Super Bowl 50 Recap

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The 2015 NFL season officially concluded with Sunday's bout, but before I go into offseason/draft mode, let me get the obligatory gut reactions out of the way. Before I get into the actual game, holy s*** Thomas Davis is one tough SOB.

Peyton Manning

The Sheriff gets to go out on top, if he so chooses. It's great for the sport to see one of the best and most respected players in the history of the game to ride off into the sunset like Peyton Manning did. With that being said, this game does nothing to influence my opinion on him, and it shouldn't for anybody. Peyton Manning is one of the best players in NFL history regardless of what happened in Super Bowl 50, that's just a fact. Even though he was average at best in the Super Bowl, it is fitting that after so many years of Peyton getting the blame for his team not stepping up with him (not saying he was always perfect, but just as an example the Broncos/Ravens game with the Joe Flacco Hail Mary, if it was batted down then that's a win for Manning and the Broncos), he finally gets carried to a win of massive proportions. Peyton deserves it, and I'm thrilled for him, but once again, this changes absolutely nothing about his legacy.

Cam Newton

Every person tearing into Cam right now needs to really take a look at themselves. If you haven't seen Newton's post-game press conference, it is not close to as bad as everybody is making it out to be. Also when he left, it seemed like it was because he heard a Broncos player talking badly about him, but no matter what the reason was, the real question is who cares? It's a post game presser, after he lost the biggest game of his life, in which he was probably extremely disappointed in himself. He's an emotional person. He plays the game with his heart on his sleeve, and because of that he has extremely high highs, and really low lows. For some reason, that pisses a huge portion of people off. I honestly have no idea why, I guess people just love to hate. It's toxic though, and when you go on Twitter or somewhere on the internet and say unforgivable things about a human being who has fun playing a game, then you should really reexamine your entire life.

I feel like I needed to say all of that. Now onto Cam's actual performance and the fallout from that. Cam was rattled for sure, and it's not a surprise that he had one of his worst games of the year against this Denver defense. Look at what they have done to Brady, Roethlisberger and Rodgers this season. Miller and Ware just kept getting to Cam, and the vertical passing game the Panthers like to run didn't fare well all game. The entire Panthers offense looked off all game, Cam included, and it was just an old school ass kicking. What troubles me is Cam not jumping on Von Miller's second forced fumble. I've watched the play several times and even though it wasn't as bad as most think, he still should have jumped on it. It's the Super Bowl, you can't hold back at any point in the game. Cam has a lot to learn from this game, but I don't think any of it is about his attitude. Football needs somebody like Cam. Somebody who won't give cookie cutter answers to every question, somebody who actually has fun playing a GAME, and somebody who is in love with football so much and plays with such passion that he sometimes can't control his emotions. This isn't a bad thing football world, it's great.

Von Miller

John Elway is just going to end up giving Miller a blank check with his name on it, right? Von has a chance to become the highest paid player in football, and it's well deserved to. No matter what team he goes up against, he wreaks havoc. Remmers had no chance the entire day, and time and time again Miller would be right in the pocket blowing up the play. Between his performance in the AFC Championship Game, and in the Super Bowl, Miller consistently flashes unprecedented talent. The biggest moment of this Super Bowl that will stick with me for a really long time was his first forced fumble. He just ripped it out of Cam Newton's hand. He didn't hit the ball out, he took it away from him. My jaw just dropped. The entire play was such a beautiful display of power, speed, bend and  He's just a stellar all-around player.

Marshawn Lynch

HE RETIRED. ON TWITTER. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUPER BOWL. WITH A PICTURE OF CLEATS HANGING. HE IS AMAZING. I don't care if you hate the Seahawks, you gotta respect Marshawn Lynch. He isn't influenced by anybody else, he plays by his own rules and you have to respect that. Oh, and this isn't at all a hot take, but it's still worth mentioning, he should be in the Hall Of Fame. He has the numbers, he was one of, if not the best running back in the league at a certain point, and he was consistently dominant throughout his career. He also had so many wow moments, it seems like each game I would say at least a handful of times "How is he still up?". If Peyton Manning retires, he'll get all the headlines, but we'll already be without another great for the 2016 season.

Super Bowl 2016 Preview

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I'm seeing a lot of people who are absolutely shocked by the teams playing in the Super Bowl. Don't get me wrong, even though I thought Denver and Caroline would win, I'm still a little surprised too. I don't know why though. These are the top seeds from each conference, Denver's defense is one of the best, most complete defenses I have seen in years (sorry Seattle) full of game changing playmakers at every level of the defense. Carolina is such a complete team across the board. Sure, Cam Newton doesn't have the best weapons, but then again they just put up 49 points against one of the best defenses in the league in Arizona, and their defense is also stacked at every level. I truly believe that this is the best outcome of teams possible for the Super Bowl this year. The storylines to sell to the public are endless. On the field and off the field, media members are licking their chops at the opportunity to talk about "The Sheriff's Last Rodeo" or "Dabbin' to Greatness" whatever the ridiculous headlines will be. All of that will be fun, but I prefer to focus on the field, and damn are their some amazing battles that will happen in Santa Clara less than two weeks from today.

Thomas Davis Vs. A Broken Arm
I'll mostly be looking at specific match-ups, but I need to talk about TD first. Like most of you, I want nothing more than to see #58 play in the Super Bowl just two weeks after breaking his arm. He is one of the best guys in football, and he's also one of the most talented linebackers in the league. A few plays before his injury, he read a toss to David Johnson, shed a block, and tackled him for a huge loss. Look it up if you have time, I'm sure it won't be hard to find because it was spectacular. I don't know any other player in the league that makes that tackle, apart from maybe the guy he plays beside. He's an incredible player, and it would be a treat for any and every fan to see him play in the Super Bowl.

Luke Kuechly Vs. Peyton Manning
This is the match-up I'm most looking forward too. I know, it's not as straight forward as the other ones, Kuechly will have a big impact in the run game and Peyton won't target Luke that often. What I'm looking forward to is the pre snap reads, and the games best middle linebacker leading his defense against probably the smartest player in NFL history. LK is the leader of one of the best defenses in the NFL this season, and he's an incredible smart player too. Even though Peyton doesn't make as many pre-snap adjustments as he would in past years, he is still one of the best at finding the holes in your defense, and for Kuechly, he has to make sure that his defense limits the mistakes they make or Manning even in his current state will make them pay. Sidebar, it would be cool to see Kuechly go three straight games with a pick-6.

Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei Vs. Interior Broncos Offensive Line
Apart from Carolina's linebackers, their defensive tackles are what make this defense go. Short has been nothing short of spectacular this season, and Lotulelei has been great in his own right when healthy. Denver doesn't have the strongest offensive line, and there is a lot of potential here for KS and SL to have a field day. To counteract what I'm expecting to be a lot of interior pressure on Manning, they will have to get the run game going early or Manning will have to rely on a lot of quick throws. I'd expect some screens because avoiding the middle of the field should be a priority in the pass game.

