NFL Predictions 2016: Week 7

Last Week: 7-6-2
Overall: 40-50-2

Two pushes is kinda crazy from last week. Football is staying weird though. The Packers are seemingly broken, Seattle had there magic working for them once again, although I stand by it, I think the Falcons are for real (offense anyways). On top of that Cincinnati is sucking, the Jets are done, Carolina seems done too, Dallas is going to have a QB controversy soon (and not a bad one either), Arizona might be back, and Buffalo might be the scariest team in the NFL not named the Patriots right now. What. The. Hell.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (GB -7.5) -> Green Bay Packers
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams (London) (NYG -3) -> New York Giants
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles (MIN -2.5) -> Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -6.5) -> New Orleans Saints
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions (DET -1.5) -> Washington Redskins
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -10) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (BUF -3) -> Buffalo Bills
Oakland Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX -1) -> Oakland Raiders
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -2.5) -> Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets (NYJ -1) -> Baltimore Ravens
San Diego Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -6.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Fransisco 49ers (TB -2) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers (NE -7) -> New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -2) -> Arizona Cardinals
Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos (DEN -7.5) -> Denver Broncos

A couple notes...
- Lock of the Week: I want to start off with this because there are a couple games that I would consider locks this week. I expect New England and Denver to both not only cover, but blow the other teams out of the water. On paper they both seem like very, very easy multi-score wins for these respective teams. New England's one is easy, Pittsburgh is missing Big Ben, and Landry Freaking Jones is their starter. They have a weak defense and Gronk/Brady is just hitting its stride. Denver on the other hand is struggling offensively, but I genuinely expect their defense to outscore Houston's offense. Brock has been awful to start the year, almost as bad as Fitzpatrick, and he is going up against not only one of the best defenses in the league, but also a defense that knows his tendencies. This should be another UGLY Monday Night Football game.
- Upset of the Week: I was surprised at this line too. I don't know how the Jets are favoured. I think Geno will be better than what Fitz has done, but still, that's just saying I don't expect him to throw 6 interceptions. The Ravens are solid, not great, but solid. They are well coached though, and that's more than enough to stomp the Jets in Geno's first start of the year.
- The Packers have looked awful, and are routed by injury, but they are facing the Bears on a  Thursday. The only near certainty is this game is going to be really ugly. They should win, but I don't feel good about the cover.
- Why are Minnesota's lines so damn close? They are better than Philly, and they should win. In Philly. Handily. Mike Zimmer and that defense is a lot to handle for any QB, let alone a rookie (although he has played much, much better than I expected). I'm riding the Vikings hot streak until I see something in them that tells me I shouldn't (I doubt it will be soon).
- The Saints and Chargers are two teams that just seem to stick around in every game. I wanted to pick the Chargers to cover the spread, but I don't know if they have a stout enough defense to contain Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. I wouldn't be surprised if it's close, but Atlanta is going to come out hot after last week.
- Two of my favourite young teams to watch are facing off against each other this week. Indianapolis and Tennessee... I'm kidding, the Raiders and Jags play, and even though both of these teams have been shaky at times this year, I love watching guys like Amari Cooper, Derek Carr, Khalil Mack, Jalen Ramsey, Allen Robinson and Yannick Ngakoue (yes I did google his name to make sure I spelled it correctly). I think Oakland is further along in its development as a team, but the game should be entertaining at the very least. Although it could be a train wreck too, both teams have had their goose eggs this year.
- I'm staying away from the Colts and Titans. Usually when I think it's close, the coaching sways me, but the Chuck Pagano/Mike Mularkey combo just isn't doing it for me. I like betting on the Colts because I love Luck, but time and time again I just see how terrible the rest of his team is (exempt from this is T.Y. Hilton, he's a badass). The Titans have shown flashes recently, and they are the more talented roster, minus QB, but again, Mularkey. I'll just pick them because they're the home team. I don't like it though.
- BOLD PREDICTION: Just a thought, I think the Rams are losing this one, and I think Goff is going to be their week 9 starter. They have a bye in week 8, and it would be the perfect time to make the change. I recognize Keenum had the best game of his career last week against Detroit, but Detroit's defense has been injury riddled and just awful, and Keenum threw a game clinching interception on the last drive to halt any attempt at a comeback. I don't know how likely this is, it is Jeff Fisher we're talking about, but if they have any intention of Goff starting this year it has to be done after this game. We'll see though, it's a very bold prediction and hinges on many factors, but if I was Los Angeles and Goff has shown me enough to assume he'd be okay, then I'm going Goff.

NFL Predictions 2016: Week 6

Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 33-44

Decent week with 2 spreads missed by half a point, so I'll take it. To paraphrase Belichick, on to week 6.

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (DEN -3) -> Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots (NE -9) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants (NYG -3) -> New York Giants
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (CAR -3) -> New Orleans Saints
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins (PIT -7.5) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears (CHI -2.5) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
San Fransisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -9) -> Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions (DET -3) -> Detroit Lions
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -7) -> Tennessee Titans
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (PHI -2.5) -> Washington Redskins
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (KC -1.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -6) -> Atlanta Falcons
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (GB -4) -> Green Bay Packers
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (HOU -3) -> Houston Texans
New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -8) -> Arizona Cardinals

A couple notes...
- I hate betting on San Diego games because of Phillip Rivers. He's the only reason they are competitive (although Joey Bosa is awesome) and it could be close on Thursday. Denver is still the way better team though, and Siemian is back too.
- Pats should win, but 9 points is a ton versus a talented Bengals squad.
- Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins. It seems too easy for me to go lock of the week as any team facing the Browns, so I'll go the Steelers. Their offense has seemed unstoppable since Le'Veon Bell has come back, and Miami does not have the cornerback talent to even hinder Antonio Brown. Give me Pittsburgh all day long.
- Upset of the Week: Kansas City @ Oakland Raiders. Oakland at home against a team that has really struggled to get any pressure on opposing QB's. Should be a close game, but Oakland has too much talent on offense. Derek Carr would need to have a really poor game for Oakland to lose.
- Seattle vs. Atlanta is going to be an awesome game. I'm buying into Atlanta after last week, Matt Ryan has been great and they pulled out a massive win against Denver. Seattle has come on strong, but still need to work on their consistency on offense. Although Jimmy Graham looking like Jimmy Graham is a huge help.
- Another huge game is Dallas @ Green Bay. Dom Capers has done wonders against rookie QB's, but Dak is on another level right now. Dallas worked over Cincinnati last week, but Green Bay is still the better team, even with their offensive struggles. Also, underrated storyline is Green Bay's stout run defense vs. Ezekiel Elliott. Should be a lot of fun, but Green Bay at home is tough to bet against.

