AFC West Breakout Candidates 2015

Denver Broncos

Bradley Roby, CB: The rich get richer. Denver's talent at cornerback is already at an elite level with Chris Harris and Aqib Talib, and Bradley Roby will push them over the edge. Roby had a solid rookie season, but he has an incredibly high ceiling. He has the size, speed and ball skills of an elite cornerback, he just needs to work on consistency. He sometimes can get caught trying to make the big play and get burned, but if he works on that he could be great. He is in a very good position with Denver too, as they have a wicked pass rush with Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware and Shane Ray. The Broncos D can bring the heat, which provides more of an opportunity for their secondary to make plays. Roby will bring to light that the Broncos have a terrifying trio instead of a dynamic duo at cornerback. I'm predicting 4 interceptions for Roby and more consistent play too.

San Diego Chargers

Jason Verrett, CB: I'm not overly confident in this choice. Only because I don't know if Verrett has already broken out. Mighty Mouse is a star. I have a huge man crush on this guy, and I think he is going to be one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL for years to come. He has all the traits you would look for in a star cornerback except for size, but he plays way bigger than he is. I could go on and on about how awesome Verrett  is, but it's easier if you just watch some of his highlights. He's incredible. Between him and Flowers, the Chargers have a deadly duo at cornerback. I'm predicting 3 interceptions for Verrett, but more importantly I think he will end the year as a top 5 cornerback.

Oakland Raiders

Derek Carr, QB: There are usually two kinds of opinions on Derek Carr. The first is that he is a franchise QB and had a terrific rookie season. The second is he had a horrible rookie year and isn't a good quarterback. I fall somewhere in between these two views. I think he had a bad rookie season, but he showed me enough flashes of brilliance that I think he is a franchise QB going forward and will make a big leap in year 2. Carr is a very smart quarterback with a big arm, and I'm expecting him to jump to at least a league average QB next year. Drafting Amari Cooper was very smart by Raiders management, because Carr really lacked any explosive go to target, and now that he has just that in Cooper there is no telling what the two can do. Oakland also has hope in the backfield with Latavius Murray, and if he is even serviceable then that will go a long way in helping ease some pressure off of Carr. I'm predicting 3,800 yards for Carr, with 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce, TE: The only things that previously stood in Kelce's way to break out earlier is health and playing time. Health is always a risk for every player, but the lack of playing time should not be a problem anymore. Kelce is an absolute animal on the field, which led to his nickname being Mini-Gronk, and it is almost criminal that it has taken KC this long to realize they should play him more. Kansas City does run a conservative offense, but along with Maclin and Charles, they only have three real receiving threats so he should be due for a lot of targets. I don't have much negative to say about Kelce. Talent wise I think he is a top 3 TE in the NFL (behind Gronk and Graham) and if KC uses him well then he will put the NFL on notice early. I'm predicting 950 yards and 10 touchdowns for this behemoth.

Offseason Outlook 2015: Kansas City Chiefs

Offense

Do the Chiefs have a franchise QB in Alex Smith? No idea. He's pretty good though, and Kansas City has put him in a position offensively that limits mistakes and works well for his style of play. This year marks the first year under Alex Smith's tenure as the Chiefs QB that he has offensive weapons not named Jamaal Charles. The Chiefs gave Jeremy Maclin a 5 year/$55 million deal this offseason to come in and be their number one guy. Fact: All of the Chiefs WR's last year combined to catch 0 touchdown passes. The Chiefs know their WR's were not good last year, and they needed to change the dynamic at the position, ergo Jeremy Maclin. They also released Dwayne Bowe, and even though he was playing uninspired last year, he is still a good WR so they needed to fill the void even more. I'm taking a bit of a shot in the dark here, but I also think De'Anthony Thomas' role as a receiver will increase this season. I know he was drafted as mainly a returner and a gadget player, but he has ridiculous speed and I think he could be used more often this season. Another player to keep an eye on for Kansas City is Jason Avant who wasn't that bad last year in a brief stint with the Chiefs and he might be even better with Jeremy Maclin as the first receiver. The Chiefs are still clearly thin at the receiver position though, but they have other threats on offense too. Travis Kelce at tight end, is basically mini Gronk. I'm sure he's not a fan of that nickname, because he will eventually carve out his own legacy whatever that may be, but he plays with that same intensity. There will be plays where he will be impossible to take down. I honestly mean that, this guy gets hit and he shakes it off like it was a bug that flew into him. He is a monster, and if he stays fully healthy, expect big things from him even out of the conservative Kansas City offense. In the backfield, the Chiefs have Jamaal Charles. Most people know how good he is, so I'm not going to dive into too much detail here, but yeah he's really, really good. Knile Davis backs up Charles, and he is a curious case because he had a rough year last year, but was great in limited action the year before. He's still very young (only 23), and I think he can be a solid backup for Charles this season. The Chiefs offensive line is... Rough. The Chiefs only spent one pick on it in this draft, when they have holes all across it. They picked Mitch Morse, who will slot in at center to replace their one good O-lineman Rodney Hudson who got signed by Oakland. On the left side they have Eric Fisher at tackle, who has struggled mightily ever since he was drafted first overall, and they traded for Ben Grubbs who was solid last year, but he's getting older and is a bit of a question mark himself. On the right side the Chiefs have Jeff Allen and Donald Stephenson respectively, and they were both below average starters last season and haven't shown anything to make me think they will turn it around. The silver lining for this team having a weak O-line is they know how to minimize mistakes. The conservative offense they run gets the ball out of Alex Smith's hand very quickly and tries to get their speed players (Charles, Thomas) in space. They run a lot of slants and get their WR's blocking well, which plays to their strengths in the long run. They were surprisingly a decent offense when it came to points scored per game last year, and they should have no trouble repeating what they did last year based on the upgrade from Bowe to Maclin and another year of development out of Kelce.