Emmanuel Sanders Vs. Robert McClain
This is a bit of an assumption on my part, but I'm expecting Josh Norman to shadow Demaryius Thomas and McClain to mostly guard Sanders. If so, Sanders has a chance at having a big day. From what I've seen of McClain this year (granted not too much), he's been solid; but I'm of the belief that Emmanuel Sanders is actually the best Broncos receiver. He may not have the size or reputation of Thomas, but his route running and reliability, to go along with athletic ability makes him really stand out. If Peyton is going to try and attack a specific part of this Carolina defense, this is where I expect him to look. Sanders can win this battle and unless you're always double teaming him (which brings up other problems throughout the defense) then he will have his shot at a monster day. It just comes down to can Peyton get him the ball, and I think he can.

Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware Vs. Panthers Offensive Tackles
For whoever witnessed the brutality that Ware and Miller laid down against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, I don't have to go into detail about how good these two are. The Panthers O-line has been really good as a group this year, and they have studs in the middle (Norwell, Kalil and Turner), but Cam Newton has made up for a lot of insufficiencies at tackle. I was completely wrong about Oher this season, as he has more than held his own at tackle, but in pass protection, he still hasn't been the ideal LT. Miller and Ware punished a QB who is known for getting rid of the ball as quickly as possible (among other things). If Carolina doesn't give their tackles help in pass protection, whether that's with TE's or running back's chip blocking, then Cam could be in real trouble.

Broncos Front 7 Vs. Panthers Run Game
Cam Newton plays a huge role in the success of Carolina's run game. This shouldn't come as a surprise to anybody. But between Malik Jackson, Sylvester Williams, Derek Wolfe, Von Miller, Brandon Marshall, Danny Trevathan and DeMarcus Ware, the Broncos have the athletic ability to contain Newton and Stewart. I don't have a ton of analysis on this specific battle, because these are just two terrific groups of players that execute extremely well. The fallout of this battle in the trenches will be huge though. If Carolina can get their run game going early, then their entire offense will open up, and it will allow Mike Shula (Panthers offensive coordinator) to open up the playbook and start to get really creative so he can stifle Denver's defense. On the other side of the spectrum, if Denver shuts down their run game, I can easily see Cam and the offense start to pinch and try and force plays, and when you're facing the best defense in the league you can't force anything or they will make you pay. Whoever wins this battle should have a big advantage in the Super Bowl, and it could be the key to winning.

Peyton Manning Vs. Turnovers
All I can think of is the Seattle Super Bowl a couple years ago. Manning was facing off against a young, hungry defense, and he got killed in the turnover battle. Seattle led the league in takeaways that season, and Carolina leads the league in takeaways this season. The Panthers embarrassed the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Championship game, and it was mostly due to the fact that Arizona couldn't stop themselves from turning the ball over. With that being said, the current Broncos offense has Peyton playing a very safe game. He is making some throws, but they are to the outside in single coverage for the most part, and when he misses he is missing high so the cornerback doesn't have a chance at it. If Peyton is going to miss, that's where you want him to miss. If we get the Peyton Manning of early season, then it's already game over. But if we get the Manning who has played surprisingly well over the past couple weeks, the one who is limiting his mistakes and running a meticulous, take what they give you offense, then this is going to be one hell of a game.

Prediction
I went 2-0 last week, and am now 5-5 in the playoffs. So this is the tie breaker. The spread as of now is CAR -6. This is a really, really tough line. Carolina seems like the easy bet, but Denver has only lost one game by more than 7 points this season, and that was the game against Kansas City where Peyton Manning imploded. As of now, I'm predicting a really close game no matter who ends up on top, so I'll go Denver. If any quarterback can learn from his mistakes, it's Peyton Manning, and I don't see a repeat of Super Bowl 48 happening again. Although if I'm being forced to pick a winner straight up, then I'll go with Carolina.

My Pick: Denver +6

NFL Predictions: Conference Championship Weekend

Last Week: 1-3
Overall: 3-5

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (NE -3) -> Denver Broncos
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -3) -> Carolina Panthers

A couple notes...
- Last week was so close across the board. The three bad picks were all 2 points or less away from being right. Brutal. That's what happens in the playoffs though, most of the games, especially the ones left, are toss ups.
- The Broncos and Patriots game should be great. Not because of Manning or Brady, but because this is the Broncos vs. the Patriots. I predict this game going one of two ways. Either Brady, Belichick and the Patriots blow out Denver, or Denver wins a close one. I'm going with the latter because this is a great defense in Denver. Sure, they gave up a lot of big plays last week against Pittsburgh, and Big Ben was hurt too (although he didn't look it), but they still didn't allow a touchdown. The biggest question mark in this game is Chris Harris. He's playing with a banged up shoulder which will limit his ability to play at the line and press coverage on Julian Edelman. That should be who the Pats queue up on, but Harris is still really talented, and if he can contain Edelman then Denver should win.
- The Cardinals and Panthers is just a game where the two best teams in the NFL this year face off against one another. Two great defenses,  two high scoring offenses, and two elite (you heard me) quarterbacks. The reason why I'm going with Carolina is simple. I have more faith in Cam Newton right now than Carson Palmer. The last few weeks, Carson Palmer hasn't looked great. Against the Packers last week, he made some horrible decisions (his second touchdown was pure luck) and Fitz bailed him out. Although the Panthers struggled in the second half and Cam wasn't asked to do much all game, Cam has been very consistent this entire year, and I think he can pull out the win.
- One more thing, holy shit what a game the Packers and Cardinals had last week! Easily the game of the year for me. The Packers played their asses off, and even with Jeff Janis and Jared Abbrederis as his two top receivers, Aaron Rodgers wowed the entire world once again. The only disappointment on my end is once again the Packers lose in overtime AND Aaron Rodgers doesn't even get a chance to have the ball. Although Larry Fitzgerald put his team on his back. That was two great teams showcasing how tough they are, and I expect both teams to consistently be back in the playoffs as long as each of their respective QB's are healthy.