NFL Predictions 2016: Week 5

Last Week: 7-8
Overall: 25-38

Atlanta is good, Denver is great, Arizona might be screwed, Carolina is in trouble, Buffalo isn't out of it, Le'Veon Bell makes a huge difference, LA is better than expected but still not great, New Orleans and San Diego are just crazy and Tom Brady is now back. Week 4 was ridiculous just like every other week so far, but injuries are starting to pile up and teams are soon going to reach do or die mode.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Fransisco 49ers (ARI -3.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers
Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -7) -> Minnesota Vikings
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -3.5) -> Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns (NE -10.5) -> New England Patriots
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -7) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -4) -> Washington Redskins
Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions (PHI -3.5) -> Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Bears @ Indianpolis Colts (IND -4.5) -> Indianapolis Colts
Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos (DEN -5.5) -> Denver Broncos
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams (LA -2.5) -> Buffalo Bills
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (OAK -3.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys (CIN -1) -> Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers (GB -7.5) -> Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -7) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A couple notes...
- Lock of the Week: San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders. With Verrett out, and pretty much everybody else on San Diego but Phillip Rivers out too, Oakland has a decent chance to blow this game out. Rivers is incredible, and he's the only reason it could be close, but Oakland's defense is starting to perform better, and their offense should have another stellar week.
- Upset of the Week: Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is at home, and their offense is starting to roll. Dak has been great and Elliott leads the league in rushing. Cincinnati is a great team, but Dallas' O-line should be able to give Dak just enough time against a great interior rush to pull out a win here.
- I don't know how to predict Arizona and Carolina. With Carson Palmer out and Cam Newton most likely out too, these are two good teams that have performed poorly all year, but they are going up against two weaker teams as well. Derek Anderson can be solid so I could see Carolina winning, but man Drew Stanton is just not good. Even against San Fran and with a much more talented roster, Stanton could just throw the game away and I wouldn't be surprised.
- Denver vs Atlanta should be incredible. I think Matt Ryan's hot start is stymied a bit with this Denver D. Brandon Marshall, Todd Davis, Sylvester Williams and T.J. Ward are going to be really important to slow down Devonta Freeman, so they can force Matt Ryan to throw and try and get him to make mistakes.
- I could see Odell go for 200+ yards against Green Bay, but I still can't see New York stopping Green Bay's offense. Eli should be under pressure a lot of the game. Nick Perry and if Clay Matthews is back should both absolutely eat up NY's OT's. They should chip with TE's and RB's a lot to give OBJ, Cruz and Sheppard more time.
- I think this is a big game for Philly. Detroit hasn't been great this year, but they are on the road and I want to see what their offense can do after a bye week. Their defense should DESTROY Detroit's offense though. Jim Schwartz return game narrative.

NFL Predictions 2016: Week 4

Last Week: 7-9

Overall: 18-30

I'm improving? Every week I think I'm getting a better grasp on who teams really are. There are a group of roughly 7 teams who are the clear teams to beat, with no single team standing out a ton yet (other than the Patriots but I'm still waiting for Tom to return). Then there is a group of 15ish teams that are inconsistent to say the least. I've fallen trap to a lot of teams here, and they bring it one week and get flat out outplayed the next (*cough* Washington, Buffalo Tampa Bay, Oakland *cough*). Finally there are the teams that just suck. At least right now. Some are talented teams playing like crap, others are horribly coached, and others are weak rosters playing their asses off. So, lets see who proves me wrong this week.

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -7.5) -> Miami Dolphins

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (London game) (IND -2.5) -> Indianapolis Colts

Cleveland Browns @ Washington Redskins (WAS -8) -> Washington Redskins

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (NE -6) -> New England Patriots

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Jets (SEA -2.5) -> New York Jets

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (CAR -3) -> Carolina Panthers

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (DET -3) -> Detroit Lions

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (HOU -4.5) -> Houston Texans

Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -3.5) -> Oakland Raiders

Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DEN -3) -> Denver Broncos

Dallas Cowboys @ San Fransisco 49ers (DAL -2.5) -> Dallas Cowboys

New Orleans Saints @ San Diego Chargers (SD -4) -> New Orleans Saints

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -8) -> Arizona Cardinals

Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -5) -> Kansas City Chiefs

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -5) -> Minnesota Vikings

A couple notes...

- The Bengals in primetime or Miami on the road... Damn. This is not a good way to start the week. I like the way Gase is coaching this team though, and I mean, it's been 5+ years and I just still do not believe in Andy Dalton. Oh well. Cinci is the more talented team, but 7.5 is a big spread on a short week where anything can happen. AJ Green should have a monster game though. Like enormous.

- It seems like whenever there is football in London, a coach gets fired. To be honest I'm not even a hundred percent sure a coach has gotten fired after the London game, but man oh man I have a bad feeling this week for Gus Bradley. I love the Jags roster, I've bet on them each of the last two weeks, but this team has not performed close to offseason expectations. If Andrew Luck has a decent game, it could be the end of the Gus Bradley era in Jacksonville.

- I AM NOT BETTING AGAINST BELICHICK THIS WEEK. My instincts even tell me to go for Buffalo. They brought a storm last week vs. Arizona, and Rex seems to play BB hard, and the Pats might be starting Julian Fucking Edelman at QB, but damn it's Bill Belichick. I can't do it anymore. He's too good.

- I realize I'm going with a ton of road teams this week, and I'm prepared for the downfall of this, but the games just fell that way. I'm not betting for Chicago, San Fran or Tampa Bay after the last couple weeks, especially considering who they are all going up against. I also expect big bounce back weeks from Carolina and Arizona.

- Minnesota might be the best team in the NFL. I cannot believe I'm writing this sentence after they lost Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson, but it's true. I've always been a big believer in this defense. The depth at edge and the creative ways Mike Zimmer brings pressure on opposing QB's, and then they have an incredible group of linebackers and a great secondary headed by the best safety in the league (you heard me) Harrison Smith. This team is basically the Denver Broncos but with Sam BRadford instead of Trevor Siemian. I think at the top of the NFL, it is the Pats, Vikings, Green Bay (permitted Aaron Rodgers is at least solid by his standards), Denver and Seattle (permitted Wilson can stay healthy and the offense can be okay). The rest of the teams I have serious questions about. Although Carolina is close to this group, and if Carson Palmer bounces back then Arizona is right there too.

NFL Predictions 2016: Week 3

Last Week: 6-10
Overall: 11-21

Well I'm bad. The turning point that I've called before the season though is after week 3. That's when you usually find out what teams true identities really are, what coaches bring to the table, and the spreads aren't as ridiculous. The worst part of all of this is I'm missing on the spreads by a point or on unlucky plays consistently. Baltimore and Cleveland, I just missed, the Pats and Dolphins they couldn't complete the comeback and I missed by half a point, Carolina scored 17 points on San Fran in the last 4 minutes, and Denver got the sack/fumble to complete the spread. My luck has to turn soon... hopefully...

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (EVEN) -> Houston Texans
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -3) -> Denver Broncos
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -1.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills (ARI -4) -> Arizona Cardinals
Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars (BAL -1) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -9.5) -> Miami Dolphins
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (NYG -4.5) -> New York Giants
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (GB -7.5) -> Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -7) -> Minnesota Vikings
San Fransisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -9.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (TB -5.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles (PIT -3.5) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -3) -> Kansas City Chiefs
San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -3) -> Indianapolis Colts
Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys (DAL -7) -> Dallas Cowboys
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (NO -3) -> New Orleans Saints

A couple notes...
- If Belichick wins with Brissett, I promise you for the rest of the season I will not bet against him. The spread could be Pats -10000 and I'm going Pats. Houston is a really, really talented team, and I think they should win this short week game against a rookie QB. I'm sure Belichick will set Brissett up nicely with a lot of short, high percentile throws, but the Texans are too good to beat that way.
- I'm a glutton for punishment, I'm going Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and Oakland after last week. I think all three of these teams are talented, they just need to get back on track and I think they all have good match-ups. It will come down to QB play, and all three young quarterbacks could torch their opposing defenses, or at least not throw their respective games away.
- I can't see Seattle, Carolina, and Green Bay putting up enough points to beat their spreads, but I think all three teams should win.
- Lock of the Week: Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills. The Bills fired their offensive coordinator, yet their defense has been awful. Hmmm. I will take Arizona all day long. Their defense should beat up on the Bills offense, and Carson Palmer should have absolutely no problem moving the chains and putting up points. It would take a tragic Palmer performance to make this game even close.
- Upset of the Week: Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans. Tennessee came up with a big win last week against Detroit (although the Ebron push off call was a shitty call), but Oakland has way, way more talent. Their offense is moving the ball well, and I actually think their defense should bounce back in a sense this week. If the Titans had a better coach, I think they could be legitimately good. Yet here we are, with Mularky running a trash offense for Mariota. Play up to Mariota's strengths, run short crossers, roll him out, and get Derrick Henry the damn ball.
- Washington intrigues me this week. This is 100% a make or break week for Washington, and I truly believe if they lose in week 3, their season is over. The main reason I'm not going with them this week is Kirk. He has been so, so bad these first two weeks, I can't see how they win if he performs like he has been.

