Offseason Outlook 2015: New England Patriots

Well after Deflategate, I figured I may as well look into the Patriots team. And even with some roster losses, it still looks pretty freaking awesome.

Offense

Yes, Tom Brady is suspended the first four (probably 2) games. That's irrelevant, the Patriots still have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. When a team has an elite QB, they are going to have a potent offense no matter what. Luckily it's not just Brady, the Pats have some weapons too. Rob Gronkowski is the cream of the crop when it comes to New England. Gronk puts in work, and having that type of premier talent helps Brady (or Garoppolo) out big time. New England also signed Scott Chandler, and they have Timothy Wright, so TE depth is not an issue either. At wide receiver, Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, and Danny Amendola are the three that the Pats will be counting on. All three are solid wide receivers, with Edelman being the best of them, but nothing crazy should be expected out of them. New England has built a respectable offensive line. Nate Solder at left tackle, and Sebastian Vollmer at right tackle are a formidable duo. Inside is where they struggle. Brian Stork is very young and he could still end up being a good center, the recently drafted Tre' Jackson should help with the depth at guard, and Ryan Wendell is decent too. Josh Kline also put in a solid year last year, but he'll be monitored this year and possibly replaced if the time comes. At running back is where the Patriots have issues. This is a very, very thin group of unproven backs. It is led by LeGarrette Blount, who could be okay in an increased workload, but will start the season suspended. The depth is James White, Jonas Gray, Brandon Bolden, and Travaris Cadet. This group is unproven and unspectacular, but knowing Bill Belichick he will get 200 yard games from each of them at some point. The offense is still centred around Tom Brady, and it will rely on him until he retires, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there because right now the Pats offense looks threatening again, and should have no trouble being in the top 5 in points scored, like they have been for the past 5 years.

Defense

Bill Belichick has built one heck of a defense. The only real hole is at cornerback. The loss of Revis, Browner, and the releases of Dennard and Arrington hurt. Now the Patriots will rely on Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan, and Bradley Fletcher to shut down opposing wide receivers. So that is pretty rough. The Pats front seven is deadly though. Vince Wilfork is another big loss, but they drafted Malcolm Brown to be an interior pass rusher, which is not really what Big Vince was for, but nonetheless he can be a difference maker inside. Their duo at DE is Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones who are both very good players. If Chandler Jones can stay healthy, expect a monstrous season out of the long armed pass rusher. They also signed Jabaal Sheard who I think will end up being the biggest bargain value in free agency. He'll be a great pass rusher, and can play the run well too. The scariest part about New England's defense is definitely their linebackers. Dont'a Hightower, Jerod Mayo (hopefully he can stay healthy), and Jamie Collins are all outstanding players and will be the difference in the Patriots having an okay defense, or an elite defense. Fortunately for the Pats they resigned their biggest priority this offseason. Not Darrelle Revis no, but Devin McCourty. He is the heart of that secondary, and he'll patrol center field for them making big plays and playing incredible football. This defense should see some regression, as they had big losses at cornerback and they lost Vince Wilfork too. Although that shouldn't worry Pats fans, as they are getting Jerod Mayo back for hopefully more then 6 games this year, and the development of their young linebackers and Chandler Jones should make up for some of the losses.

Pats fans are used to this, but an 11-12 win season should be expected again this year. The AFC East did get a lot stronger this offseason, and Tom Brady is suspended, but that won't be enough to keep them out of the playoffs. Eventually another team will win the AFC East, just not this year, especially after the offseason the Pats had with them being under investigation for Deflategate. Expect them to come out swinging this season.

The Patriot Way

This article is not about deflategate. Assuming Tom Brady's suspension holds, even though I doubt it will, he will miss a quarter of the season. If they go 0-4 (not saying they will just hypothetically) then that might be to much to come back from. So obviously losing Tom Brady hurts, but how does the team look with Garoppolo and how much of a downgrade is he from Brady?