NFL Predictions: Divisional Round

Last Week: 2-2
Playoff Record: 2-2

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots (NE -5) -> Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -7) -> Arizona Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -1.5) -> Carolina Panthers
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (DEN -7.5) -> Denver Broncos

A couple notes...
- The Pats are banged up. Really banged up. Brady's hurting, Gronk's hurting, Edelman and Amendola are both questionable, and the defense is banged up too. Kansas City's defense is a tough draw for anyone, and unless Edelman is playing, the Pats will struggle to put points on the board. It's tough to pick against the Patriots in the playoffs, and as long as Brady is playing then they have a shot, but they are 2-4 in their last six games and this season has been taking a toll on them. Alex Smith will just need to do what he does best, limit mistakes. No matter who wins it should at least be a close game.
- The NFC just has more exciting games this weekend. Packers vs. Cardinals, Rodgers vs. Palmer, hell yes. Arizona is just the better more complete team in this game though. I think it'll be a lot closer than the blowout a few weeks ago, but Arizona's offensive and defensive talent will be too much for the Packers. The one thing that Green Bay has going for them is they do have Aaron Rodgers. Just like Tom Brady, you can never count Rodgers out. Even looking back at the blowout a few weeks ago too, up until two minutes before the half, Green Bay was completely in the game. If Rodgers turned the Mike Daniels screen into a touchdown, it's 10-10 going into the second half. This should be a very entertaining game, but Arizona is the more complete team.
- So the Seahawks snuck past the wildcard round thanks to a Blair Walsh missed kick, but they are going to have to bring a completely different team to the field if they want to have a shot against the Panthers. Seattle seemed to be missing a beat this past weekend, and Carolina will kick their ass if they play like that again. The Panthers match up pretty well against the Seahawks, with fast athletic linebackers to contain Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. Josh Norman leads a tough Panthers secondary and Wilson will have a hard time beating them. He'll have to rely on his ability to extend plays but this isn't the defense to do that against. Also Greg Olsen has a good matchup against Kam Chancellor. The Seahawks D is still terrific, but Chancellor has been very beatable recently (see Kyle Rudolph in the last series against Minnesota) and Cam Newton's favourite target could have himself a field day. Seattle seems more lucky then good in recent weeks, and they are going up against too good of a team to just be lucky. Give me Carolina.
- Peyton Manning is back! I really, really want Peyton Manning to go out on top with a Super Bowl win, and I'm not a Denver fan. How perfect would that be for one of the all-time greats. Either way, I think Denver beats up on Pittsburgh. Antonio Brown isn't playing Sunday, and Big Ben has a separated shoulder. Oh and the Steelers are going up against the best D in the league (you heard me). If Peyton Manning can be an adequate game manager, then this should be an easy win for Denver.

NFL Predictions: Wildcard Playoff Games

Regular Season Record: 119-129-8

Playoff Record: 0-0

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (KC -3) -> Kansas City Chiefs

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (PIT -2) -> Cincinnati Bengals

Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (SEA -4.5) -> Seattle Seahawks

Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins (WAS -1) -> Washington Redskins

A couple notes...

- The Chiefs and Texans game should be a close one. I think the Texans can somewhat shut down the Chiefs offense, but it comes down to what the Texans can do with their offense. If they can spark something small, even just a couple touchdowns throughout the entire game, then I think they can steal this one. I'm picking the Chiefs though because I think their defense is too good for an injured, weak Texans offense.

- Of course Cincinnati's shot at finally getting a playoff win comes with AJ McCarron at the helm. I think it's going to happen too. AJ McCarron has shown me enough to believe he can get his talented weapons the ball, and that is all that matters. Tyler Eifert will be a HUGE matchup problem for the Steelers, and I expect him to have a monster game. Between Eifert, Green, Jones, Sanu, Bernard and Hill, they should be able to put up some points on a weak Steelers defense. Now I don't feel safe betting on McCarron over Roethlisberger, but Big Ben hasn't been as sharp as his usual self over these past few weeks, and with no running game now that DeAngelo Williams is out, the Bengals can cue on Antonio Brown and the Steelers air attack, which is why I think they'll pull this one out.

- Seattle matches up terrifically against Minnesota. Really there is nothing else to it. The Vikings have had a really hard time keeping Bridgwater upright all season, and between Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett, Seattle will dial up the pressure without even having to blitz. This game will come down to Teddy Bridgewater being able to make plays against one of the best defenses in the league (and the best run defense too), and I don't know if I like those odds. Granted, this game becomes a lot closer when you look at the other side of the ball, because Marshawn Lynch is out for the game, and Russell Wilson will have to make plays against a very, very good Minnesota defense. I still take Seattle, but this should be a very entertaining, very defensive game.

- The Green Bay-Washington game really intrigues me, but just based off of how both of these teams have been playing in recent weeks, I can't pick the Packers. Kirk Cousins has been terrific in the second half of the season, and I don't know if the Packers have enough of an answer for Jordan Reed even given their versatile secondary. Washington should be able to score enough points that the Packers will need a good day on offense to win, and I just don't think they can get that from an offense that can't create separation in the passing game and also has a very inconsistent run game. I never would have imagined in the preseason I would be taking Washington over Green Bay in the playoffs, but here we are.

NFL Predictions: Week 17

Last week of the regular season. I'll need a miracle to break even on the year, but hopefully I can at least end on a high note.

Last Week: 8-8
Overall: 113-120-7

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (NYJ -3) -> New York Jets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -10.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (NE -10) -> New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -9.5) -> Cincinnati Bengals
New Orleans Saints @ Atlants Falcons (ATL -5.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (HOU -6.5) -> Houston Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (PIT -11) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -7) -> Oakland Raiders
Tennessee Titans @ Indianpolis Colts (IND -6) -> Tennessee Titans
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (WAS -4) -> Washington Redskins
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (EVEN) -> Detroit Lions
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (NYG -5) -> New York Giants
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos (DEN -9) -> San Diego Chargers
St. Louis Rams @ San Fransisco 49ers (STL -3.5) -> St. Louis Rams
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -6.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (GB -3) -> Green Bay Packers

A couple notes...
- Part of me wants to bet on all the 9 outcomes that would get the Colts to the playoffs, but I just can't bring myself to do that... Still rooting for that to happen though.
- The last week of the season is one of the toughest weeks to bet on because depending on the score in certain games teams sometimes pull their starters and play more conservative, which screws with the spread.
- The Colts are in a position where best case scenario Charlie "Clipboard Jesus" Whitehurst is their starter. Best case. That's just ridiculous. The Titans have not been playing good football this entire year, but they should keep it close and could easily pull off the upset.
-The Chiefs have been playing really good football, but it hasn't been because of their offense. Oakland is a young talented team that overall has played well this year, I think they should keep it close enough to cover the spread.
- I'm still shocked that Pittsburgh lost to Baltimore. Either way I feel comfortable going in on Big Ben having a big game against the Browns. On top of that, for the 4th straight year, Cleveland is starting their 3rd string QB in the last week of the season, so that's hilarious.
- Hell yeah, Seattle @ Arizona and Minnesota @ Green Bay to close out this football season. I don't feel overly confident in either of my picks for those games, but that should be some entertaining football.
- Lock of the Week: Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys. I'm absolutely stunned that I think Washington is a lock, but this is what this season has come down to. Captain Kirk has been terrific throughout the second half of the season and Dallas has not. Simple as that.
- Upset of the Week: San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos. None of my "upsets" are games where I think the underdog is actually going to flat out win, I just think they will cover the spread. I feel pretty good about this game being a close one. Pretty much every team has been able to keep it close with the Broncos this season (except the Packers and San Diego the first game), and the Broncos only scored 17 points the first game too. Just based off of that, I think San Diego should have a better output against a slightly more vulnerable Broncos defense (still elite, they just haven't been shutting down opponents recently).