NFL Power Rankings 2016: Week 2

Well... Week 1 was interesting. Quite a few teams proved me wrong, and definitely deserve a raise in my rankings. Usually around week 4 you start to see a teams true colours, so as of now I'm going to try not to completely overreact to certain showings by teams. The top 6 are all really close for me, and I think all of them have a legitimate case for number 1. With all that being said, let's get to it!

1) Green Bay Packers
2) New England Patriots
3) Pittsburgh Steelers
4) Carolina Panthers
5) Denver Broncos
6) Seattle Seahawks
7) Houston Texans
8) Arizona Cardinals
9) Minnesota Vikings
10) Cincinnati Bengals
11) Kansas City Chiefs
12) Oakland Raiders
13) New Orleans Saints
14) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
15) Detroit Lions
16) Indianapolis Colts
17) New York Jets
18) Jacksonville Jaguars
19) New York Giants
20) Miami Dolphins
21) Baltimore Ravens
22) Dallas Cowboys
23) Atlanta Falcons
24) Chicago Bears
25) Buffalo Bills
26) Washington Redskins
27) San Diego Chargers
28) Philadelphia Eagles
29) San Fransisco 49ers
30) Los Angeles Rams
31) Tennessee Titans
32) Cleveland Browns

NFL Predictions 2016: Week 2

Week 1: 5-11

Overall: 5-11

Week 1 is a shit show. I mean I'm just bad at predicting, but week 1 is definitely a shit show too. It was chaos across the board, although it gave us some insight to a lot of teams that had questions about them. There were so many close games this week too, and spreads were missed or made by a point or two. With that being said, on to the picks for week 2!

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (NYJ -1) -> New York Jets

Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions (DET -5.5) -> Detroit Lions

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (HOU -2.5) -> Houston Texans

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (NE -6.5) -> Miami Dolphins

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (BAL -6.5) -> Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -3.5) -> Pittsburgh Steelers

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (WAS -3) -> Washington Redskins

New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants (NYG -4.5) -> New Orleans Saints

San Fransisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -13.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -6.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams (SEA -6.5) -> Los Angeles Rams

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (DEN -6) -> Indianapolis Colts

Atlanta Falcons @ Oakland Raiders (OAK -4.5) -> Oakland Raiders

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers (SD -3) -> Jacksonville Jaguars

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (GB -2) -> Minnesota Vikings

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears (CHI -3) -> Chicago Bears

A couple notes...

- Lock of the Week: Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns. I'm still not completely sold on the Ravens, although they proved me wrong in the first week, but they should handily beat the Browns even in Cleveland. McCown is now the guy in Cleveland, but they're one hit away from Cody Kessler or Kevin Hogan. Let that sink in for a second. McCown isn't the guy you want at QB to begin with, but they are really close to not winning a game this season. Baltimore shut down Tyrod Taylor in week 1, and I don't see them having any trouble with shutting down McCown. Cleveland's D should be no problem for Flacco and that offense too.

- Upset of the Week: There are so many to choose from this week. I'm going to go with the LA Rams over the Seahawks though. Now that seems crazy considering how LA played Monday night (if you didn't watch that game, lucky you). With that being said, I'm also taking into consideration how Seattle played in Week 1, and it was rough. For a team that is supposed to shut down teams at home, they were one Kenny Stills drop away from losing handily to the Miami Dolphins. Russell Wilson hurt his ankle that game too, and there's a chance he may not be 100%. Historically, Jeff Fisher and his squad brings their A game when they play the Seahawks, and I actually think they will outright beat them on Sunday.

- Some other tempting upsets were Miami over New England (although I still hate betting against Belichick), New Orleans over the Giants, San Fran against the spread vs. Carolina, Tampa Bay over Arizona, Indianapolis over Denver, Jacksonville over San Diego, and Minnesota over Green Bay (although I hate betting against Aaron Rodgers almost as much as I hate betting against Belichick). These games all feel like they're going to be way too close to have some of the spreads they do.

- I understand Denver's defense is incredible, but Andrew Luck is the QB for the Colts and Trevor Siemian is the QB for the Broncos.

- I don't trust New Orleans' defense, but their offense is so good with Brees and the Giants offense wasn't as explosive as I expected against a weaker Cowboys defense. I expect Brees to keep it to at least a field goal or potentially be able to blow out NY.

- Miami really impressed me week 1. I truly believe that Adam Gase is 100% the right coach for them and I thought Ryan Tannehill was also way better than his numbers indicated. As I've said all throughout the off-season, Seattle's offensive line is very weak, and Miami was easily able to get to Wilson on a consistent basis, but their defense still looked very good too. New England is an issue because of Belichick, and he is just way too smart even with Garappolo starting and Gronk most likely out, but I think it will be a very close game, enough to give Miami the edge under the spread.

- Tampa Bay looked fantastic week 1. They weren't perfect, but Jameis and the offense looked great and you clearly saw the playmakers they have on defense in Kwon Alexander, Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David and VHIII. I was disappointed in Arizona, and thought their game plan was too passive, but they are still a very talented team. I think Arizona will squeak out a victory, but it will be close.

- I think Jacksonville will wreck shop against San Diego. The Jags are a very good team, and were very close to beating Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in week 1. They played a very smart game too, and this defense will continue to get better along with the offense. The biggest week 1 disappointment was not only San Diego blowing such a huge lead against KC, but also Keenan Allen's injury. It was a tale of two different teams, and without Keenan Allen, San Diego seems doomed for another long season. I hope they prove me wrong because I like Phillip Rivers, but man oh man another unlucky, awful injury for the incredibly talented Allen. Rivers will have to abuse Jacksonville's linebackers in the short passing game with Danny Woodhead, but if the Jags play Myles Jack (lets hope!) then they could help minimize that issue, and apart from that the Jags win across the board. Although I can't wait to see Allen Robinson vs. Jason Verrett. Should be an awesome match-up!

- Minnesota's defense is ridiculous. I think it's the best defense in the league (sorry Denver and Seattle) and I don't think that's even that hot of a take. They have star talent and depth at every level and even with a shaky at best offense, they will compete this year. This is Bradford's first start of the year (or should be at least) and he is miles ahead of Shaun Hill in terms of talent. This should be an incredibly close game and frankly I'm torn. Green Bay should be better than they were in week 1 as Rodgers and Jordy get another week together, but I'll take the home team as the tiebreaker.

- On Thursday we're gonna see two very good defenses go off, in the Jets and Bills. Simply put, the Jets looked better in week 1, and I think they are the more talented team. I think for the Bills to win, Tyrod will have to play exceptionally, which isn't out of the question, but I still lean New York's way.