The Patriots aren't in a horrible position right now contrary to what certain media members are implying. They have all offseason to prepare Jimmy Garoppolo to be Tom Brady's short-term replacement, and in limited time last year in the preseason and in relief of Brady for a handful of games he looked like a solid QB. It's a small sample size to analyze, but Bill Belichick is a smart coach, and Josh McDaniels is a terrific offensive coordinator, so they will put him in a situation to succeed. With that being said, Tom Brady has raised the level of play of every player around him for the past decade and a half, but Jimmy isn't Tom. So even though fans should be cautiously optimistic, there still should be the obvious expectation that the offense will drop off in some capacity. The exact drop off of talent from Brady to Garopollo is unknown at this point, but what can be analyzed is what should be expected in the first four games for the Patriots.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots: Thursday, September 10th, 2015
This will be the Patriots first test, but at least they have it at home. Facing Ben Roethlisberger is never an easy task, especially to open a season up. Luckily for the Patriots, the Steelers will be without their star running back Le'Veon Bell. The Steelers should be a good team this year, but this is a winnable game. The Steelers defense is still not back to an elite level, and even though they added some young talent in the draft, this is one of the better teams for Garoppolo and the Pats to launch their season with. Offensively, Pittsburgh will be a huge challenge. The loss of Darelle Revis will be tested early and often, as the Steelers have one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in Antonio Brown, and very few cornerbacks have the speed to keep up with him. I think this game ends up being close, as both of these historic franchises will come out swinging, but I predict the Patriots to come away with the win at home 27-23. (Yes I know it's way to early to predict scores, so complain if you will, but everybody else is doing their hot takes so I don't want to feel left out.)

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills: Sunday, September 20th, 2015
Wow so they have ten days between games. Just realized that. Theoretically this will be Garoppolo's last game because Brady will most likely win his appeal and get it down to two, so they can focus on this one game for 10 days, which is terrific for the Pats. Unfortunately for them, it is against a scary Buffalo Bills defense. The Bills are going to bring the heat in this game, especially under new head coach Rex Ryan who for some reason always plays the Patriots really hard. I think this will be a tough game for New England to win, and I actually have the Bills winning this in a tight game 17-16.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots: Sunday, September 27th, 2015
Like I said before, I am completely expecting Tom's suspension to be reduced to 2 games, but at this point it is 4 so let's look at the Jags game. The Jaguars are a young up and coming team (I go in depth on them in an offseason outlook article if you're interested) but on paper they still are no match for the Patriots even without Brady. Expect Gronk to have a big game here and for Bill Belichick to be too much to handle for the Jaguars. I'm giving the Pats a 27-17 win.

New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys: Sunday October 11th, 2015
The Patriots have a bye in week 4, so they face the Cowboys in week 5 which will be Brady's last game not playing if his suspension stands. On paper, this isn't a bad matchup. Dez Bryant will be a lot to handle for the Patriots, but apart from Dez, this is a pretty good game to not have Tom for. The Cowboys defense is slowly starting to take shape, but even though they have been drafting to fill needs on defense recently, they shouldn't strike fear in any team's hearts just yet. This is another great matchup for Gronkowski, as Dallas on paper at this point in the offseason has no linebacker, safety, or cornerback that can guard him. Garoppolo shouldn't be under too much pressure this game. Dallas has some good young defensive ends, but up the middle they are very thin. Dallas was not a good passing defense last year either, so expect Josh McDaniels to draw up some plays to attack them through the air from the get go. I expect Dallas to put up some points, but the Patriots will still be too much for them to handle as they win 24-23 in a close game.

If the Patriots can pull a 3-1 start to the season without Brady, then look out rest of the NFL. Bill Belichick has been lucky enough to have an elite QB for most of his coaching career, but that doesn't mean he can't win without one (*cough* Matt Cassel *Cough*). So even though part of me wants to predict wins for the Steelers and Cowboys over a Brady-less Patriots team, Belichick is too smart to not have something dangerous up his sleeve, and it should be expected from the rest of the NFL too.