NFL Predictions: Week 16

Last Week: 7-8-1
Overall: 105-112-7

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (OAK -5.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -3) ->  Washington Redskins
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -5.5) -> Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -3) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (CAR -7) -> Carolina Panthers
Dallas Cowboys @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -6) -> Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints (NO -3.5) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
San Fransisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions (DET -9.5) -> Detroit Lions
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -11) -> Kansas City Chiefs
Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -2.5) -> Indianapolis Colts
New England Patriots @ New York Jets (NE -3) -> New England Patriots
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -4.5) -> Houston Texans
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -4.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -13.5) -> St. Louis Rams
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (PIT -10) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos (DEN -3.5) -> Denver Broncos

A couple notes...
- Charles Woodson's last game in Oakland. He is the GOAT of defensive backs. That's my take, feel free to disagree, but he is a surefire Hall-of-Famer and a legend.
- The Washington Redskins will probably be your 2015 NFC East champs. That's weird. I don't know if I like that... But they have been the best team in the Tony Romo-less division, and deserve it more than the Eagles, Giants and 'Boys.
- Why do I keep picking Jacksonville? I love their offense and the spreads are usually pretty enticing. Oh well, two weeks left in the regular season and I am definitely going down with this ship. Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson, I'll take that all day especially if he's lined up against Brandon Browner at all. Also Brees may be out so that makes it even better.
- The Colts without Luck against the Dolphins. This has all the makings of a really ugly game. Ugh, I'll take the Colts I guess. With that being said I want no part of this game for betting purposes.
- Packers @ Cardinals, oh hell yeah! As a football fan I love it. This should be a terrific game. Every logical part of my mind says go Cardinals, but at the same time, it seems like a game where Aaron Rodgers will remind all of us why he is the best player in the world, and that nothing can stop him, not even mediocre (at best) weapons and going up against a great defense. Still picking the Cardinals, but I'm not that confident.
- Another great game between the Bengals and Broncos, but this one is less about two great QB's facing off against one another. This is about two deep rosters, and two great defenses. Nevertheless a terrific game ahead, and I'll take the team with the slightly better QB and more opportunistic defense.
- Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens. Pittsburgh just torched the Broncos defense, so I'm pretty sure they will find a way to score a few points against the injury riddled Ravens defense. Big Ben + Antonio Brown = Touchdowns. Simple math.
- Upset of the Week: St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks. The Rams probably won't win this game. But 13.5 points is a big spread, and Jeff Fisher coached teams weirdly play better against good teams. They have faired well against Seattle in recent years, and the Seahawks demolition on offense will start to die down sooner or later. on top of that, the Rams offense consists of Gurley, Gurley and more Gurley, which could keep Seattle's offense off the field and keep the score relatively close.

NFL Predictions: Week 15

Last week: 7-9
Overall: 98-104-6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ St. Louis Rams (STL -2.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys (NYJ -3) -> New York Jets
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -5.5) -> Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX -3) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -1) -> Houston Texans
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens (KC -7.5) -> Kansas City Chiefs
Buffalo Bills @ Washington Redskins (BUF -1) -> Buffalo Bills
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots (NE -14) -> New England Patriots
Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles (ARI -3.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (CAR -5) -> Carolina Panthers
Cleveland Browns @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -14.5) -> Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay Packers @ Oakland Raiders (GB -3) -> Oakland Raiders
Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers (SD -1.5) -> Miami Dolphins
Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -6.5) -> Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Fransisco 49ers (CIN -4.5) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints (NO -3.5) -> New Orleans Saints

A couple notes...
- Definitely an entertaining Thursday night game, but the St. Louis still doesn't have a QB. I'm going to have a hard time picking them to win especially when they go up against a team with a good young quarterback like Jameis Winston.
- I thought Tennessee would keep it close with the Jets last week. I was very, very wrong. And frankly, without Romo, Dallas isn't that much better off then the Titans. I'll take the Jets.
- What is going on Falcons? I'm sure they're asking themselves those same questions. Matt Ryan hasn't been good all season, even when they were winning, but now they are just spiralling. I like the Jags. I probably take them way too much, but they're a fun team, and I genuinely like their offense. Putting up 50 in one of Bortles weaker games can also help with my view on them too.
- The Patriots and Seattle both have brutal lines, but I still have no confidence in either the Titans or Browns to keep it at all close. Part of me wants the Browns to beat Seattle because the narrative with Manziel would be hilarious after that, but let's be realistic, these are two blowouts waiting to happen.
- Two amazing games this week; Green Bay @ Oakland, and Denver @ Pittsburgh. I think Oakland will take a close shootout of a game, and I think Denver will keep it close with Pittsburgh but end up losing. I can't wait to see the Steelers offense going up against the Broncos defense. That is just elite football right there.
- Another great game is Arizona @ Philadelphia. Are the Eagles a great team right now? No, but they're playing with a sense of urgency that was missing earlier this season. Arizona also looked more vulnerable then they have most of the year against Minnesota last Thursday night. Arizona will still give Bradford a tough time, which is why I'm taking the Cardinals.
- Lock of the Week: Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants. OBJ will be Norman's toughest test of the year, but apart from that battle, Carolina lines up terrifically with the rest of a mediocre Giants roster. The Panthers offense will be way to much for a lacklustre Giants defense to handle, and the Panthers will be one step closer to an undefeated season. The only thing that worries me is that they are the Giants and they know a thing or two about breaking up undefeated seasons.
- Upset of the Week: Green Bay Packers @ Oakland Raiders. Do I think Green Bay's season is looking up? Yeah. Was it right to give Mike McCarthy play-calling duties back? Definitely. Should they be considered a real Super Bowl contender? They're getting there. With all this being said, Oakland is a very talented team. Their offense is a huge threat to any team, and while I think this should be a really high scoring affair, and a very close game, Oakland playing at home tilts it a little in their favor for me.

NFL Predictions: Week 14

Damn... A few bad weeks have caught up to me, and I'm below .500 once again. Nothing comes easy in football, and apparently that holds true with predicting football too. Close predictions with the Giants and Miami would have left me .500 if I won them both, but that's how it goes. Hopefully I'm in for a better week. On the bright side though, holy hell what an amazing finish on Thursday Night Football last week!
Last Week: 6-10
Overall: 91-95-6

Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -10) -> Arizona Cardinals
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -2.5) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles (BUF -1) -> Buffalo Bills
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -8.5) -> Carolina Panthers
San Fransisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns (CLE -1.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers
Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears (CHI -3.5) -> Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions @ St. Louis Rams (DET -2.5) -> Detroit Lions
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -10) -> Kansas City Chiefs
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -4) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX -1) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets (NYJ -7) -> Tennessee Titans
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans (NE -3.5) -> New England Patriots
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (DEN -7.5) -> Denver Broncos
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (GB -7) -> Green Bay Packers
Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens (SEA -10) -> Seattle Seahawks
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins (NYG -1) -> New York Giants