- Detroit really impressed me week 1. Andrew Luck was incredible, yet they kept on bouncing back and Stafford and that offense were outstanding. I think they should easily beat a Titans team that... er... let me just say struggled in week 1.

- Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans should be a fantastic game, but I'm going with Houston. ironically without Justin Houston, KC's defense didn't look nearly as potent as it has in recent years, and Houston looked good on all levels against a solid Chicago team.

- Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers should be another great game. I think it should come down to the wire, but in the end I don't see how Cincinnati is going to stop Antonio Brown.

- Washington should beat Dallas. Should. Dak had a solid showing vs. the Giants, but he really isn't being asked to do much. Washington's defense was torched by a good Pittsburgh offense, but they are still very talented and should be able to handle Dak. Washington's offense should also in theory put the throttle to Dallas' defense. I'll give Washington the benefit of the doubt in week 1, but if they don't pull this out though, then I'm going to be worried about them as a team.

- So Atlanta was better in week 1 then I thought they would be, but my god they need a pass rush. Badly. Oakland should be able to punish them for their lack of push at the line, and I expect Oakland to keep momentum going after an impressive, ballsy, week 1 win.

- Give me John Fox's Bears vs. a rookie QB. The Eagles looked way better than I thought they would in week 1, and their defense is good, but Chicago is a better team than people think. Jay Cutler is solid, and Alshon and Kevin White are too good to keep quiet all game.

NFL Power Rankings 2016: Week 1

Don't @ me. I might get destroyed on a few of these after week 1, but that's part of the fun. Baltimore, Atlanta and Miami could surprise, but frankly I think those teams are trying to fight going into rebuild mode when that's what they should do. The AFC past New England is rough, and I mean rough. Not to say by the end of the year there won't be a true competitor other than NE, but right now, I have no idea. Most analysts tend to love Pittsburgh, but I'm torn. Big Ben is great, as is Antonio Brown, but I still have questions about their defense, mainly their secondary and how they'll get pressure off the edge. The Packers at the top? Well sure they lost Sitton, but who's ever said they won't win a Super Bowl because of their left guard? Two years ago the Packers had the best offense in the NFL. They are returning every starter from that offense other than Sitton (and Kuhn :'(...), and they should get bounce back years from Lacy, Cobb, Adams etc. Their defense is getting to a point where it's underrated too. It was close between Green Bay and Seattle, but Seattle's offensive line (or lack there of) pushed it over the edge for me. Dallas and Minnesota should shoot up these rankings to when Romo is back and when I see Sam Bradford has learned the playbook. Their too talented to be as low as they are.

1) Green Bay Packers
2) Seattle Seahawks
3) New England Patriots
4) Arizona Cardinals
5) Carolina Panthers
6) Pittsburgh Steelers
7) Kansas City Chiefs
8) Denver Broncos
9) Cincinnati Bengals
10) Dallas Cowboys
11) Houston Texans
12) New York Giants
13) Oakland Raiders
14) New York Jets
15) Indianapolis Colts
16) Minnesota Vikings
17) Buffalo Bills
18) Washington Redskins
19) New Orleans Saints
20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
21) Chicago Bears
22) Jacksonville Jaguars
23) Detroit Lions
24) Miami Dolphins
25) Atlanta Falcons
26) Tennessee Titans
27) Baltimore Ravens
28) Philadelphia Eagles
29) Los Angeles Rams
30) San Diego Chargers
31) Cleveland Browns
32) San Fransisco 49ers

NFL Predictions 2016: Week 1

Back at it again! Way too long of an offseason, but finally football is back. The first week is usually a shit show and it's anybody's guess as to what happens, so I guess we'll find out soon!

Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos (CAR -5.5) -> Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -3) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans (MIN -2) -> Tennessee Titans

Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -4) -> Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (CIN -2.5) -> Cincinnati Bengals

Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints (NO -1) -> New Orleans Saints

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -7) -> Kansas City Chiefs

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -3) -> Buffalo Bills

Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans (HOU -6.5) -> Houston Texans

Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (GB -5.5) -> Green Bay Packers

Miami Dolphins @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -10.5) -> Seattle Seahawks

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (EVEN) -> New York Giants

Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -3.5) -> Indianapolis Colts

New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -6) -> Arizona Cardinals

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins (PIT -3) -> Pittsburgh Steelers

Los Angeles Rams @ San Fransisco 49ers (LA -2.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers

A couple notes...

- The Super Bowl rematch on Thursday loses a bit of excitement as Siemian is starting for the Broncos. He actually looked solid in the preseason, and he may surprise people, but against an incredibly stout Panthers defense, I can't see Denver coming out with the win.

- Matt Ryan's arm looked shot in the preseason. That's the main reason I'm going Tampa here, until I see Ryan hasn't lost a step, or at least looks adequate, I'm not gonna go with Atlanta.

- Speaking of QB's I need to see first, Minnesota has one hell of a team but man oh man week 1, it's either Shaun Hill, or Sam Bradford who may not know enough of the playbook to actually be able to play. Minnesota with Bridgewater was a Super Bowl contender, and Bradford may still be good enough to make them threats, but this early in the season, I'm gonna go with the team with a better QB. Also I'm a fan of the direction Tennessee is going in and what they showed this preseason with Murray and Henry.

- Cleveland and Philadelphia, eh, it's kind of a toss-up. Eagles are at home so my instinct wants to lean there, but I'm going to fall trap to the excitement of Cleveland's new offense. Also Wentz first game, and I was in the camp that he wasn't ready to start out of the gate, but once again I'm ready to be proven wrong.

- Bengals vs Jets should be a great game. Two tough defenses going at it, and two teams that should be fighting for playoff spots near the end of the year. Personally I'm not a huge fan of Andy Dalton, but he's still the better QB and that's why I'm going with the Bengals.

- Another exciting game between Oakland and New Orleans. Two high-powered offenses face off, and this is a tough one. I love the moves Oakland has done this offseason, and I think they are on the right track, and New Orleans has really struggled to be a consistent force as they once were, but New Orleans is also a team that has Drew Brees, and was once an absolute force at home. It's close, but home field advantage pushes it New Orleans way for me.

- KC should blow out San Diego. I love me some Phillip Rivers/Keenan Allen combo, but KC's defense is strong, and their offense should be consistent too.

- I believe in Tyrod Taylor being Buffalo's franchise QB, and frankly I think he's the better quarterback in this game against his former team the Ravens too. Baltimore's roster is old and has a lot of guys coming back from injury, so I don't know what to expect this season from them. Give me Buffalo here.

- The Texans are... Well... They are good. At least they should be if Brock Lobster is adequate. A stout defense and a run game with Nuk too is a good sign for Texans fans. I think Chicago is on the upswing too, and they made a lot of underrated signings like Freeman, Hicks and Trevathan, but I have absolutely no idea how Chicago is going to attempt to stop DeAndre Hopkins and Houston is at home too.

- I'm completely on board with the new look Jags, yet this is a team that has struggled mightily in September, losing by an average of 17.3 points over the past 3 years. Their offense is strong, Bortles, Robinson and Hurns are a terrific combo but they are going up against one of the most complete teams this year, and the best QB in the league. I wouldn't be shocked if the Jags take this game, but everything would have to go right, and the questions about their pass rush don't help their cause against an offense that thrives with time. Oh, Jordy's back too.

