it down to two, so they can focus on this one game for 10 days, which is terrific for the Pats. Unfortunately for them, it is against a scary Buffalo Bills defense. The Bills are going to bring the heat in this game, especially under new head coach Rex Ryan who for some reason always plays the Patriots really hard. I think this will be a tough game for New England to win, and I actually have the Bills winning this in a tight game 17-16.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots: Sunday, September 27th, 2015
Like I said before, I am completely expecting Tom's suspension to be reduced to 2 games, but at this point it is 4 so let's look at the Jags game. The Jaguars are a young up and coming team (I go in depth on them in an offseason outlook article if you're interested) but on paper they still are no match for the Patriots even without Brady. Expect Gronk to have a big game here and for Bill Belichick to be too much to handle for the Jaguars. I'm giving the Pats a 27-17 win.

New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys: Sunday October 11th, 2015
The Patriots have a bye in week 4, so they face the Cowboys in week 5 which will be Brady's last game not playing if his suspension stands. On paper, this isn't a bad matchup. Dez Bryant will be a lot to handle for the Patriots, but apart from Dez, this is a pretty good game to not have Tom for. The Cowboys defense is slowly starting to take shape, but even though they have been drafting to fill needs on defense recently, they shouldn't strike fear in any team's hearts just yet. This is another great matchup for Gronkowski, as Dallas on paper at this point in the offseason has no linebacker, safety, or cornerback that can guard him. Garoppolo shouldn't be under too much pressure this game. Dallas has some good young defensive ends, but up the middle they are very thin. Dallas was not a good passing defense last year either, so expect Josh McDaniels to draw up some plays to attack them through the air from the get go. I expect Dallas to put up some points, but the Patriots will still be too much for them to handle as they win 24-23 in a close game.

If the Patriots can pull a 3-1 start to the season without Brady, then look out rest of the NFL. Bill Belichick has been lucky enough to have an elite QB for most of his coaching career, but that doesn't mean he can't win without one (*cough* Matt Cassel *Cough*). So even though part of me wants to predict wins for the Steelers and Cowboys over a Brady-less Patriots team, Belichick is too smart to not have something dangerous up his sleeve, and it should be expected from the rest of the NFL too.