A couple notes...
- Unless the spread is absolutely insane, I'm going with the Panthers the rest of the season. I think this team has a great shot at 16-0, and frankly I want to see it happen. Facing New Orleans on the road should be there toughest game for the rest of the season (I know, crazy soft schedule to end a year), and facing Atlanta 2 times, along with Tampa Bay and the Giants once is a winnable schedule for the best team in football now. Give me the Panthers.
- Lock of the Week: Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers. This is a really boring pick, but Carolina is a great football team and Atlanta right now is not a good football team. No need to complicate things, this is the state of these two teams.
- Upset of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals. I took a flyer on the Colts against the Steelers as they were playing really well going into last week. Then the Steelers decimated them in all facets of the game. Give me the Steelers as the underdogs as I don't think anybody can stop their offense right now. Big Ben is so hot right now... (queue Will Ferrell Zoolander meme)
- Speaking of that Pittsburgh/Indianapolis game last week, give me the Jags. As long as Luck is out, this is a flawed team. Sure they'll have their fair share of decent performances, but the inconsistency is to much for me to bet on them upsetting a very good Jags offense right now (their defense is another story).
- Non-picks related, the Bills/Eagles game is going to have huge implications on the playoff picture in the NFL. Should be a must watch this week, even if both teams have been very inconsistent this year.
- I finally got a Green Bay pick right, but I probably shouldn't have. That was an insane win, and looking at the big picture, it wasn't a great team performance considering how they started. Nevertheless, they should still be able to handily beat a Dallas team without Romo at home; I don't care that Dallas just beat Washington either.
- There's a reason I'm always so tentative choosing Washington to win and it's because they are so damn inconsistent. Any given week they can beat a good team or lose to a bad team, it's basically a coin flip.
- This Thursday night is a game between two good teams, but Minnesota is really hurting. Missing the best player on all three levels of their defense will cripple their ability to stop Arizona's potent offense. I do wish the spread was a little lower, but either way I'm taking Arizona.

NFL Predictions: Week 13

Back to .500. Started off the week well, and then missed on both 4 pm games, the Sunday Night Football game, and Monday night too. Football is a cruel, cruel mistress and I love it.
Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 85-85-6

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (GB -3) -> Green Bay Packers
San Fransisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears (CHI -7) -> Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (CIN -9.5) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -2.5) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -3) -> Houston Texans
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -4) -> Miami Dolphins
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (CAR -7) -> Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (Even) -> Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (ARI -6) -> Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -1.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
New York Jets @ New York Giants (NYJ -2) -> New York Giants
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (DEN -4) -> Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (KC -3) -> Kansas City Chiefs
Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots (NE -9.5) -> New England Patriots
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -7) -> Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (WAS -4.5) -> Washington Redskins

A couple notes...
- Why does Green Bay do this to me every single week... I have absolutely no confidence that they will win this Thursday, but I don't have any confidence that Detroit will either. The Packers have been "in" every game this year, except for the Broncos, until the last minute, and the loss against the Lions at home was a botched kick, the loss to the Bears was an absolute brutal game for their wide receivers, and Carolina was actually almost a pretty impressive comeback for that GB offense. I don't think they are as bad offensively as they have been so far this year, and as long as they have Aaron Rodgers then I will keep betting for them.
- Da Bears are lacking talent, but damn are they a well coached team. John Fox should be up for coach of the year because of how well he is getting his guys to play. I'll take the Bears at home against the 49ers even if the spread is a touchdown.
- Houston and Kansas City are two teams trending up, and I'm probably taking both of these teams until they lose.
- Lock of the Week: Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints. Are the Panthers going 16-0 this year? Probably not, but they will be 12-0 after this week. Cam is going to torch a weak Saints defense, and Carolina's D will pounce on a saints offense that has struggled in the past couple weeks.
- Upset of the Week: Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers. The Colts are playing inspired under Hasselback, and Roethlisberger may not even play. Even if he does end up playing, this isn't a walk in the park for the Steelers as the Colts have won 3 straight games against pretty solid teams.
- Seattle vs. Minnesota should be a great game. Normally I'll take the home team in a toss up, but Seattle, and more importantly Russell Wilson, has been playing really well lately, so give me the Seahawks.
-

NFL Predictions: Week 12

Better week, and now we have Thanksgiving Day to get this up. Hopefully I can finally get a Green Bay game right again after 4 weeks of missing on it. 
Last Week: 8-5-1
Overall: 78-76-6

Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions (DET -3) -> Detroit Lions
Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys (Even) -> Carolina Panthers
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (GB -8) -> Green Bay Packers
New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans (HOU -3) -> Houston Texans
Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -1) -> Minnesota Vikings
St. Louis Rams @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -9) -> St. Louis Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -3) -> Indianapolis Colts
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins (NYG -2.5) -> New York Giants
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans (OAK -2) -> Oakland Raiders
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -6.5) -> Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (NYJ -3.5) -> New York Jets
San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX -4) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Arizona Cardinals @ San Fransisco 49ers (ARI -10.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -4) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (NE -3) -> New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (CLE -3) -> Cleveland Browns

A couple notes...
- I do think it's disrespectful to have the Panthers even with the Cowboys. I don't think they should be major favourites, but 3 or 4 points seems reasonable even with Romo back. It Should be a great game, but Cam has been playing incredibly and that defense is for real, so I lean the Panthers way.
- Minnesota and Atlanta, two teams I can't really figure out, but I''m going to give it up to Minnesota even though they are on the road.
- I'm disappointed Manziel isn't starting, just as a football fan he is way more fun to watch then McCown.
- Buffalo vs. KC should actually be a pretty enjoyable game. I think it will be a closer game than people seem to think, but Kansas City is the superior team in this game and they are at home. Expect a defensive battle with KC winning.
- Upset of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is a good team, but they are far from great. They also don't have the same home field advantage as they used to have, and Big Ben is just too good for their team to shut down, so if they are going to win, it will fall onto Russell Wilson's shoulders, which isn't the best thing to bet on this year.
- Lock of the Week: Dare I say it. Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers. I know, I know. It's dangerous to pick the Packers as a lock after just two weeks ago they lost to the Lions at home. My logic is there is no way they're going to lose to the Lions and Bears at home in the same year. Right? RIGHT?
- The greatest holiday of the year is this Thursday... All day football! So enjoy!