- Seattle's offensive line is awful. They also lost Marshawn Lynch. They should destroy the Dolphins. I'm not too high on Seattle this year, but their defense is too good to believe that Miami can take them IN Seattle.

- If Romo was healthy I'm taking Dallas all day long, but Dak's a go for week 1, and it makes things way more interesting. I loved what I saw from Prescott in the preseason, but he's still a rookie QB in his first regular season game ever. When he played with Dez in the preseason he went there often, and I expect to see a lot of Elliott too, but the Giants offense is a good one. OBJ, Shepard and Cruz (if healthy) should be able to handle the Cowboys D with ease.

- The Colts and Lions are both very weird teams. They both have good talent across the board, but have clear holes too. I think the Colts and their offense are in for a good bounce back year, so I'll take them for week 1 at least.

- If Brady was playing I'd take the Patriots but he's not so I'm taking the Cardinals. Simple as that. Although I want to see Carson Palmer back at his best because this preseason and last years postseason was rough.

- Anotnio Brown vs. Josh Norman week 1, yes please. I think Brown is gonna get his fair share of wins against Norman, and I like Pittsburgh as a whole better than Washington even on the road.

- First game the LA Rams are playing in a long time, and I'm taking the 49ers against the spread? I know, I suck. Oh well, it's Case Keenum vs. Blaine Gabbert, this is probably the worst game of the week. Give me the home team.

NFL Predictions: Conference Championship Weekend

Last Week: 1-3
Overall: 3-5

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (NE -3) -> Denver Broncos
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -3) -> Carolina Panthers

A couple notes...
- Last week was so close across the board. The three bad picks were all 2 points or less away from being right. Brutal. That's what happens in the playoffs though, most of the games, especially the ones left, are toss ups.
- The Broncos and Patriots game should be great. Not because of Manning or Brady, but because this is the Broncos vs. the Patriots. I predict this game going one of two ways. Either Brady, Belichick and the Patriots blow out Denver, or Denver wins a close one. I'm going with the latter because this is a great defense in Denver. Sure, they gave up a lot of big plays last week against Pittsburgh, and Big Ben was hurt too (although he didn't look it), but they still didn't allow a touchdown. The biggest question mark in this game is Chris Harris. He's playing with a banged up shoulder which will limit his ability to play at the line and press coverage on Julian Edelman. That should be who the Pats queue up on, but Harris is still really talented, and if he can contain Edelman then Denver should win.
- The Cardinals and Panthers is just a game where the two best teams in the NFL this year face off against one another. Two great defenses,  two high scoring offenses, and two elite (you heard me) quarterbacks. The reason why I'm going with Carolina is simple. I have more faith in Cam Newton right now than Carson Palmer. The last few weeks, Carson Palmer hasn't looked great. Against the Packers last week, he made some horrible decisions (his second touchdown was pure luck) and Fitz bailed him out. Although the Panthers struggled in the second half and Cam wasn't asked to do much all game, Cam has been very consistent this entire year, and I think he can pull out the win.
- One more thing, holy shit what a game the Packers and Cardinals had last week! Easily the game of the year for me. The Packers played their asses off, and even with Jeff Janis and Jared Abbrederis as his two top receivers, Aaron Rodgers wowed the entire world once again. The only disappointment on my end is once again the Packers lose in overtime AND Aaron Rodgers doesn't even get a chance to have the ball. Although Larry Fitzgerald put his team on his back. That was two great teams showcasing how tough they are, and I expect both teams to consistently be back in the playoffs as long as each of their respective QB's are healthy.

NFL Predictions: Divisional Round

Last Week: 2-2
Playoff Record: 2-2

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots (NE -5) -> Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -7) -> Arizona Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -1.5) -> Carolina Panthers
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (DEN -7.5) -> Denver Broncos

A couple notes...
- The Pats are banged up. Really banged up. Brady's hurting, Gronk's hurting, Edelman and Amendola are both questionable, and the defense is banged up too. Kansas City's defense is a tough draw for anyone, and unless Edelman is playing, the Pats will struggle to put points on the board. It's tough to pick against the Patriots in the playoffs, and as long as Brady is playing then they have a shot, but they are 2-4 in their last six games and this season has been taking a toll on them. Alex Smith will just need to do what he does best, limit mistakes. No matter who wins it should at least be a close game.
- The NFC just has more exciting games this weekend. Packers vs. Cardinals, Rodgers vs. Palmer, hell yes. Arizona is just the better more complete team in this game though. I think it'll be a lot closer than the blowout a few weeks ago, but Arizona's offensive and defensive talent will be too much for the Packers. The one thing that Green Bay has going for them is they do have Aaron Rodgers. Just like Tom Brady, you can never count Rodgers out. Even looking back at the blowout a few weeks ago too, up until two minutes before the half, Green Bay was completely in the game. If Rodgers turned the Mike Daniels screen into a touchdown, it's 10-10 going into the second half. This should be a very entertaining game, but Arizona is the more complete team.
- So the Seahawks snuck past the wildcard round thanks to a Blair Walsh missed kick, but they are going to have to bring a completely different team to the field if they want to have a shot against the Panthers. Seattle seemed to be missing a beat this past weekend, and Carolina will kick their ass if they play like that again. The Panthers match up pretty well against the Seahawks, with fast athletic linebackers to contain Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. Josh Norman leads a tough Panthers secondary and Wilson will have a hard time beating them. He'll have to rely on his ability to extend plays but this isn't the defense to do that against. Also Greg Olsen has a good matchup against Kam Chancellor. The Seahawks D is still terrific, but Chancellor has been very beatable recently (see Kyle Rudolph in the last series against Minnesota) and Cam Newton's favourite target could have himself a field day. Seattle seems more lucky then good in recent weeks, and they are going up against too good of a team to just be lucky. Give me Carolina.
- Peyton Manning is back! I really, really want Peyton Manning to go out on top with a Super Bowl win, and I'm not a Denver fan. How perfect would that be for one of the all-time greats. Either way, I think Denver beats up on Pittsburgh. Antonio Brown isn't playing Sunday, and Big Ben has a separated shoulder. Oh and the Steelers are going up against the best D in the league (you heard me). If Peyton Manning can be an adequate game manager, then this should be an easy win for Denver.

NFL Predictions: Wildcard Playoff Games

Regular Season Record: 119-129-8

Playoff Record: 0-0

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (KC -3) -> Kansas City Chiefs

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (PIT -2) -> Cincinnati Bengals

Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (SEA -4.5) -> Seattle Seahawks

Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins (WAS -1) -> Washington Redskins

A couple notes...

- The Chiefs and Texans game should be a close one. I think the Texans can somewhat shut down the Chiefs offense, but it comes down to what the Texans can do with their offense. If they can spark something small, even just a couple touchdowns throughout the entire game, then I think they can steal this one. I'm picking the Chiefs though because I think their defense is too good for an injured, weak Texans offense.

- Of course Cincinnati's shot at finally getting a playoff win comes with AJ McCarron at the helm. I think it's going to happen too. AJ McCarron has shown me enough to believe he can get his talented weapons the ball, and that is all that matters. Tyler Eifert will be a HUGE matchup problem for the Steelers, and I expect him to have a monster game. Between Eifert, Green, Jones, Sanu, Bernard and Hill, they should be able to put up some points on a weak Steelers defense. Now I don't feel safe betting on McCarron over Roethlisberger, but Big Ben hasn't been as sharp as his usual self over these past few weeks, and with no running game now that DeAngelo Williams is out, the Bengals can cue on Antonio Brown and the Steelers air attack, which is why I think they'll pull this one out.