Defense

This is one scary defense on paper. On the D-line, they have a star in Dontari Poe, who consistently is in the backfield being as disruptive as any other nose tackle in the league. They also have Mike Devito to put on one side of him, and he is a very underrated player. He has a motor that never turns off, and I think is a key player for this elite defense. Opposite Devito, the Chiefs have options. Allen Bailey was solid last year, but they also have Mike Catapano and Jaye Howard who both could be good options too. Whoever they end up choosing, there is depth at the end positions for KC. At linebacker, the Chiefs have some serious talent. In the middle they have a star in Derrick Johnson. Who they pair up with him is the real question because they run a 3-4 defense. James-Michael Johnson was okay last year, but they drafted Ramik Wilson in the 4th round this year and he could help them a lot against the run. Then at outside linebacker, the Cheifs have a couple okay players I guess... They have this guy Justin Houston who had 22 sacks last year, and this other guy Tamba Hali who is consistently at the top of QB pressure leaderboards and has almost 80 career sacks. Oh and they have last years first round pick Dee Ford too. The craziest thing about this defense is that their secondary is shaping up to be one of the best in the league. Sean Smith, who has been terrorized in his career for having bad hands and dropping interceptions, was great last year as the Chiefs number one cornerback. They also drafted Marcus Peters, who I thought was the steal of round one, and he has all the tools to be a star in this league. If his off field issues are completely in his past, then he will put the NFL on notice quickly because he has everything you look for in a cornerback. He has straight line speed to keep up with receivers, fluid hips, he is very physical in press coverage, and he has terrific ball skills too. Call me out if I'm wrong, but this kid is a star in the making if he gets past his off field troubles. At safety the Chiefs resigned Ron Parker, which was a solid signing because he is a good safety. They also have Eric Berry who is a star, but due to being diagnosed with Hodgkin's lymphoma nobody knows what his future in football entails, we just wish him the best and hope for a speedy recovery. The Chiefs have Husain Abdullah to play beside Parker, and he is also a very solid option at safety. In the slot, Phillip Gaines will most likely be the man, and he also had a decent season last year and should get even better. This defense won't get as much press as the Seahawks D, but maybe it should. It was the second best defense last year, and frankly it looks even better this year. The mix of established stars and young talent implies that this defense can continue to grow, and continue to win Kansas City games.

This is a good looking Chiefs team. I predict them to be competing for a wild card spot just like last year, but just because I'm calling a similar finish doesn't mean that this team didn't get better. The questions on offense prevent me from being all in on KC, but this defense is no laughing matter. I think that this team has a chance to be good for a long time too, as they have a lot of game changers on defense that are really young, and they appear to be drafting pretty well (at least in my opinion). They franchise tagged Justin Houston, so his status is up in the air after next season, but he could easily be going for the sack record again this year so let's just take his contract details in stride. Andy Reid has put together a good ball club with John Dorsey their GM, and with the raw talent they have on this roster, I could easily see them in the playoffs next season and maybe even winning a playoff game or two.