NFL Predictions: Week 11

Two consecutive bad weeks. All of the supposed "blowout" games last week were either upsets or extremely close. Hopefully this week can break the streak and get us back above .500. Hopefully...
Last Week: 5-9
Overall: 70-71-5

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX -3) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -7) -> Carolina Panthers
Oakland Raiders @ Detroit Lions (OAK -1.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins (Even) -> Dallas Cowboys
Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -6) -> Atlanta Falcons
St. Louis Rams @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -2.5) -> St. Louis Rams
New York Jets @ Houston Texans (NYJ -2.5) -> Houston Texans
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -1) -> Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -5.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears (CHI -1) -> Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -5) -> Arizona Cardinals
San Fransisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -12.5) -> Seattle Seahawks
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers (KC -3) -> Kansas City Chiefs
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (NE -7) -> New England Patriots

A couple notes...
- The Seattle San Fran game is probably the hardest pick this week. The spread seems insane, but Seattle is still a tough team to beat at home and San Fran on the road has been so, so bad this year. I'm picking Seattle even with the crazy spread, but I won't be shocked in the slightest if San Fran keeps it close or even if they somehow win after their bye week.
- So I think the smartest thing for me to do is to pick against Green Bay until they figure their shit out. Last game was awful. Denver and Carolina were rough, but they are at least good teams. Detroit is not, and it was so bad. Minnesota at home after 5 wins in a row, that's going to be a tough one for Green Bay.
- I am weirdly on board for the Jaguars and Titans game on Thursday. Should be very entertaining. I think Jacksonville might be able to actually blow this one out, but I've been high on the Jags all year so who knows.
- Cincinnati vs. Arizona should be incredible. Game of the week potential here, and the trash talking has already started too. I don't think Cincinnati was necessarily exposed on Monday night against the Texans, but they'll definitely have to up their game A LOT to beat the Cardinals on the road.
- Romo's back! I'm not a Cowboys fan but it's just good for football to have one of the ore underrated QB's back healthy. Should be able to beat a lacklustre Dolphins squad.
- Upset of the Week: Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears. Chicago is a substantially better team then I thought, but this is still Denver we're talking about. Manning is out, which might end up being good for them. As long as Osweiler doesn't put them in an enormous hole, this defense will find a way to win.
- Lock of the Week: Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers. Carolina is a great team, and I am completely on board. Washington has it's moments, but they capitalized on a very weak New Orleans defense and aren't that good. Carolina should handily beat them, and Carolina's defense should absolutely eat up Kirk Cousins and an inconsistent offense.

NFL Predictions: Week 10

Ugh, brutal week. This has to be a week where I revisit my outlooks on teams, as there were a handful of teams in which I am completely baffled by week-in/week-out. So much inconsistency out of teams this year, but that's what the NFL is. Hopefully I can bounce back from a rough week 9.
Week: 5-8
Overall: 65-62-5

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (NYJ -2.5) -> New York Jets
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (GB -11.5) -> Green Bay Packers
Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -1.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers @ Tennessee Titans (CAR -4.5) -> Carolina Panthers
Chicago Bears @ St. Louis Rams (STL -7.5) -> Chicago Bears
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins (NO -1) -> New Orleans Saints
Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -6.5) -> Philadelphia Eagles
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -5.5) -> Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -5.5) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Minnesota Vikings @ Oakland Raiders (OAK -3.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (DEN -6.5) -> Denver Broncos
New England Patriots @ New York Giants (NE -7) -> New England Patriots
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -3) -> Arizona Cardinals
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -11) -> Cincinnati Bengals

A couple notes...
- I have no idea what to think of the Saints, but when it comes down to it, I would still be surprised if they lose to Washington. Should be a high scoring game, but I think the Saints pull away with this one.
- Green Bay is in desperate need of a win, and it doesn't get much easier than facing the 1-7 Lions at home. Lambeau Field should provide some life into this Green Bay team after two tough losses to two great teams on the road, and I predict Rodgers to absolutely light up a struggling Lions defense.
- Carolina, New England and Cincinnati all have fairly easy games this week and should continue their undefeated seasons going into week 11 (although everybody always loves a Patriots Giants grudge match).
- Upset of the Week: Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks. This is also my game of the week, as these two teams should feel a sense of urgency in this game, as Arizona is now fighting for a first round bye with Green Bay, and winning in Seattle would go a long way to help that, and Seattle is a few more losses away from being ousted from playoff contention all together. Seattle feels like they've lost their home field dominance (see game versus Lions, one extremely close play and they lose to the worst team in the NFL) and Arizona is a more complete, talented team.
- Lock of the Week: Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers. I explained it above, but Rodgers is going to blow up Detroit's defense, and a struggling Lions offense is just what this Packers D needs to regain it's early season form.
- With Big Ben out, I think Cleveland will be able to keep it close with the Steelers. Although I still think it's ridiculous the Browns aren't playing Manziel, McCown has been good this year and he should outplay Landry Jones.
- Kansas City seems like a team to play Denver well (west coast offense, which alleviates pressure from the QB by getting the ball out of his hands quickly) but Denver is just too good. If Manning has an okay game, this one shouldn't be that close.

NFL Predictions: Week 9

Not a bad week, but four huge misses with the Packers, Jets, Lions and Titans all losing by a lot. Still solid, and next week there are some good spreads so hopefully we can pick up some momentum with a winning week.
Last Week: 6-6-2
Overall: 60-54-5

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -12) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -4.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (NYJ -7.5) -> New York Jets
St. Louis Rams @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -2) -> Minnesota Vikings
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -3) -> Miami Dolphins
Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints (NO -8) -> New Orleans Saints
Washington Redskins @ New England Patriots (NE -14) -> New England Patriots
Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers (GB -2.5) -> Green Bay Packers
Atlanta Falcons @ San Fransisco 49ers (ATL -7) -> Atlanta Falcons
New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NYG -2.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts (DEN -5) -> Denver Broncos
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (PHI -2.5) -> Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Bears @ San Diego Chargers (SD -4) -> San Diego Chargers

A couple notes...
- I haven't been able to get a Falcons pick right for a few weeks now, but San Fransisco has been atrocious as of late, so I think the Falcons should pull through this week and cover the spread.
- Oakland vs. Pittsburgh should be a great game, as the Raiders have proven to me that they are for real. I think this game will end up being a toss up, as both these teams have great offenses, but it should be close between them.
- The undefeated Bengals against Johnny F****** Football in week 9 on Thursday night. Just like we all drew up this past offseason right? Should be a slaughter by the Bengals, but for some reason that makes me think it will be close. Still putting my money on Cincinnati though.
- Green Bay vs. Carolina, hell yeah! That's what Sunday's should be. I'm expecting Green Bay to come out and try and punch Carolina in the mouth. Mainly so they can get the taste of blood out of their respective mouth's after Denver destroyed them in all facets of the game. Either way, two great teams facing off is what every football fan should want.
- Speaking of marquee games, the undefeated Broncos are facing off against the struggling Colts, but Manning is on the verge of breaking a huge record (passing yards), and it seems fitting that he would do it against his old team.
- Another toss-up for me, St. Louis against Minnesota, should be a hard hitting game. St. Louis' D-line matches up extremely well against Minnesota's O-line, but I think Minnesota's D is more well-rounded and will feast on Nick Foles. They're also at home, so that makes me lean there way. Either way, Gurley vs. Peterson should be incredibly exciting.