- Seattle matches up terrifically against Minnesota. Really there is nothing else to it. The Vikings have had a really hard time keeping Bridgwater upright all season, and between Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett, Seattle will dial up the pressure without even having to blitz. This game will come down to Teddy Bridgewater being able to make plays against one of the best defenses in the league (and the best run defense too), and I don't know if I like those odds. Granted, this game becomes a lot closer when you look at the other side of the ball, because Marshawn Lynch is out for the game, and Russell Wilson will have to make plays against a very, very good Minnesota defense. I still take Seattle, but this should be a very entertaining, very defensive game.

- The Green Bay-Washington game really intrigues me, but just based off of how both of these teams have been playing in recent weeks, I can't pick the Packers. Kirk Cousins has been terrific in the second half of the season, and I don't know if the Packers have enough of an answer for Jordan Reed even given their versatile secondary. Washington should be able to score enough points that the Packers will need a good day on offense to win, and I just don't think they can get that from an offense that can't create separation in the passing game and also has a very inconsistent run game. I never would have imagined in the preseason I would be taking Washington over Green Bay in the playoffs, but here we are.

NFL Predictions: Week 17

Last week of the regular season. I'll need a miracle to break even on the year, but hopefully I can at least end on a high note.

Last Week: 8-8
Overall: 113-120-7

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (NYJ -3) -> New York Jets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -10.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (NE -10) -> New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -9.5) -> Cincinnati Bengals
New Orleans Saints @ Atlants Falcons (ATL -5.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (HOU -6.5) -> Houston Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (PIT -11) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -7) -> Oakland Raiders
Tennessee Titans @ Indianpolis Colts (IND -6) -> Tennessee Titans
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (WAS -4) -> Washington Redskins
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (EVEN) -> Detroit Lions
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (NYG -5) -> New York Giants
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos (DEN -9) -> San Diego Chargers
St. Louis Rams @ San Fransisco 49ers (STL -3.5) -> St. Louis Rams
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -6.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (GB -3) -> Green Bay Packers

A couple notes...
- Part of me wants to bet on all the 9 outcomes that would get the Colts to the playoffs, but I just can't bring myself to do that... Still rooting for that to happen though.
- The last week of the season is one of the toughest weeks to bet on because depending on the score in certain games teams sometimes pull their starters and play more conservative, which screws with the spread.
- The Colts are in a position where best case scenario Charlie "Clipboard Jesus" Whitehurst is their starter. Best case. That's just ridiculous. The Titans have not been playing good football this entire year, but they should keep it close and could easily pull off the upset.
-The Chiefs have been playing really good football, but it hasn't been because of their offense. Oakland is a young talented team that overall has played well this year, I think they should keep it close enough to cover the spread.
- I'm still shocked that Pittsburgh lost to Baltimore. Either way I feel comfortable going in on Big Ben having a big game against the Browns. On top of that, for the 4th straight year, Cleveland is starting their 3rd string QB in the last week of the season, so that's hilarious.
- Hell yeah, Seattle @ Arizona and Minnesota @ Green Bay to close out this football season. I don't feel overly confident in either of my picks for those games, but that should be some entertaining football.
- Lock of the Week: Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys. I'm absolutely stunned that I think Washington is a lock, but this is what this season has come down to. Captain Kirk has been terrific throughout the second half of the season and Dallas has not. Simple as that.
- Upset of the Week: San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos. None of my "upsets" are games where I think the underdog is actually going to flat out win, I just think they will cover the spread. I feel pretty good about this game being a close one. Pretty much every team has been able to keep it close with the Broncos this season (except the Packers and San Diego the first game), and the Broncos only scored 17 points the first game too. Just based off of that, I think San Diego should have a better output against a slightly more vulnerable Broncos defense (still elite, they just haven't been shutting down opponents recently).

NFL Predictions: Week 16

Last Week: 7-8-1
Overall: 105-112-7

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (OAK -5.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -3) ->  Washington Redskins
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -5.5) -> Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -3) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (CAR -7) -> Carolina Panthers
Dallas Cowboys @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -6) -> Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints (NO -3.5) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
San Fransisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions (DET -9.5) -> Detroit Lions
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -11) -> Kansas City Chiefs
Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -2.5) -> Indianapolis Colts
New England Patriots @ New York Jets (NE -3) -> New England Patriots
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -4.5) -> Houston Texans
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -4.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -13.5) -> St. Louis Rams
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (PIT -10) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos (DEN -3.5) -> Denver Broncos

A couple notes...
- Charles Woodson's last game in Oakland. He is the GOAT of defensive backs. That's my take, feel free to disagree, but he is a surefire Hall-of-Famer and a legend.
- The Washington Redskins will probably be your 2015 NFC East champs. That's weird. I don't know if I like that... But they have been the best team in the Tony Romo-less division, and deserve it more than the Eagles, Giants and 'Boys.
- Why do I keep picking Jacksonville? I love their offense and the spreads are usually pretty enticing. Oh well, two weeks left in the regular season and I am definitely going down with this ship. Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson, I'll take that all day especially if he's lined up against Brandon Browner at all. Also Brees may be out so that makes it even better.
- The Colts without Luck against the Dolphins. This has all the makings of a really ugly game. Ugh, I'll take the Colts I guess. With that being said I want no part of this game for betting purposes.
- Packers @ Cardinals, oh hell yeah! As a football fan I love it. This should be a terrific game. Every logical part of my mind says go Cardinals, but at the same time, it seems like a game where Aaron Rodgers will remind all of us why he is the best player in the world, and that nothing can stop him, not even mediocre (at best) weapons and going up against a great defense. Still picking the Cardinals, but I'm not that confident.
- Another great game between the Bengals and Broncos, but this one is less about two great QB's facing off against one another. This is about two deep rosters, and two great defenses. Nevertheless a terrific game ahead, and I'll take the team with the slightly better QB and more opportunistic defense.
- Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens. Pittsburgh just torched the Broncos defense, so I'm pretty sure they will find a way to score a few points against the injury riddled Ravens defense. Big Ben + Antonio Brown = Touchdowns. Simple math.
- Upset of the Week: St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks. The Rams probably won't win this game. But 13.5 points is a big spread, and Jeff Fisher coached teams weirdly play better against good teams. They have faired well against Seattle in recent years, and the Seahawks demolition on offense will start to die down sooner or later. on top of that, the Rams offense consists of Gurley, Gurley and more Gurley, which could keep Seattle's offense off the field and keep the score relatively close.