2015 NFL Draft Review

The NFL draft was this past weekend, and this year, was actually fairly predictable. At least round 1 was. While many people were hoping for a trade with the 2nd overall pick (including me), the Titans stood pat and drafted Marcus Mariotoh, as Roger Goodell would say. A few picks really did stand out to me in the first round of the NFL draft, in both positive and negative ways.

New York Giants - Ereck Flowers, OG/OT
This was the biggest shock to me in the first half of the first round, and that includes Todd Gurley to the Rams. Sure the need of O-line was there, and a lot of people think the value was there too. I'm not one of them. It wasn't an insane reach either way, but there was a clear divide of talent in the first round. Universally, there were about 10 players, give or take a few, that were elite, blue-chip talents. The Giants had the 9th pick and they had a chance to get one of these players whether it was Todd Gurley or Devante Parker. Both of those picks would have filled needs too, especially because Victor Cruz' status is up in the air a bit, and both of those picks would have helped Eli too. This wasn't an awful pick in any means, and I'm sure that's noticeable because no analyst has really bashed this pick. Yet there were better picks on the board for the Giants, and if they are going to play Ereck Flowers at guard too, then they could easily have waited until the second or third round when the value lined up with the pick.

Kansas City Chiefs - Marcus Peters, CB
This was a steal. The only reason I'm not shaming the Minnesota Vikings for picking Trae Waynes over Marcus Peters is because I'm scared of Mike Zimmer since he will obviously turn any defensive player into a star. Back to KC though, if Marcus Peters can focus on football, this is potentially the best pick in the entire draft. Peters has the size, speed, athleticism, explosiveness, ball skills, smooth hips and toughness to become a top 5 cornerback in the NFL. Kansas City has quickly rebuilt their secondary and their defense as a whole looks pretty deadly now. With Dontari Poe, Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, Derrick Johnson, Marcus Peters, Sean Smith, Eric Berry (hopefully medically everything will be okay with him), and a lot of other solid players, they have a very threatening defense to go along with their offense. Great pick by the Chiefs.

Denver Broncos - Shane Ray, DE
Elephant in the room, let's get it out of the way. Shane Ray is a very good player, the value for the Broncos was great. That being said, what the hell Denver? Let's look at the Broncos current position, they have Peyton Manning for another year, maybe two. With how they have built their roster, it looks like they are going all out to win a Super Bowl before Manning retires. So what is the point to pick a pass rusher that will have to compete with Von Miller and Demarcus Ware for snaps when they should be trying to protect Manning or give him more weapons. The Broncos offensive line last year was not good. The Broncos could easily have picked D.J. Humphries, who was picked next by the Cardinals, to fill a void left by Orlando Franklin and even give a boost in pass protection. That would have been good value, and filled their biggest need. They did pick Ty Sambrailo with their second round pick, but there O-line still needs work and on top of that they didn't address the running back position at all in the draft. To sum up, good value, very confusing pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Bud Dupree, OLB
Depending on how the Steelers handle Dupree's development, this was a steal. The last few years the Steelers have had one mission. Get younger, faster, and more athletic on defense. They are accomplishing that. Between Cameron Heyward, Ryan Shazier, Jarvis Jones, Cortez Allen, and now Bud Dupree, there is talent on the Steelers defense. Now to focus on Bud Dupree, he is a very talented player. There was talk of Bud Dupree going top 10 before the draft, and the Steelers stayed where they were and got him at 22. He is a big and strong player, lacks a certain amount of consistency, but he landed in a terrific spot with the Steelers. He is extremely explosive, and this was a steal for a team that has a history of developing talented defensive players into stars.

New Orleans Saints - Stephone Anthony, ILB
The Saints had an interesting draft. I completely understand the direction they are trying to take with their team, and with Brees getting up there in age, it could pay off huge. I just did not like this pick at all. I thought there were 4 better inside linebackers then Stephone Anthony still on the board. Anthony is fairly raw in his technique, and he also has questionable instincts. Now that's not to say it's all bad, he's a heck of an athlete and he can grow into a great cover linebacker, which is a big need in the current passing NFL. If they were set on going ILB, I think Eric Kendricks would have been a better choice, or Benardrick McKinney. It is also a confusing pick because the Saints do have quite a few needs across the board. Malcolm Brown would have been a great pick, covering a big need as they need talent on defense and getting a very good value too. Or they could have drafted Randy Gregory which would have been huge for their defense giving Junior Galette a partner in crime to rush the passer.