NFL Predictions: Week 8

So close... I was so close to an 11-3 week, come on Atlanta and Arizona, cover the spread! Oh well. I'm coming off of a good week, and hopefully I can keep that up in week 8.
Last Week: 9-5
Overall: 54-48-3

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (NE -8) -> New England Patriots
Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs (London) (KC -5) -> Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (CHI -1) -> Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -7) -> Atlanta Falcons
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints (NO -3) -> New Orleans Saints
San Fransisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams (STL -8) -> St. Louis Rams
Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns (ARI -4.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -1) -> Cincinnati Bengals
San Diego Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -3) -> San Diego Chargers
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (HOU -4) -> Tennessee Titans
New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders (NYJ -2.5) -> New York Jets
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (SEA -6) -> Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos (GB -3) -> Green Bay Packers
Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -7) -> Indianapolis Colts

A couple notes...
- Very interesting Thursday Night Football game. Miami has been playing with a sense of urgency that we didn't see under Joe Philbin, and they have a lot of momentum on their side. They've been playing good defense, and have a new found running game too. Historically, defense and running the football have been keys to winning on short weeks, but they run into New England at home as well as Bill Belichick who doesn't take too kindly to rookie coaches. He's on an 11-0 streak against rookie coaches and I think that will be extended this week.
- I don't know how Chicago is favoured, but okay, I'll take that all day long.
- Cincinnati and Pittsburgh is another terrific game. Big Ben is coming back, but the Bengals have been on fire. It should be a close one but I think Cincinnati picks up the win in a shootout.
- My vote for game of the week will go to the Packers and Broncos. Both coming off of bye weeks, the Packers offense got healthier and both are undefeated. I do think that Green Bay will win, but not because of Rodgers this week. Green Bay's defense has been quietly incredible this year, and Manning is hurting. All Rodgers has to do is limit the mistakes against the best defense in the league this year, and Green Bay should be 7-0 after this week.
- I'm also taking Detroit after the change in offensive coordinator. Surprise me Detroit, surprise me.
- The Jets vs. the Raiders should be a great game too. A very talented young offense in Oakland, and an extremely talented young defense in New York. It's a good week for football folks.
- Lock of the Week: Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears. This is a tough one, as Adrian Peterson is banged up, but Chicago is just not as talented as Minnesota. Mike Zimmer will bring the heat against Jay Cutler, and Minnesota should capitalize, especially if Peterson plays well.
- Upset of the Week: Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans. Houston is bad. They are just flat out bad. Both of these teams are bad, but Houston shouldn't have a 4 point advantage, so I'm going with Tennessee who kept it close with Atlanta last week.
- Apparently I'm just a masochist when it comes to the Colts. I won't give up on Luck. I actually still think the Panthers are going to win this game, but it will be close. Cam Newton has been terrific, but there offense isn't built to put up points against teams like the Pats offense is. Luck hasn't been good this year, but he is still a very talented quarterback and at some point it should turn around. The deciding factor for this game will be the Colts O-line against the Panthers D-line. I don't expect the Colts O-line to win that matchup, but if they can be solid for some of the game, the Colts have a chance.

NFL Predictions: Week 7

Interesting week last week. Just in general a great week of football, and I picked a great upset for Seattle and Carolina but I am absolutely shocked at the outcome of Arizona and Pittsburgh. Shocked. Martavis Bryant is a game changer.
Last Week: 7-6-1
Overall: 45-43-3

Seattle Seahawks @ San Fransisco 49ers (SEA -6.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars (BUF -4) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland Browns @ St. Louis Rams (STL -6) -> St. Louis Rams
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (PIT -2.5) -> Kansas City Chiefs
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -4) -> Miami Dolphins
New York Jets @ New England Patriots (NE -9) -> New York Jets
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (MIN -2.5) -> Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans (ATL -4.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins (WAS -3.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -4.5) -> Indianapolis Colts
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers (SD -4) -> San Diego Chargers
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (NYG -3.5) -> New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panther (CAR -3) -> Carolina Panthers

Baltimore Ravens @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -9) -> Arizona Cardinals

A couple notes...
- I'm predicting a lot of upsets against the spread this week. I'm going with my gut and I think there will actually be a lot of close games this week.
- I don't think Seattle will lose to San Fransisco, but I think they will win by less than a touchdown.
- Jacksonville is going to keep it close with Tyrod Taylor out, and they even have a shot at winning if Bortles is on his game.
- The Rams are going to have a huge week behind a monster game from Todd Gurley. Coming off of a bye week, the Rams should be in a good position to hold off the Cleveland Browns shockingly solid passing attack and come away with a big win.
- Both the Pats and Panthers should come out with wins this week, although I think the Jets and Pats game will be really close.
- Lock of the Week: Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans. The Falcons are coming off of a loss so I think they should have a fire lit under them against a struggling Titans squad.
- Upset of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs. KC has been really struggling, and many are calling for a switch at QB, but I just can't see them losing to a Steelers squad led by Landry Jones.

NFL Predictions: Week 6

That was a pretty crazy week. I got a lot of the teams right, most of them actually, but I missed some of the spreads by as close as 1.5 points. I still leave week 5 with a record above .500, and some momentum having not had a negative week since week 2.
Last Week: 7-6-1
Overall: 38-37-2

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (ATL -3.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns (Den -4) -> Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills (CIN -3.5) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -4) -> Minnesota Vikings
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC -1) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (DET -3) -> Detroit Lions
Washington Redskins @ New York Jets (NYJ -6) -> New York Jets
Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (ARI -3.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -2.5) -> Miami Dolphins
Carolina Panthers@ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -7) -> Carolina Panthers
San Diego Chargers @ Green Bay Packer (GB -10.5) -> Green Bay Packers
Baltimore Ravens @ San Fransisco 49ers (BAL -2.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers
New England Patriots @ Indianpolis Colts (NE -10) -> New England Patriots
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -4) -> Philadelphia Eagles

A couple notes....
- Am I crazy to think Seattle has just kind of lost it? They're still a good team, but they don't have that same X-factor or whatever it was that they had the last couple years. They never would have lost a seventeen point lead in the 4th quarter last year or two years ago. I think this game will be close, but I actually think Carolina has a good shot to beat Seattle at home.
- Lock of the Week: Denver @ Cleveland. This one just seems to be served on a silver platter. I get it, Josh McCown is coming off of a great week, but there is a difference between the injury plagued Ravens defense, and this Broncos defense. They are decimating way better quarterbacks than Josh McCown, and this game will only be close if the Broncos offense can't put points on the board.  Even still, only 4 points? I'll take it.
- Upset of the Week: Carolina @ Seattle is clearly the upset of the week, but because I already went over that, I'll talk about Miami @ Tennessee. The Dolphins have a new coach, and a new philosophy: Get Tough. They ran the Oklahoma drill in their first practice, and even though I doubt they are going to be able to turn the season around, the Titans are a beatable team even for the struggling Miami Dolphins. Off a bye week, I'm expecting to see some sort of life out of these Miami Dolphins.
- One more thing, why is Arizona and Pittsburgh so close? Are people really expecting Big Ben to play? Even if he does, have people been watching the 2015 Arizona Cardinals? This is a team that is running shop through everybody they face (barring the St. Louis Rams for some strange reason). This is another lock of the week, as it just seems like free money.