NFL Predictions: Week 15

Last week: 7-9
Overall: 98-104-6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ St. Louis Rams (STL -2.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys (NYJ -3) -> New York Jets
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -5.5) -> Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX -3) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -1) -> Houston Texans
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens (KC -7.5) -> Kansas City Chiefs
Buffalo Bills @ Washington Redskins (BUF -1) -> Buffalo Bills
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots (NE -14) -> New England Patriots
Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles (ARI -3.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (CAR -5) -> Carolina Panthers
Cleveland Browns @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -14.5) -> Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay Packers @ Oakland Raiders (GB -3) -> Oakland Raiders
Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers (SD -1.5) -> Miami Dolphins
Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -6.5) -> Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Fransisco 49ers (CIN -4.5) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints (NO -3.5) -> New Orleans Saints

A couple notes...
- Definitely an entertaining Thursday night game, but the St. Louis still doesn't have a QB. I'm going to have a hard time picking them to win especially when they go up against a team with a good young quarterback like Jameis Winston.
- I thought Tennessee would keep it close with the Jets last week. I was very, very wrong. And frankly, without Romo, Dallas isn't that much better off then the Titans. I'll take the Jets.
- What is going on Falcons? I'm sure they're asking themselves those same questions. Matt Ryan hasn't been good all season, even when they were winning, but now they are just spiralling. I like the Jags. I probably take them way too much, but they're a fun team, and I genuinely like their offense. Putting up 50 in one of Bortles weaker games can also help with my view on them too.
- The Patriots and Seattle both have brutal lines, but I still have no confidence in either the Titans or Browns to keep it at all close. Part of me wants the Browns to beat Seattle because the narrative with Manziel would be hilarious after that, but let's be realistic, these are two blowouts waiting to happen.
- Two amazing games this week; Green Bay @ Oakland, and Denver @ Pittsburgh. I think Oakland will take a close shootout of a game, and I think Denver will keep it close with Pittsburgh but end up losing. I can't wait to see the Steelers offense going up against the Broncos defense. That is just elite football right there.
- Another great game is Arizona @ Philadelphia. Are the Eagles a great team right now? No, but they're playing with a sense of urgency that was missing earlier this season. Arizona also looked more vulnerable then they have most of the year against Minnesota last Thursday night. Arizona will still give Bradford a tough time, which is why I'm taking the Cardinals.
- Lock of the Week: Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants. OBJ will be Norman's toughest test of the year, but apart from that battle, Carolina lines up terrifically with the rest of a mediocre Giants roster. The Panthers offense will be way to much for a lacklustre Giants defense to handle, and the Panthers will be one step closer to an undefeated season. The only thing that worries me is that they are the Giants and they know a thing or two about breaking up undefeated seasons.
- Upset of the Week: Green Bay Packers @ Oakland Raiders. Do I think Green Bay's season is looking up? Yeah. Was it right to give Mike McCarthy play-calling duties back? Definitely. Should they be considered a real Super Bowl contender? They're getting there. With all this being said, Oakland is a very talented team. Their offense is a huge threat to any team, and while I think this should be a really high scoring affair, and a very close game, Oakland playing at home tilts it a little in their favor for me.

NFL Predictions: Week 14

Damn... A few bad weeks have caught up to me, and I'm below .500 once again. Nothing comes easy in football, and apparently that holds true with predicting football too. Close predictions with the Giants and Miami would have left me .500 if I won them both, but that's how it goes. Hopefully I'm in for a better week. On the bright side though, holy hell what an amazing finish on Thursday Night Football last week!
Last Week: 6-10
Overall: 91-95-6

Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -10) -> Arizona Cardinals
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -2.5) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles (BUF -1) -> Buffalo Bills
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -8.5) -> Carolina Panthers
San Fransisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns (CLE -1.5) -> San Fransisco 49ers
Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears (CHI -3.5) -> Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions @ St. Louis Rams (DET -2.5) -> Detroit Lions
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -10) -> Kansas City Chiefs
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -4) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX -1) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets (NYJ -7) -> Tennessee Titans
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans (NE -3.5) -> New England Patriots
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (DEN -7.5) -> Denver Broncos
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (GB -7) -> Green Bay Packers
Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens (SEA -10) -> Seattle Seahawks
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins (NYG -1) -> New York Giants

A couple notes...
- Unless the spread is absolutely insane, I'm going with the Panthers the rest of the season. I think this team has a great shot at 16-0, and frankly I want to see it happen. Facing New Orleans on the road should be there toughest game for the rest of the season (I know, crazy soft schedule to end a year), and facing Atlanta 2 times, along with Tampa Bay and the Giants once is a winnable schedule for the best team in football now. Give me the Panthers.
- Lock of the Week: Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers. This is a really boring pick, but Carolina is a great football team and Atlanta right now is not a good football team. No need to complicate things, this is the state of these two teams.
- Upset of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals. I took a flyer on the Colts against the Steelers as they were playing really well going into last week. Then the Steelers decimated them in all facets of the game. Give me the Steelers as the underdogs as I don't think anybody can stop their offense right now. Big Ben is so hot right now... (queue Will Ferrell Zoolander meme)
- Speaking of that Pittsburgh/Indianapolis game last week, give me the Jags. As long as Luck is out, this is a flawed team. Sure they'll have their fair share of decent performances, but the inconsistency is to much for me to bet on them upsetting a very good Jags offense right now (their defense is another story).
- Non-picks related, the Bills/Eagles game is going to have huge implications on the playoff picture in the NFL. Should be a must watch this week, even if both teams have been very inconsistent this year.
- I finally got a Green Bay pick right, but I probably shouldn't have. That was an insane win, and looking at the big picture, it wasn't a great team performance considering how they started. Nevertheless, they should still be able to handily beat a Dallas team without Romo at home; I don't care that Dallas just beat Washington either.
- There's a reason I'm always so tentative choosing Washington to win and it's because they are so damn inconsistent. Any given week they can beat a good team or lose to a bad team, it's basically a coin flip.
- This Thursday night is a game between two good teams, but Minnesota is really hurting. Missing the best player on all three levels of their defense will cripple their ability to stop Arizona's potent offense. I do wish the spread was a little lower, but either way I'm taking Arizona.

NFL Predictions: Week 13

Back to .500. Started off the week well, and then missed on both 4 pm games, the Sunday Night Football game, and Monday night too. Football is a cruel, cruel mistress and I love it.
Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 85-85-6

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (GB -3) -> Green Bay Packers
San Fransisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears (CHI -7) -> Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (CIN -9.5) -> Cincinnati Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -2.5) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -3) -> Houston Texans
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -4) -> Miami Dolphins
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (CAR -7) -> Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (Even) -> Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (ARI -6) -> Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -1.5) -> Atlanta Falcons
New York Jets @ New York Giants (NYJ -2) -> New York Giants
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (DEN -4) -> Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (KC -3) -> Kansas City Chiefs
Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots (NE -9.5) -> New England Patriots
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -7) -> Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (WAS -4.5) -> Washington Redskins

A couple notes...
- Why does Green Bay do this to me every single week... I have absolutely no confidence that they will win this Thursday, but I don't have any confidence that Detroit will either. The Packers have been "in" every game this year, except for the Broncos, until the last minute, and the loss against the Lions at home was a botched kick, the loss to the Bears was an absolute brutal game for their wide receivers, and Carolina was actually almost a pretty impressive comeback for that GB offense. I don't think they are as bad offensively as they have been so far this year, and as long as they have Aaron Rodgers then I will keep betting for them.
- Da Bears are lacking talent, but damn are they a well coached team. John Fox should be up for coach of the year because of how well he is getting his guys to play. I'll take the Bears at home against the 49ers even if the spread is a touchdown.
- Houston and Kansas City are two teams trending up, and I'm probably taking both of these teams until they lose.
- Lock of the Week: Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints. Are the Panthers going 16-0 this year? Probably not, but they will be 12-0 after this week. Cam is going to torch a weak Saints defense, and Carolina's D will pounce on a saints offense that has struggled in the past couple weeks.
- Upset of the Week: Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers. The Colts are playing inspired under Hasselback, and Roethlisberger may not even play. Even if he does end up playing, this isn't a walk in the park for the Steelers as the Colts have won 3 straight games against pretty solid teams.
- Seattle vs. Minnesota should be a great game. Normally I'll take the home team in a toss up, but Seattle, and more importantly Russell Wilson, has been playing really well lately, so give me the Seahawks.
-