NFL Predictions: Week 5

Back to .500! After the hole I dug myself in the first week, I'm back with a vengeance and on a bit of a streak. Two solid upset picks against the points with Minnesota keeping it close against Denver and Detroit keeping it very close against Seattle. Hopefully I can keep it up this week.
Last Week: 8-6-1
Total Record: 31-31-1

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (HOU -4.5) -> Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -3) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans (BUF -2.5) -> Buffalo Bills
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -6.5) -> Baltimore Ravens
Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -7.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -9.5) -> Chicago Bears
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -4.5) -> Philadelphia Eagles
St. Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers (GB -9) -> Green bay Packers
Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -3) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions (ARI -2.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys (NE -9) -> New England Patriots
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (DEN -5) -> Denver Broncos
San Fransisco 49ers @ New York Giants (NYG -7) -> San Fransisco 49ers
Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Diego Chargers (SD -3) -> San Diego Chargers

A couple notes...
- Luck isn't playing tonight, makes the Houston game easier, but the Texans have been dreadful on offense this year. Tough one either way.
- Lock of the Week: Give me the Cincinnati Bengals. I have been so unimpressed with the Seahawks at the start of this season, and it took me awhile but I am firmly on this Bengals bandwagon. Cincinnati is a great team, and their strengths can take advantage of Seattle's weaknesses. They're a much better team then the Detroit Lions and they should handily win against a Seattle team that has struggled to achieve any success on offense this year. Honorable mention: Denver against Oakland.
- Upset of the Week: Jacksonville Jaguars. Once again I'm picking the Jaguars in an upset, and hopefully I can be right for the second time too. Tampa Bay is a young team, and Jameis will make his fair share of mistakes, so Jacksonville just needs to capitalize on that. Blake Bortles has been much better this season, and their team as a whole is playing more sound football. Should be a competitive game between two young teams but I think Jacksonville is just better.
- There are a lot of lopsided games this week, as the Packers, Patriots, Denver, Atlanta and Baltimore should all win handily.
- New Orleans @ Philadelphia should be a terrific game. I clearly am a glutton for punishment when it comes to the Eagles, but I still think they are a good team. Bradford played arguably his best game of the year last week, and it should be very competitive against Drew Brees (if he's healthy) and the Saints.

NFL Predictions: Week 4

Coming off of a terrific week last week, we finally have some momentum with us. We're already almost back to .500, and hopefully this week can push us ahead.
Last week: 12-4
Total Record: 23-25

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (BAL -3) -> Baltimore Ravens
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (in London) (NYJ -1.5) -> New York Jets
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -9) -> Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -6.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (CAR -3) -> Carolina Panthers
New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -5.5) -> Buffalo Bills
Oakland Raiders @ Chicago Bears (OAK -3) -> Oakland Raiders
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (PHI -3) -> Philadelphia Eagles
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -4) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns @ San Diego Chargers (SD -7.5) -> San Diego Chargers
Green Bay Packers @ San Fransisco 49ers (GB -8.5) -> Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos (DEN -6.5) -> Minnesota Vikings
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -7) -> Arizona Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints (NO -4) -> New Orleans Saints
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -10) -> Detroit Lions

A couple notes...
- It's sad that I'm taking the favourite in every game except for Minnesota vs. Denver and Seattle vs. Detroit, but I just can't see any other big possible upsets this week. One more game to keep an eye on is Houston and Atlanta. I wouldn't be surprised if the Texans pull out a victory even on the road.
- Baltimore. Baltimore. Baltimore. The Ravens on Thursday are going to be playing with a sense of urgency, they have to. They're going to have a hard enough time making the playoffs after an 0-3 start, but it's virtually impossible in their division to make it after an 0-4 start. Expect them to show up ready to play Thursday.
- Cleveland vs. San Diego, I want nothing to do with this line. I think San Diego is going to win, but by over a touchdown? I don't feel confident at all in that bet.
- Upset of the Week: Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos. Yes I think that Denver's undefeated streak is going to come to an end, at home, to Mike Zimmer's tough ass defense. He has that D playing hard right now, and Adrian Peterson finally looks like he's back. The wildcard is Teddy Bridgewater. This Denver D is scary good right now, like best in the league good, and Minnesota is going to need Teddy Bridgewater to be smart even with a ground and pound offense led by All Day.
- Lock of the Week: St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals. Arizona is playing like they want to destroy every team in their path, and St. Louis is looking like it will be another casualty this week. The Rams aren't bad, but Arizona at home is just too much, and they will suffocate Nick Foles with Tyrann Mathieu and their D playing the way they are playing.

NFL Predictions: Week 3

Last week was much better as we left with a 7-9 record, but there is still a lot to be desired. I hit a huge upset in the Jacksonville Jaguars/Miami Dolphins game, and my lock of the week stood strong as the Packers overcame the Seahawks. My notes and outlook for the week were much better than my record shows, but we can hopefully build off of that to a winning record for this week.
Last Week: 7-9
Total: 11-21

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (NYG -3.5) -> New York Giants
Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams (PIT -1.5) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
San Diego Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -2.5) -> Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans (HOU -6.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets (NYJ -2) -> Philadelphia Eagles
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-6.5) -> New Orleans Saints
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots (-13.5) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -2.5) -> Baltimore Ravens
Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns (CLE -3.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (IND -3) -> Indianapolis Colts
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys (ATL -1.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -6.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -14.5) -> Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -3) -> Buffalo Bills
Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions (DEN -3) -> Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers (GB -6.5) -> Green Bay Packers

A couple notes...
- I have Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and the Saints all covering the spread, but I still have all three of these teams losing.
- Lock of the Week: Seattle Seahawks. The spread they have is absolutely ridiculous, and even though I think it's more likely the Cardinals or Atlanta Falcons hit their spread, this matchup is just too perfect. The Seahawks have their home opener, with Kam Chancellor back, against the Chicago Bears, arguably one of the worst teams in the NFL. This game would be a disappointment for Seattle if it isn't a blowout.
- Upset of the Week: Philadelphia Eagles. I am going down with this ship. I still believe Chip Kelly is a good coach, and I like what he did this offseason. The Jets are a really tough team and this is more of a gut call than anything, but the Eagles should step up this week, and I predict a big impact from their running game, even against this incredible Jets defensive line.
- Another Packers game at home, should be a solid bet, but Kansas City is a good team, and they have a very good defense.
- Bills vs. Dolphins should be a great game this week, but Buffalo has been flat out outplaying Miami so far this season, and I think Buffalo comes away 2-1 from this.
- Cleveland vs. Oakland is an interesting game, mainly because McCown is playing. I have not been shy about my feelings toward McCown, and I think this will be the game where he officially loses his job to Manziel, as I think Oakland will beat up on Cleveland.
- Another great game should be Cincinnati @ Baltimore. The Ravens are 0-2, the Bengals are 2-0, out of pure desperation I have the Ravens winning this game.