NFL Predictions: Week 12

Better week, and now we have Thanksgiving Day to get this up. Hopefully I can finally get a Green Bay game right again after 4 weeks of missing on it. 
Last Week: 8-5-1
Overall: 78-76-6

Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions (DET -3) -> Detroit Lions
Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys (Even) -> Carolina Panthers
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (GB -8) -> Green Bay Packers
New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans (HOU -3) -> Houston Texans
Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -1) -> Minnesota Vikings
St. Louis Rams @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -9) -> St. Louis Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -3) -> Indianapolis Colts
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins (NYG -2.5) -> New York Giants
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans (OAK -2) -> Oakland Raiders
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -6.5) -> Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (NYJ -3.5) -> New York Jets
San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX -4) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Arizona Cardinals @ San Fransisco 49ers (ARI -10.5) -> Arizona Cardinals
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -4) -> Pittsburgh Steelers
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (NE -3) -> New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (CLE -3) -> Cleveland Browns

A couple notes...
- I do think it's disrespectful to have the Panthers even with the Cowboys. I don't think they should be major favourites, but 3 or 4 points seems reasonable even with Romo back. It Should be a great game, but Cam has been playing incredibly and that defense is for real, so I lean the Panthers way.
- Minnesota and Atlanta, two teams I can't really figure out, but I''m going to give it up to Minnesota even though they are on the road.
- I'm disappointed Manziel isn't starting, just as a football fan he is way more fun to watch then McCown.
- Buffalo vs. KC should actually be a pretty enjoyable game. I think it will be a closer game than people seem to think, but Kansas City is the superior team in this game and they are at home. Expect a defensive battle with KC winning.
- Upset of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is a good team, but they are far from great. They also don't have the same home field advantage as they used to have, and Big Ben is just too good for their team to shut down, so if they are going to win, it will fall onto Russell Wilson's shoulders, which isn't the best thing to bet on this year.
- Lock of the Week: Dare I say it. Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers. I know, I know. It's dangerous to pick the Packers as a lock after just two weeks ago they lost to the Lions at home. My logic is there is no way they're going to lose to the Lions and Bears at home in the same year. Right? RIGHT?
- The greatest holiday of the year is this Thursday... All day football! So enjoy!

NFL Predictions: Week 11

Two consecutive bad weeks. All of the supposed "blowout" games last week were either upsets or extremely close. Hopefully this week can break the streak and get us back above .500. Hopefully...
Last Week: 5-9
Overall: 70-71-5

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX -3) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -7) -> Carolina Panthers
Oakland Raiders @ Detroit Lions (OAK -1.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins (Even) -> Dallas Cowboys
Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -6) -> Atlanta Falcons
St. Louis Rams @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -2.5) -> St. Louis Rams
New York Jets @ Houston Texans (NYJ -2.5) -> Houston Texans
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -1) -> Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -5.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears (CHI -1) -> Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -5) -> Arizona Cardinals
San Fransisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -12.5) -> Seattle Seahawks
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers (KC -3) -> Kansas City Chiefs
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (NE -7) -> New England Patriots

A couple notes...
- The Seattle San Fran game is probably the hardest pick this week. The spread seems insane, but Seattle is still a tough team to beat at home and San Fran on the road has been so, so bad this year. I'm picking Seattle even with the crazy spread, but I won't be shocked in the slightest if San Fran keeps it close or even if they somehow win after their bye week.
- So I think the smartest thing for me to do is to pick against Green Bay until they figure their shit out. Last game was awful. Denver and Carolina were rough, but they are at least good teams. Detroit is not, and it was so bad. Minnesota at home after 5 wins in a row, that's going to be a tough one for Green Bay.
- I am weirdly on board for the Jaguars and Titans game on Thursday. Should be very entertaining. I think Jacksonville might be able to actually blow this one out, but I've been high on the Jags all year so who knows.
- Cincinnati vs. Arizona should be incredible. Game of the week potential here, and the trash talking has already started too. I don't think Cincinnati was necessarily exposed on Monday night against the Texans, but they'll definitely have to up their game A LOT to beat the Cardinals on the road.
- Romo's back! I'm not a Cowboys fan but it's just good for football to have one of the ore underrated QB's back healthy. Should be able to beat a lacklustre Dolphins squad.
- Upset of the Week: Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears. Chicago is a substantially better team then I thought, but this is still Denver we're talking about. Manning is out, which might end up being good for them. As long as Osweiler doesn't put them in an enormous hole, this defense will find a way to win.
- Lock of the Week: Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers. Carolina is a great team, and I am completely on board. Washington has it's moments, but they capitalized on a very weak New Orleans defense and aren't that good. Carolina should handily beat them, and Carolina's defense should absolutely eat up Kirk Cousins and an inconsistent offense.

NFL Predictions: Week 10

Ugh, brutal week. This has to be a week where I revisit my outlooks on teams, as there were a handful of teams in which I am completely baffled by week-in/week-out. So much inconsistency out of teams this year, but that's what the NFL is. Hopefully I can bounce back from a rough week 9.
Week: 5-8
Overall: 65-62-5

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (NYJ -2.5) -> New York Jets
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (GB -11.5) -> Green Bay Packers
Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -1.5) -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers @ Tennessee Titans (CAR -4.5) -> Carolina Panthers
Chicago Bears @ St. Louis Rams (STL -7.5) -> Chicago Bears
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins (NO -1) -> New Orleans Saints
Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -6.5) -> Philadelphia Eagles
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -5.5) -> Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -5.5) -> Jacksonville Jaguars
Minnesota Vikings @ Oakland Raiders (OAK -3.5) -> Oakland Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (DEN -6.5) -> Denver Broncos
New England Patriots @ New York Giants (NE -7) -> New England Patriots
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -3) -> Arizona Cardinals
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -11) -> Cincinnati Bengals

A couple notes...
- I have no idea what to think of the Saints, but when it comes down to it, I would still be surprised if they lose to Washington. Should be a high scoring game, but I think the Saints pull away with this one.
- Green Bay is in desperate need of a win, and it doesn't get much easier than facing the 1-7 Lions at home. Lambeau Field should provide some life into this Green Bay team after two tough losses to two great teams on the road, and I predict Rodgers to absolutely light up a struggling Lions defense.
- Carolina, New England and Cincinnati all have fairly easy games this week and should continue their undefeated seasons going into week 11 (although everybody always loves a Patriots Giants grudge match).
- Upset of the Week: Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks. This is also my game of the week, as these two teams should feel a sense of urgency in this game, as Arizona is now fighting for a first round bye with Green Bay, and winning in Seattle would go a long way to help that, and Seattle is a few more losses away from being ousted from playoff contention all together. Seattle feels like they've lost their home field dominance (see game versus Lions, one extremely close play and they lose to the worst team in the NFL) and Arizona is a more complete, talented team.
- Lock of the Week: Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers. I explained it above, but Rodgers is going to blow up Detroit's defense, and a struggling Lions offense is just what this Packers D needs to regain it's early season form.
- With Big Ben out, I think Cleveland will be able to keep it close with the Steelers. Although I still think it's ridiculous the Browns aren't playing Manziel, McCown has been good this year and he should outplay Landry Jones.
- Kansas City seems like a team to play Denver well (west coast offense, which alleviates pressure from the QB by getting the ball out of his hands quickly) but Denver is just too good. If Manning has an okay game, this one shouldn't be that close.